Way back last September, Zogby released a poll that I found rather discouraging. Bush’s popularity was already slipping badly — this was post-Katrina, and Zogby pegged his national support at 41% — but the poll added a twist. Zogby asked respondents how they’d vote in hypothetical match-ups pitting Bush against the past presidents of the last generation.
Bush didn’t fare well. Given a choice, Americans preferred Clinton, Reagan, Carter, and Bush 41 to the current president. When Zogby asked about a 2004 rematch, however, Bush still beat John Kerry, 48% to 47%.
To me, it was a reflection of just how severely Bush and his allies had smeared Kerry during the campaign. Even in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, as the president was exposed as being helplessly inept, Bush nevertheless led in a hypothetical rematch, according to this poll.
That, of course, was six months ago. What if voters were given another shot at the ’04 race now? The latest Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, which includes a lot of fascinating data, asked this very question.
One final question offered perhaps the most dramatic expression of the nation’s discontent with Bush’s second term. Asked whom they would support today in a rerun of the 2004 presidential election, 39% of registered voters picked Bush, whereas 49% said they preferred the man the president defeated only 17 months ago, Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts.
In light of the Zogby poll from September, it’s encouraging to see Kerry with a 10-point lead. In light of reality, I’m not sure what the other 39% are thinking.