It’s getting worse

February 2, 2007

The National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq was such a thorough undertaking, it couldn’t even be completed in time for the president to launch a new escalation policy (which, presumably, would be based in part on the NIE). Given the six months of painstaking work from the entire intelligence community, this would finally be a complete take on conditions, progress, and stability in Iraq.

So, where are we? Nowhere good.

A long-awaited National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, presented to President Bush by the intelligence community yesterday, outlines an increasingly perilous situation in which the United States has little control and there is a strong possibility of further deterioration, according to sources familiar with the document.

In a discussion of whether Iraq has reached a state of civil war, the 90-page classified NIE comes to no conclusion and holds out prospects of improvement. But it couches glimmers of optimism in deep uncertainty about whether the Iraqi leaders will be able to transcend sectarian interests and fight against extremists, establish effective national institutions and end rampant corruption.

The document emphasizes that although al-Qaeda activities in Iraq remain a problem, they have been surpassed by Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence as the primary source of conflict and the most immediate threat to U.S. goals. Iran, which the administration has charged with supplying and directing Iraqi extremists, is mentioned but is not a focus.

Minimal emphasis on Iran? Why, I had been led to believe they were largely responsible for attacks on U.S. troops. No wonder the intelligence on Iran has been delayed….

Indeed, the new Iraq-specific NIE seeks to undercut quite a few White House talking points. To hear Cheney tell it, we need to “confront” Iran in order to “succeed” in Iraq. Apparently, that’s not quite right. For that matter, to hear Bush tell it, al Qaeda is the principal problem fueling the violence in Iraq. Apparently, that’s not quite right, either.

And as for bragging about our “significant progress,” well, that’s just absurd.

I suppose there is one inevitable question: this took six months, thousands of work hours, and the collective judgment of the entire intelligence community?

After six months of grueling work, our intelligence community has apparently produced a 90-page report stating the obvious….

Of course, when it comes to this administration, stating the obvious shouldn’t be underrated. Anything that stands a chance of intruding on their fantasy world is welcome.

Indeed. Reality is reality, disconcerting though it may be.

As for the document itself, the outgoing director of national intelligence, John Negroponte, briefed the president on the Iraq NIE yesterday, and the document will be made available to Congress early today. A two-page declassified version of its key judgments will then be posted on the DNI Web site.

Might it help shape congressional debate on the future of the war? Count on it.

well, dubya…….i think you’re about ready to get bitten by your make-believe reality. i wonder who is going to get fired for making up all these “lies”………

  • I still don’t trust John ‘DeathSquadEnabler’ Negroponte. I’m sorry.

    But if the NIE forces the braindead media to call the administration out on their lies about Iran, then yes, it’s a step forward.

  • Well, frankly, I think this NIE is just hogwash. I disagree totally with its premise. You’re out of line here, CB.

  • Make no mistake, this WH has put our nation on a perilous course with its half-baked foreign policies. No NIE will change the rot George Bush, Dick Cheney and Don Rumsfeld have brought to our country. Yes, Iran is the elephant in the room.

    This Administration’s ambitions need to be checked by Congress and the rest of us. Executive ascendancy is a scary thing! -Kevo

  • U.S. Role in Najaf Massacre Exposed:

    http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=36387

    …The fighting took place on the Diwaniya-Najaf road and spread into nearby date-palm plantations after pilgrims sought refuge there.

    “American helicopters participated in the slaughter,” Jassim Abbas, a farmer from the area told IPS. “They were soon there to kill those pilgrims without hesitation, but they were never there for helping Iraqis in anything they need. We just watched them getting killed group by group while trapped in those plantations.”

    Much of the killing was done by U.S. and British warplanes, eyewitnesses said. …

  • Yeah, I’m with Timpanist (#4)
    The people of America gave President George Washington Bush a man-date to set the policy and actions of this country. That man-date was Jeff Gannon, and he was as credible a reporter as our policy for Iraq, and the hot new product, Iran.
    To take the word of lifetime professionals over a Yale educated CEO president that has demonstrated so much competence in the business world would be foolish. I won’t stand for this disrespect for our troops, mothers, flag and apple pie.
    How dare you sir? At long last, have you no dignity?

  • In other words, they took all this time to write a 90-page report that says the exact same thing bloggers have been saying for a year.

    Our government at work, folks.

    The Decidicator will just ignore it, of course …

  • Stating the obvious emboldens the enemy.
    Adumbration is our only hope.
    It’s so much less stressful to be sitting quietly in the dark.
    Waiting for the Surge of the Shrub.

