As I understand it, “Godwin’s Law” (aka “Godwin’s rule of Nazi analogies”) basically says the first side that brings up Hitler in a political debate loses. With this in mind, I think Virginia gubernatorial candidate Jerry Kilgore (R) has a problem.
After leading the race for months, Kilgore saw the polls tightening considerably in recent weeks against Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine (D). In the hopes that one devastating TV ad could turn the race around, Kilgore’s campaign unveiled an ad titled, “Stanley,” featuring Stanley Rosenbluth talking about the tragic killing of his son and daughter-in-law. Viewers are told:
“Tim Kaine voluntarily represented the person who murdered my son. He stood with murderers in trying to get them off death row.
“No matter how heinous the crime, he doesn’t believe that death is a punishment. Tim Kaine says that Adolf Hitler doesn’t qualify for the death penalty. This was the… the worst mass murderer in modern times. Being as liberal as he is and the death penalty, he’s not representing everybody in the state.
“I don’t trust Tim Kaine when it comes to the death penalty. And I say that as a father whose had a son murdered. And the people of Virginia are entitled to know just what Tim Kaine is and what he stands for.”
On the demagoguery scale, this ad, paid for by the Kilgore campaign, scores pretty high. As a rule, when one side accuses the other of being soft on Hitler, you know a campaign has reached a certain depth. As the Washington Post put it in an editorial, the ad is “a low moment in Virginia politics, and in Mr. Kilgore’s otherwise solid career in public service.”
There are three things to consider with an ad like this: 1) the content; 2) the political context; and 3) the effectiveness.
First, the ad itself hopes to scare voters by combining Kaine’s opposition to the death penalty with the fact that Kaine was a criminal defense attorney. Kaine does oppose capital punishment on personal grounds, though he said he’d enforce it as governor. But the latter point is more absurd. Kaine defended a client who faced a murder charge. To hear Kilgore’s ad, that should mean Kaine is barred from public office forever.
The argument is clearly misguided. Chief Justice John Roberts has done similar work, as has Ken Starr and Miguel Estrada, Bush’s unsuccessful nominee to the U.S. Court of Appeals. Kaine, like his legal colleagues, believes everyone is entitled to a defense and represented a client accordingly. Kilgore surely knows this.
But that’s where the political context kicks in. Kilgore, with his lead slipping away and just a few weeks left, became desperate enough to make an ad like this. A candidate with a double-digit lead doesn’t need to invoke Hitler to win. It’s an ad borne of weakness.
It’s also a double-edged sword. If voters respond to the ad and see Kaine as a murder’s ally, Kilgore wins. If voters are disgusted by the over-the-top demagoguery, Kilgore loses. How’s this ad working out? So far, not well.
A new SurveyUSA poll, conducted after “Stanley” hit the airwaves, shows Kaine with his first lead in the race, 47% to 45%. A month ago, Kilgore led by three, making this a 5-point swing.
Time will tell if Kaine’s lead holds, but this is a chance for Virginia voters to send a message: there are limits of decency in campaign advertising. Jerry Kilgore has crossed them.