It’s only the fastest growing swing-vote constituency in the nation

July 20, 2006

Once in a while, we’ll hear a Republican lawmaker express concern that the party’s recent rhetoric on immigration has been so over the top that the GOP risks driving Hispanic voters away for the indefinite future. Apparently, the party should probably pay closer attention to those warnings.

A new poll of Spanish-speaking voters shows significant damage to the standing of President Bush and the Republican Party as a consequence of the debate over immigration policy.

The poll, produced by the NDN’s Hispanic Strategy Center has found that “the standing of President Bush and Republicans has dramatically declined with these critical swing voters, potentially wiping out Republican gains made during the Bush years.”

Hispanics are disappointed with Bush and unhappy with Republican government. Recent electoral gains made by Bush in this community have been wiped out. No matter how the numbers are cut, President Bush and the Republicans have seen a dramatic eroding of their standing with Spanish-speaking Hispanic voters.

In 2004 Kerry beat Bush 59%-40% with all Hispanics, and 52%-48% with those Spanish-dominant. In this survey Hispanics confirmed the closeness of the 2004 result. When asked who “did you vote for in 2004?” the result came back 38%-36% Kerry-Bush.

When asked how they would vote if the Presidential election were held today, this group gives Democrats a remarkable 36-point advantage (59%-23%). For Republicans this is a dramatic drop from the 52%-48% Kerry-Bush result with the Spanish-speaking sub-group in 2004.

Bush’s standing with this group has plummeted. In the 2004 cycle, Bush regularly received a 60% favorable rating from Hispanics. In our survey this was reversed, as 38% see him favorably, 58% unfavorably, with 40% very unfavorable towards the President.

In the last three presidential elections, Republicans have seen their percentage of the Hispanic vote increase from 21% in 1996, to 35% in 2000, to 40% in 2004. And now, this poll suggests the fastest growing swing-vote constituency in the nation is moving away from the GOP in droves.

Spanish voters seem to have a better grasp of their real interests than your run-of-mill redneck.

  • He’s not going to get any brownie points with blacks, either, after his today’s speech at NAACP (see Think Progress. Sorry; don’t know how to embed URLS). Of all dead horses to try to ride with that particular audience, “death tax” is probably the deadest.

    What an idiot!

  • I’ve been listening to excepts from his NAACP address, libra—and I never expected that the NAACP could hate someone so much as to applaud with “golf clapping.”

    Right now—given the political damage he’s done—I don’t think even Diebold can save the collective, sorry hides of the GOP this fall.Hasn’t “Daddy Dearest” disowned him yet?

  • This actually seems like an odd reason for Hispanics to be upset with Bush. After all, despite all of the posturing, we still have no immigration policy in this country. Additionally, Bush’s stance on the issue is quite moderate when compared to many Republicans. Perhaps this is one case where the GOP as a whole is actually making Bush look bad?

  • It’s really unsurprising, when you consider that Mexican-Americans, particularly, among all Latinos, are historically among the most patriotic communities we have. They volunteer for military service out of proportion to their numbers, and not just because they have to take economic opportunity where they find it, but because they beieve in the country. So they have some pretty high losses in Iraq (just look at all the Hispanic names on the casualty lists), and that’s bound to get people to start asking questions about the stupidity of this war. If Latinos turn against it, the Army press gangs will be hurting to get their “warm bodies”.

  • “Hasn’t “Daddy Dearest” disowned [Boy George II] yet?” – Steve

    As long as Babs loves him, what else matters?

  • “After all, despite all of the posturing, we still have no immigration policy in this country.” – TL

    Sure we do. We let 2.3 million of them in over the last five years, half of whom are illegal, and they just happen to number exactly the same as the growth of native men who have joined the labor force. And there are only jobs for the immigrants.

    It’s a fact, none of your male friends who have joined the work force got a job unless they displaced another native born American male below retirement age.

  • Lance, if that’s what you want to call a policy, fine by me. I think we have laws (no illegal immigration, no illegal workers, etc.), but no policy to enforce those laws.

  • Actually, Rove admits that Bush has allowed in six million illegal aliens since 2001.

    Given that number, and all the insane comments Bush and Rove had made, one wonders exactly what he would have to do to “get the Hispanic vote”.

    Of course, an alternate explanation is that there really is no “Hispanic vote”.

  • Hi TL,

    Policy is what you DO, laws are what you write up. We don’t have laws about ‘illegal’ immigration, we have laws that say how you may legally immigrate and how you may legally visit (tourist, business, student). The dangeous illegals (like the 9/11 highjackers) visit legally and overstay their visas. And seriously, we do not guard our northern border. There is nothing preventing people from walking into this country anytime they want.

    Illegal workers are another matter. How can you tell someone that they can’t work? That is just sick, asking an able-bodied person to give up the opportunity for employment. Now, illegal hiring, that I can see punishing. And despite the recent WaPo article from the undersecretary of labor (I think that was her) about enforcing the 1986 workplace provisions, the Bushites have been horribly lax about it. Which might explain why in the last few years, the number of American men of working age (18-65) has grown by 2.3 million but their participation in the workforce has grown by…

    … wait for it…

    ZERO!

    At the same time the workforce has grown by…

    … guess? …

    … 2.3 million legal and illegal immigrants (about half illegal).

    Is it any wonder the American People don’t find Boy George II’s economic ‘boom’ so comforting?

    If you want a policy based on our laws, than don’t put a Texas Mafia Chamber of Commerce Conservative Bushite administration in charge.

    Yah, I know, you and the American People didn’t vote for Boy George II. Neither did I.

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