  • A quote I’m finding increasingly useful over the last six years (from Alice in Wonderland):

    Soon her eye fell on a little glass box that was lying under the table: she opened it, and found in it a very small cake, on which the words `EAT ME’ were beautifully marked in currants. `Well, I’ll eat it,’ said Alice, `and if it makes me grow larger, I can reach the key; and if it makes me grow smaller, I can creep under the door; so either way I’ll get into the garden, and I don’t care which happens!’

  • Spencer Ackerman at TPM:

    Wow, this is grim. According to the just-released Key Judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, political reconciliation is likely a bridge too far over the next year and a half.

    The Sunnis remain “unwilling to accept minority status” and believe the Shiite majority is a stalking horse for Iran. The Shiites remain “deeply insecure” about their hold on power, meaning that the Shiite leadership views U.S.-desired compromises — on oil, federalism and power-sharing — as a threat to its position. Perhaps most ominously, the upcoming referendum on the oil-rich, multi-ethnic city of Kirkuk threatens to be explosive, as the Kurds are determined to finally regain full control over the city.

    Interestingly, the listed prospects for reversing Iraq’s deterioration contradict the NIE’s assessment of where things actually stand. For instance, “broader Sunni acceptance of the current political structure and federalism” and “significant concessions by Shia and Kurds” could lead to stability — but the NIE’s earlier section viewed both these events as unlikely. To put this in the realm of the current debate, President Bush’s “surge” is designed to give political breathing room to events that the intelligence community formally judges as unrealistic:

    “…even if violence is diminished, given the current winner-take-all attitude and sectarian animosities infecting the political scene, Iraqi leaders will be hard pressed to achieve sustained political reconciliation in the time frame of this Estimate.”

    About Iran. This must have been one of the most controversial elements of the estimate: Iraq’s neighbors are “not likely to be a major driver of violence or the prospects for stability because of the self-sustaining character of Iraq’s internal sectarian dynamics.” There’s the expected qualifications that Iran and Syria are up to no good, but this is the major point. In other words, no matter how much Bush wants to lay the blame for the disintegration of Iraq on the meddlesome interference of Iran and Syria, the U.S.-sponsored political process itself — indeed, the new, U.S.-midwifed Iraqi political order — itself sows the seeds for the country’s destruction. Apparently Bush could attack Iran to his heart’s content, and Iraq would still remain inflamed.

    Oh, and one final thought: this is just what’s unclassified. If past NIEs are any prologue, what remains classified is much, much grimmer than what we see here. More likely than not, this is the most optimistic presentation of the NIE possible. Happy Friday.

  • Also from TPM (Paul Kiel):

    With the administration trying to whip up hysteria about Iran’s alleged training of attackers, Tom Lasseter of McClatchy details Muqtada al-Sadr’s success in getting the U.S. to train his own men:

    After U.S. units pounded al-Sadr’s men in August 2004, the cleric apparently decided that instead of facing American tanks, he’d use the Americans’ plans to build Iraqi security forces to rebuild his own militia.
    So while Iraq’s other main Shiite militia, the Badr Brigade, concentrated in 2005 on packing Iraqi intelligence bureaus with high-level officers who could coordinate sectarian assassinations, al-Sadr went after the rank and file.

    His recruits began flooding into the Iraqi army and police, receiving training, uniforms and equipment either directly from the U.S. military or from the American-backed Iraqi Defense Ministry.

    The result:

    “Half of them are [Mahdi army]. They’ll wave at us during the day and shoot at us during the night,” said 1st Lt. Dan Quinn, a platoon leader in the Army’s 1st Infantry Division…. “People (in America) think it’s bad, but that we control the city [Baghdad]. That’s not the way it is. They control it, and they let us drive around. It’s hostile territory.”

  • Seriously this time (sorry for the silly snark on #7)
    This is going to be a huge test of wills for the differing American constituancies.
    I think that the majority of us have seen that this was a royal screw-up from the start, and now want us out.
    But the Big Oil producers (and the stupid right wingnuts) are peeing in their pants because they are so scared. Throw in the big money people who depend on America getting cheap oil (U.S. brand SUV makers, road builders, airlines) and there’s a lot of money lobbying for us to stay.
    I think that it’s blood for oil.
    Who’s going to win?

  • Bring on the investigations. Let’s find out how much of this Bush knew about before declaring his state of surge. Same thing with Cheney, Negroponte, Rice—the whole blasted bunch. Get this out onto the airwaves, and play it over and over, until people can’t help but remember what this president and his minions have done to the United states of America….

  • Civil war? What civil war? Only in DC can you point to something that is worse than the term discussed (civil war) and say Hey, it’s not that bad.

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