There’s ample evidence that far-right GOP activists and talk-show hosts have been surprisingly vocal in their opposition to John McCain’s presidential campaign, but in some ways, they’re Johnny Come Latelys — the religious right hated McCain before hating McCain was cool.
In 2000, James Dobson went so far as to issue a personal press release, specifically to “clarify his lack of support for Senator McCain.” Dobson said, “The Senator is being touted by the media as a man of principle, yet he was involved with other women while married to his first wife.” He also cautioned that McCain’s character was “reminiscent” of Bill Clinton’s — possibly the ultimate insult in conservative circles.
That, of course, wasn’t too long after McCain had condemned Dobson’s religious right colleagues as “agents of intolerance.” Since then, McCain has at least made overtures to the Taliban wing of the Republican Party, showing up at Liberty University and flip-flopping a bit on issues like gay marriage and intelligent design creationism.
Has it made any difference? Apparently not — Dobson has a long memory, and this week issued a statement similar to the one from eight years ago.
“I am convinced Sen. McCain is not a conservative, and in fact, has gone out of his way to stick his thumb in the eyes of those who are. He has at times sounded more like a member of the other party.
“McCain actually considered leaving the GOP in 2001 and approached John Kerry about being Kerry’s running mate in 2004. McCain also said publicly that Hillary Clinton would make a good president. Given these and many other concerns, a spoonful of sugar does not make the medicine go down. I cannot, and I will not, vote for Sen. John McCain, as a matter of conscience.
“But what a sad and melancholy decision this is for me and many other conservatives. Should John McCain capture the nomination as many assume, I believe this general election will offer the worst choices for president in my lifetime. I certainly can’t vote for Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama based on the virulently anti-family policy positions. If these are the nominees in November, I simply will not cast a ballot for president for the first time in my life.”
Drama aside, this isn’t especially surprising. Indeed, I’m confident that Dobson will work to undermine McCain at every opportunity the rest of the year.
As I suggested last week, he doesn’t have much of a choice. Dobson has political power in conservative circles based on the perception that he can a) ruin Republican lawmakers who break ranks on issues important to the religious right movement; and b) elevate lawmakers to higher office who play by the movement’s rules.
McCain is in a position to peel pack the curtain and make Dobson and his cohorts look powerless. Indeed, he’s already made Dobson look pretty feckless by surging to the front of the GOP back and becoming the presumptive nominee.
How will Dobson be able to threaten Republican officials into submission if pols can thrive just fine despite drawing Dobson’s ire?
Josh Marshall argued today:
If McCain can win with Rush and Coulter and the rest of them openly and volubly against them, it will mean that they’re paper tigers. And their juice in GOP circles will be greatly diminished. Not that people won’t still listen to Rush’s show and he won’t make money selling racist songs on his subscription only website, but GOP pols will feel much freer to ignore him. The fact that he’s on track to win the nomination is bad enough. They can only recover if he loses the general. Then they’ll argue that it was because he bucked the Movement conservatives.
Josh didn’t mention Dobson, but the same dynamic certainly applies. In fact, it’s arguably worse for Dobson than it is for Limbaugh — Rush will continue to be some radio clown, making money off of advertisers. Dobson, on the other hand, collects checks from donors who expect him to help drive the Republican agenda. If he can’t even stop an annoying senator from getting the Republican nomination, why would his followers bother sending him more money?
On a related note, of course, Republican leaders won’t be afraid of him anymore, because they’ll see his threats don’t amount to much. Why jump when Dobson demands it if he has no real electoral influence?
With that in mind, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Dobson became a very active campaigner during the general election, working to undermine McCain at every turn. If Dobson is successful, and McCain loses, Dobson will say, “See? I still have power, and you still need to take me seriously.”
And if McCain wins in spite of Dobson’s enmity, Dobson’s power will probably never recover.