Joint Chiefs, public balk at Bush plan for escalation

Last week, the WaPo noted that the White House, hoping to rally support for a “double down” troop escalation in Iraq, was running into some resistance among the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Since then, the division has grown more stark — the Bush gang has rallied behind the idea of sending up to 30,000 more troops into Iraq, and the Joint Chiefs are unanimous in their opposition.

[T]he Joint Chiefs think the White House, after a month of talks, still does not have a defined mission and is latching on to the surge idea in part because of limited alternatives, despite warnings about the potential disadvantages for the military, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the White House review is not public.

The chiefs have taken a firm stand, the sources say, because they believe the strategy review will be the most important decision on Iraq to be made since the March 2003 invasion.

At regular interagency meetings and in briefing President Bush last week, the Pentagon has warned that any short-term mission may only set up the United States for bigger problems when it ends.

This strikes me as a rather stunning story. The nation’s top uniformed leaders see a disaster in the making and appear to be convinced that the president not only has no plan, but has no clue.

Bush could “surge” 30,000 troops, the Joint Chiefs believe, but it would likely only make matters worse, with more al Qaeda attacks, more targets for Sunni insurgents, and more foreign fighters flocking to Iraq to attack U.S. troops. For that matter, the Joint Chiefs suggested that well-armed Shiite militias would lie low during the escalation, only to retake the streets after it’s over. The Joint Chiefs also warned, the WaPo noted, that “even the announcement of a time frame and mission — such as for six months to try to secure volatile Baghdad — could play to armed factions by allowing them to game out the new U.S. strategy.”

But other than that, they love the idea.

I don’t mean to make light of this; it’s obviously a dreadful, dire situation. But the larger dynamic is also bordering on ridiculous. The top uniformed leaders in the military want the president to give them a reason to support an escalation, and he can’t. He wants to “surge,” not because it’s a good idea, but because he can’t think of anything else. The Joint Chiefs don’t think that’s good enough. So, what’s next?

Kevin Drum summarized this nicely.

If the Chiefs stand their ground, it will be very difficult for Bush to buck them. But if he gives up on the surge, what possible alternative can he offer that even remotely seems like a serious change of direction? Rock, meet hard place.

And as long as we’re on the subject, it’s worth adding that Americans have been hearing about an escalation plan for a few weeks now — and they’re dead set against it.

Fewer than a third of Americans still support the war in Iraq, and more than half say they want U.S. troops out of the country within a year, according to a CNN poll released Monday.

Support for the conflict fell to a new low of 31 percent in the poll, conducted Friday through Sunday by Opinion Research Corporation, while a record 67 percent expressed opposition to the nearly 4-year-old war.

Nearly three-quarters said Bush administration policy needs a complete overhaul or major changes. But only 11 percent of those polled backed calls to send more American troops to Iraq, as President Bush is said to be considering.

As Jay Leno recently joked, “CNN said today that President Bush is seriously considering sending more troops to Iraq. So apparently, his goal is to achieve a negative popularity rating.”

For the first time I have a little bit of hope that BushCo won’t be able to just bull ahead on their “surge” or on their big Iranian adventure. They now have, officially, zero cover from anyone that matters.

Atrios may disagree, as he says repeatedly that Bush will just do what he wants and why would anyone think otherwise based on the record. He’s probably right, but then again maybe not this time.

Or, as Atrios would say, if wishes were ponies.

  • Why do the Joint Chiefs hate America? (unanimously!) 🙂

    I guess McCain’s military genius is also plain to see.

  • Since we’ve taken impeachment of Cheney/Bush “off the table”, I guess it’s up to the Praetorian Guard to keep them from doing any further damage.

  • Boy George II has to “surge” the 30,000 men into Iraq to top McCan’t and see that he can’t in two years complain that America would have won in Iraq if we had just put in more troops.

    Of course McCan’t has been calling for more troops since 2003, but it’s the statements he’s made since the 2006 election that will be compared to BG2’s actions.

    I’m pretty convinced that the Bushites do not want McCan’t as the next president. There are probably too many little indiscrections to have an “Honest” Republican’t looking through their files. Of course, they still have to stonewall the Dems for two years.

