It’s Super Tuesday — Do you know where your 3,156 delegates are?

February 5, 2008

Asked to assess the Super Tuesday landscape, Democratic strategist Bill Carrick told the WaPo yesterday, “To paraphrase Churchill, the Democrats are at the end of the beginning and the Republicans are at the beginning of the end.” That sounds about right.

We’ll probably never have an actual national primary, but today is about as close as we’ll get. Between the two parties, there are 43 contests, in two dozen states and American Samoa, with 3,156 delegates up for grabs today, making it the biggest primary day in the history of U.S. presidential campaigns.

About a month ago, the widely-held assumption was that by tomorrow morning, we’d know who the presumptive nominees would be. That now appears to be only half-right.

Any forecast has to be taken advisedly, given the twists the campaign has already seen.

Depending on the outcome, Super Tuesday could give McCain a big boost toward securing the GOP nomination. Polls show him running ahead of Romney in some big winner-take-all states, which could significantly pad McCain’s delegate count and lengthen the odds that Romney can overtake him.

For Democrats, it is hard to envision anything other than a continued fight between Clinton and Obama. The proportional allocation of delegates and the fact both are waging well-financed, strongly competitive campaigns suggests each will walk away today claiming a victory of some sort. That gives both a strong incentive to press on as the race heads into Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia for next week’s contests on “Chesapeake Tuesday.”

One of the few certainties is that today, tonight, and early tomorrow will be dizzying. As Walter Shapiro explained quite nicely, “Making sense of Tuesday’s orgy of primaries and caucuses in 24 states (plus American Samoa for the Democrats) will be like watching an old-fashioned pinball game from inside the machine. Lights will be flashing, balls will be whizzing, bumpers will be bouncing, sirens will be screaming, and near-incomprehensible numbers will be exploding on the scoreboard.”

Take a deep breath.

So, we’ve all been hearing all about the scope of the contests, but who, exactly, is voting today? If my count is right:

Alabama, Alaska, American Samoa, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Democrats Abroad, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Utah.

Predicting winners with this kind of line-up is incredibly tricky, but I think Marc Ambinder’s take on the Democrats sounds about right:

According to campaign sources, polling and stealing off other analysts, Hillary Clinton has an edge in New York, New Jersey, Tennessee, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Arkansas.

Obama has an edge in Idaho, Colorado, Minnesota, Kansas, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota and Illinois.

Tossups: California, Connecticut, Democrats Abroad, Arizona, Missouri, Delaware, Utah, American Samoa, Alaska, Massachusetts

I’d just add that looking at states instead of delegates is itself tricky, given that delegates are awarded on a proportional basis. Jeff Greenfield explained, “This may well lead to some serious head-scratching. In California, for example, if Clinton wins with 50.1 percent of the vote in a congressional district that has three delegates, then she gets to take two delegates, and Obama gets to take one. But if she wins a congressional district with four delegates 60 percent to 40 percent, she gets two and Obama gets two. (The number of delegates allocated to each district depends on the Democratic vote for president last time around.) In this and just about every midsize and large state, it is possible to win more votes than your opponent — and fewer delegates.”

Never a dull moment, right?

Fortunately, the State of Washington found a way to make us northwesters (1) irrelevant and (2) confused by holding both Caucuses and Primaries but on different dates, neither of which is Super-Duper Tuesday.

The Washington Democratic party holds a series of caucuses that begins on 02/09/2008 with the Precinct Caucuses. This is followed by the Legislative District Caucuses on 04/05/2008, County Conventions and Legislative District Caucuses 04/19/2008 and the final Congressional District Caucuses on 05/17/2008, where the delegates and alternates are selected for the National Convention. There is also a non-binding Democratic primary on 2/19/2008.

How ya like them apples?!

  • Following the BEST Super Bowl of all time, this Super Tuesday could go down in the “record books” with two very interesting races… Doesn’t get any better than this!

  • Oklahoma allows early voting at the county election board offices. I can’t get to my polling place today, so I voted yesterday!

    We have been getting hourly TV ads from Obama and Clinton all weekend and through last night. Obama’s ad pitching his health care plan is effective on its surface, with a subtle swipe at Clinton just below the surface. Hillary’s ad is nothing but feel-good generalities.

    McCain is far ahead in the Oklahoma polls, and I think that the Republican primary is winner-take-all. That must by why I haven’t seen any ads from Romney or McCain.

    I’ve received no robocalls at all, although they are legal here.

