John Edwards has been in a bit of bind for several months now. His first term as a senator from North Carolina ends next year, but he’s also seeking the Democratic nomination for president. For Edwards, the Senate seat has always been something of a fallback position. He can run for president, and if it doesn’t work out, he could head home and run for re-election.
That may be Edwards’ plan, but it’s not working well for the state party and other Democrats in North Carolina. On the other side of the aisle, state Republicans appear to be rallying around Rep. Richard Burr to run next year, whether Edwards is in the race or not. With this in mind, several Dems who would like to run against Burr if Edwards does not are anxious to get started.
Edwards, meanwhile, doesn’t want to be rushed. This isn’t working.
At least three high-profile N.C. Dems — former-State Rep. Dan Blue, former-Clinton chief of staff Erskine Bowles, and Rep. Bobby Etheridge — realize two things. First, if they’re going to mount a successful Senate campaign, they need to start very soon. Second, they can’t start at all unless Edwards says for sure whether or not he’s going to give up his presidential campaign and run for a second Senate term.
With this in mind, speculation as to Edwards’ intentions is fairly intense. If I were a betting man, I’d say Edwards will announce that he’s in the presidential campaign for good sometime in the next month or so and will give the other Dems the green light to pursue their own Senate campaigns.
Edwards will officially kickoff his campaign on Sept. 16 in his hometown of Robbins, N.C. A close Carpetbagger source told me yesterday that Edwards may take the opportunity to say that he’s in the presidential race for the long haul at that time.
To be sure, Edwards can’t be blamed for wanting to keep his options open. His presidential campaign has not yet caught on and he’s trailing badly in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. He’s been counting on winning the South Carolina primary, held just a week after the New Hampshire primary, to demonstrate his ability to win in the South, where candidates like Dean, Kerry, and Lieberman have less support. But the polls in South Carolina don’t look particularly strong for Edwards either.
Nevertheless, Edwards seems committed to the race and hopes to catch fire once he starts spending more money.
If Edwards is even thinking about dropping out, he’s not acting like it. Just this week, he opened another campaign field office in South Carolina. Moreover, his presidential campaign is raiding his Senate staff for personnel, as evidenced by Carlos Monje moving from Edwards’ Capitol Hill office to the campaign staff.
Edwards really wants to give this presidential campaign his total focus. I respect that, but I nevertheless think it’s kind of a shame. I just don’t see how he can win the nomination at this point, and one of his more persuasive selling points — he’s a young, smart Dem from the South — will be undermined if Gen. Clark enters the race.
My preference would be to see Edwards commit himself to running for re-election to the Senate, gain a few more years of experience, and maybe try his hand at a national campaign again in 2008. As it is, he’ll probably give up on the Senate race, lose the presidential campaign, and be out of government entirely in 2005.
It’s a shame because Edwards is a very bright, articulate, and aggressive lawmaker. Maybe President Clark/Dean/Kerry/Lieberman/Gephardt can nominate him to be attorney general or something.