July Surprise

I know this has been a prominent story on just about every blog that exists, but I thought I’d add my two cents anyway.

Just three weeks ago, John Judis, Spencer Ackerman, and Massoud Ansari wrote a devastating piece for The New Republic. The article’s conclusion was almost too disgusting to believe: there are multiple sources here and in the Middle East that confirm that the White House has been working with officials in Pakistan to capture high-profile al Queda operatives specifically during the Democratic National Convention.

A third source, an official who works under ISI’s director, Lieutenant General Ehsan ul-Haq, informed TNR that the Pakistanis “have been told at every level that apprehension or killing of [high-value targets] before [the] election is [an] absolute must.” What’s more, this source claims that Bush administration officials have told their Pakistani counterparts they have a date in mind for announcing this achievement: “The last ten days of July deadline has been given repeatedly by visitors to Islamabad and during [ul-Haq’s] meetings in Washington.” Says McCormack: “I’m aware of no such comment.” But according to this ISI official, a White House aide told ul-Haq last spring that “it would be best if the arrest or killing of [any] HVT were announced on twenty-six, twenty-seven, or twenty-eight July” — the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Boston.

The story in The New Republic was thorough, well-sourced, and written by very credible journalists, but it sounded beyond the pale, even for Bush.

Yet here we are, three weeks later. And in an incredible coincidence, Pakistan announced yesterday that its forces have captured Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani, a Tanzanian al Qaeda operative wanted in connection with the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.

And if that weren’t enough, it turns out Ghailani was captured over the weekend, but the announcement was held until yesterday afternoon — about seven hours before Kerry took the stage in Boston.

OK, you tell me. What, exactly, are we to think?

Let’s be clear: Ghailani’s capture is great news. Anytime a high-ranking al Queda official is brought to justice, it is cause for celebration.

But the timing here, in light of the TNR article, makes questions about abuse and exploitation unavoidable. To paraphrase Woody Allen, there’s a word for people who believe the Bush White House is constantly manipulating world events for political gain — perceptive.

The only reason I’m not completely apoplectic about this is that the Bush administration is usually far more adroit at orchestrating these kinds of stunts. Kerry’s big day ultimately had to share the news cycle with the Ghailani story, but if this was a plot to minimize attention for the Dems, it was a spectacular failure — news of the arrest failed to even make the front page of most of the major U.S. papers today (WaPo A10, NYT A3, LAT A4).

I’m not inclined to cut the Bush gang any slack, but this may really be a stunning coincidence. If the Ghailani arrest was really going to be used for political purposes, it could have been done a lot better than this. Either the administration tried to undermine Kerry and failed miserably, or the timing was accidental. Take your pick.