  • From the WaPo article, a familiar phrase pops out: “clean break”

    …another independent report on Iraq strategy is being issued today by the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based crisis monitoring group that includes several former U.S. officials. It calls for more far-reaching policy revisions and reversals than did even the Iraq Study Group report…

    …The new report calls the study group’s recommendations “not nearly radical enough” and says that “its prescriptions are no match for its diagnosis.” It continues: “What is needed today is a clean break both in the way the U.S. and other international actors deal with the Iraqi government, and in the way the U.S. deals with the region…”

    Now where have I heard that expression before… Hmmmm…

    I’m sure the neocons won’t like it being used this way though, boo hoo.

    And here’s who the experts say we’re currently fighting for: …The Iraqi government and military should not be treated as “privileged allies” because they are not partners in efforts to stem the violence but rather parties to the conflict, it says. Trying to strengthen the fragile government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will not contribute to Iraq’s stability…

    Got that, Mr Bush? Strengthening the government of Iraq does not contribute to Iraq’s stability.

    Stick a fork in us, we’re done.

  • I’m with Ed. If Harry and Nancy can’t get it done, then maybe the Army can drag Herr Bush and hig gang of thuggish thieves from their pedestals of power. Kicking and screaming all the way, preferably. It’ll make good copy for the cameras….

  • But but but….All this time, Bush has insisted that the troop level in Iraq is based on what the Generals ask for. Now, he’s considering ignoring their recommendations, and doing so quite publicly.
    Wingnuts are running out of people to blame. So far, we’re losing Iraq because of: Liberals, Democrats, media, American civilians, and now the Pentagon brass. Pretty soon they’ll be down to blaming it on the Easter Bunny and alien abductions.

  • The only effective tool that the joint Chiefs have is resignation. They can’t refuse the orders and keep their jobs and they can’t publicly campaign against the CIC’s decisions while they hold their jobs.

    What makes me doubtful about their willingness to put Country ahead of Career is that they are all Rumsfeld’s boys: they either sold out to be Cheifs or they actually agreed with Rumsfeld/Bush. The highly principled intelligent strategists were all driven out early in bush’s first term.

    I think we have a problem.

  • Yesterday, as we are all aware, the Pentagon released a report on violence in Iraq. The report recorded the highest average number of attacks and highest average number of people killed or wounded per attack since 2004. Here is Juan Cole’s take on that report.

    What the report does not say is that this period coincides with a major US military operation, “Together Forward” intended to restore security in the capital, involving sweeps of Sunni Arab and some Shiite neighborhoods. That is to say, the operation not only did not make things better, things got worse during it. The military beefed up the US troop contingent in Baghdad significantly for the operation, including moving 3,700 troops down from Mosul. It is this sort of thing that convinces me that an extra 20,000 troops for Iraq is not going to make a difference.

    Cole, I am certain, means a positive difference since what ther report suggests, as the JCS have noted, is that military operations have the reverse of their intended effect. I wonder if it was this report which convince the the JCS of the futility of escalation?

  • i would say that it’s about fucking time that the joint chiefs did their job and insisted upon a clearly defined mission.

    among the many, many personal and professional failures that got us into this disaster, that of colin powell and the joint chiefs looms quite large: i am among those who believe that powell was the only man in america who could have headed off this war (and you can see that he is desperately trying to recapture his reputation), but the joint chiefs could surely have done more to limit the extent of the mess.

    instead, they kissed up and kicked down. what a disgrace.

    let’s hope they’ve come to their senses and stand firm against idiocy that sacrifices american soldiers.

  • howard sez: …you can see that [Colin Powell] is desperately trying to recapture his reputation…

    At the link below you can see a YouTube video showing Powell being asked whether he knew that Hussein Kamel had told his interregators that Saddam had disarmed, and Powell defensively yells “of course not” even though there is no way he didn’t know that fact.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5a-sM7plGXA

    Powell knows his reputation is shot, and he’s pissed. I hope he writes a tell-all book soon, that would be the only way he could redeem himself.

  • My big question is where the new SecDef stands on this. Is he going to go with the JCS, and risk “taking sides against the family”?

    JoeW, you forgot to add the Iraqis to the “who to blame” list.