    We won’t be able to do much today and tonight but wonder. By tomorrow morning the pattern (if there is one) should be clearer.

  • At this stage of things, I would actually not mind a little “dull.”

    In fact, I think of that time when the polls are open and people are voting as being somewhat of an oasis of calm. Last election cycle, I signed up to be an election judge, assigned to my precinct for both the primary and the general, and will do so again this year – next Tuesday. What I remember from last time is that being in the precinct from about 6 am until after 10pm, I was cut off from all the newsbabble, and by the time I got in the car, races had been called for the most part. It was the most painless election I can remember (I was tired from having been up since 5 am, and with heavy turnout, hardly had a minute of downtime, but I think I will take that kind of tired over the kind that comes with being on the edge of my seat for hours).

    Today’s outcome will be what it will be. It will be spun and re-spun, put under microscopes of both parties and all campaigns, the meaning will be divined and argued about, there will be happiness and disappointment and everything in-between.

    Let’s not forget, while we are obsessing about the presidential contests, that there is more at stake. Congressional primaries are also taking place, and I believe that what happens in the Congress will be a key element in setting the agenda and effecting change.

    Good luck to all who are voting today, and to the candidates you are supporting. Above all, thanks to all who believe in the process, who view voting as the responsibility we accept for the privilege of living in a free society.

  • Apparently, Virginia, Maryland and DC are going to vote on the 12th. Which not only makes media buys more practical (Baltimore, DC, Richmond, Hampton Roads) but means with Super Tuesday splitting WE GET TO HAVE A VOICE.

    Yah!

  • As another Pacific Northwesterner, I just want to mention again how irritated I am that our primaries aren’t until freakin’ May. My primary vote is almost certain to be more pro forma than anything else. /grumble/

  • Following the BEST Super Bowl of all time, this Super Tuesday could go down in the “record books” with two very interesting races… Doesn’t get any better than this! -JRS Jr

    We’ve really got to stop all of this agreeing all the time.

    Truly, that was a great game. Too bad I had the stomach flu all weekend and spent two days in bed. The only thing that would’ve made that game better is hot wings and a cold one. Instead I was sipping water and fighting a fever.

    I’m sure today will seem like the Superbowl for political junkies. Hope the underdog wins, again! Wait…which one is the underdog?

  • Stacy6 —

    North Carolina doesn’t vote until freakin’ May either. But I don’t know that our votes will be “more pro forma than anything else.” It seems very likely to me that this actually ends up being a brokered convention, so the more votes that go to whoever your particular candidate is — Obama for me — the better equipped that candidate will be to wrestle for the actual nomination.

  • I’m another of those Northwesterners. My ballot for the primary came on Monday. All of the people who stood as candidates are still on the ballot since most of them withdrew after the ballots were printed.

    I’m going to vote for Chris Dodd.

    Not because it will mean anything — a vote for Obama or Clinton won’t mean anything since the Democrats in Washington are ignoring the primary votes when awarding delegates.

    Mr. Dodd has been the political leader in this country who has spent the most time and political capitol fighting for the issues that I believe in most. Since I can’t vote for the man in his district, it seems a small, although ultimately meaningless way to say thanks.

  • Making sense of Tuesday’s orgy of primaries and caucuses in 24 states (plus American Samoa for the Democrats) will be like watching an old-fashioned pinball game from inside the machine. Lights will be flashing, balls will be whizzing, bumpers will be bouncing, sirens will be screaming, and near-incomprehensible numbers will be exploding on the scoreboard

    Or you could just wait until the game stops and see the final score. By tomorrow at this time we’ll have a decent idea how it went down, though apparently we’re not likely to have a nominee. Personally I’m not liking the idea of going all the way to the convention – McCain will have the whole time between now and August to get geared up for the general, while our guy/gal will still be fighting his/her primary opponent.

  • Nebraska’s democrats are caucusing for the first time on Saturday. I think for the first time in my life I might actually have a say in the presidential primary … and general election for that matter since Nebraska has always gone “red” with its electoral votes … I think things might be different this time around. I agree that waiting for the results is nerve-racking to say the least.

  • Like Anne, I’ll be an officer of elections in our precinct next week (but in VA, not MD). So, this evening is my training session (4th; it’s compulsory for everyone, no matter how long you’ve been doing it. Me, I still need them). A good way to spend time instead of cruising the Intertubes trying to tell what’s happening elsewhere 🙂

  • Ooh, Swellsman, I take it back. I didn’t believe it yesterday, but I believe today that my primary vote might count for something real in May.

    • Comments are closed.