A month ago, a Zogby poll in New Hampshire was released, showing Howard Dean in the lead with a whopping 42%, Kerry a distant second at 12%, and Clark in single digits at 9%. At the time, I foolishly said, “The question isn’t whether Dean will win, it’s how much he’ll win by.” (Note to self: No more predicting more than a month in advance of the vote.)
What seemed obvious in December is gone; now a whole new set of questions are at hand with less than a week to go before the nation’s first primary. By all indications, at least as of today, Kerry’s post-Iowa bump has propelled him into first place, while Dean’s poor showing in Iowa is driving people away in droves. Here’s some data:
Boston Globe/WBZ-TV (MoE +/- 5%)
Kerry — 31 percent
Dean — 21 percent
Clark — 16 percent
Edwards — 11 percent
Suffolk University-WDHD (MoE +/- 5%)
Kerry — 27 percent
Dean — 19 percent
Clark — 15 percent
Edwards — 7 percent
Boston Herald-RKM (MoE +/- 4.5%)
Kerry — 31 percent
Dean — 21 percent
Clark — 16 percent
Edwards — 11 percent
Worth noting in the Boston Herald poll is Dean’s unfavorable rating climbing from 21% to 34% in less than a week.
But even more fun is the American Research Group’s daily tracking poll, which has quickly become the must-read data of the day — every day.
As of this morning, ARG sees New Hampshire this way (MoE +/- 4%):
Kerry — 27 percent
Dean — 22 percent
Clark — 19 percent
Edwards — 9 percent
As the primary gets closer, ARG is increasing its sample size to provide more reliable data. Keep in mind, ARG’s tracking poll combines three day totals — Jan. 17, 18, 19, then 18, 19, 20, then 19, 20, and 21, and so on.
For just yesterday, the 21st, the poll shows a significant swing away from Dean:
Kerry — 29 percent (no change from Jan. 20)
Clark — 21 percent (up from 18 percent on Jan. 20)
Dean — 17 percent (down from 24 percent on Jan. 20)
Edwards — 10 percent (no change from Jan. 20)
Looking at this data, Kerry has a solid lead on first place, but Dean is slipping from second to third, behind Clark.
I thought on Tuesday that Dean could still recover from his debacle in Iowa by winning New Hampshire and moving into the Feb. 3 primaries with some new-found momentum. If, however, Dean manages to blow a 30-point lead in one month in a state that borders his own by coming in third next Tuesday, one has to assume that Dean’s campaign has imploded and he won’t be able to recover.