  • So what do wingnuts think of this, I wonder? I admit I’m being lazy by asking someone else instead of doing it myself, so feel free to ignore this, but right-wing blogs are more likely to be NSFW (at least, where I work) than my usual sites. Are they just sticking their heads in the sand about every bit of Iraq and Bush these days? Are the clichĂ©d parodies (“why does XYZ hate the troops!!?!”) close to the truth? Other than those options, I really can’t imagine anything else for any blog that was still supporting Republicans up until the elections.

  • When we were younger, we thought Baghdad Bob was such a loon …

    “Faltering forces of infidels cannot just enter a country of 26 million people and lay besiege to them! They are the ones who will find themselves under siege. Therefore, in reality whatever this miserable Rumsfeld has been saying, he was talking about his own forces. Now even the American command is under siege.”

    Four years laters, we have found how much smarter he has become.

  • Looks like BushBaby and the McCainiac think they’re playing poker. McCain calls for 20K. Bush raises him by 10K. I wonder if McCain will now say nothing less than 40 will do the job.

    And could someone explain why an Administration that would classify the time of day if it could is trumpeting its plans so far in advance? Hello Iraqi people, we might send more people you don’t want to your country. Please remain calm and ignore all of that talk about an 80% Solution.

    As for the JCs, I wonder how long it will take Emperor Simian to declare them enemy combatants?

  • Via Think Progress.

    SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Aides say the president is weighing his numerous options for changing tactics in Iraq, following his consultations last week with Iraqi leaders and advisers at the Pentagon and State.

    Sources say one conservative policy group that has the president’s ear and is influencing his thinking is the American Enterprise Institute. It briefed White House officials last week about its own report, which dismisses the Iraq Study Group’s recommendation to move U.S. troops from fighting positions to training Iraqi soldiers.

    FREDERICK W. KAGAN: A surge of two or three months is not going to be productive. We’re proposing a surge that would probably last for anywhere from 18 to 24 months. At the end of that, we would expect that we will have brought the security situation sufficiently under control.

    Yesterday’s NYTimes Op-Ed piece by Ben Connable, a Marine major who has served in Iraq, discusses what has happened in Anbar province as troops were removed and returned. It doesn’t paint a pretty picture. One can infer from it that once US troops are removed from Iraq all hell will break out, at least in the short term. Bush doesn’t want that to happen on his watch, hence a plan such as Kagan’s which defers withdrawal until someone else is sitting in the Oval Office would be very appealing to Junior. It would also give neocons like Kagan an excuse for failure. The next president, under whom the chaos will unfurl, will likely not be advised by neocons. Hence when the Wurtlizer starts to shift the blame to the new president, the neocons will benefit from the blame shifting.
    But I don’t think that is Kagan’s primary motivation. He is a true believer and does not want to abandon his little project.

  • A reason not considered so far for the “surge” is a way to bring reinforcements to Iraq because of pending hostilities with Iran. A second aircraft carrier will be in position within the next month off Iran’s coast. Lieberphlegm, McCain and 4 other Republicrooks are likely supporters for war with Iran. I read some of the comments at the Lieberphlegm and John (torture is ok sometimes) McCain link and they love the idea of a McCain/Lieberphlegm ticket in ’08. When exactly did our democracy become a prostitute?

    US to increase naval force to intimidate Iran, not for an attack

    In Israel, Lieberman and McCain “slam” Iraq Study Group report (interesting that supposed Dem./Ind. Lieberphlegm is on a trip with 4 Republicants. Thanks a lot, Connecticut.)

  • FWIW – I think everyone not named George W Bush is going to have to shut up about Iraq. For the sake of the troops and the Iraqi people Bush is going to have to come up with his own plan that doesn’t appear to be “similar to”, “borrowed from”, “a lot like”, or “a mirror image of” any plan put forth by Dems or Friends of his Father. He’s getting boxed in on all sides by ideas that are frankly, more measured, sane, and realistic than anything the WH has come up with.

    Unless and until the Congress acts in the best interest of the country and either impeaches Bush and Cheney or figures out how to reign them in, the whole situation in the Middle East is dependent on W’s very ill-informed gut.

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