I know many of you were looking for the nearest high window to jump out of when the CNN/USAT/Gallup poll showed Bush getting a small bump in the polls after the Dems’ convention, but there’s every reason to believe Kerry is still right where he needs to be with three months until Election Day.
As I noted yesterday, CBS shows Kerry up by six, while Newsweek has Kerry leading by seven (eight in a head-to-head without Nader). But if those results weren’t enough to set your mind at ease, the latest Washington Post/ABC News data should do the trick.
The Post/ABC results show Kerry leading Bush by six (50-44), his biggest lead ever in any Post/ABC poll. That’s an eight-point swing from mid-July, when the same poll showed Bush up by two (48-46). In a head-to-head match-up against Bush, Kerry’s lead is even bigger (52-45).
While these numbers are encouraging, the internals are even more important in showing how much progress Kerry has made. He now leads Bush in public support in nearly every area of public policy — handling the economy (52-41), Iraq (48-46), education (52-39), health care (55-36), taxes (49-43), relations with other countries (51-42), and improving U.S. intelligence agencies (48-43). The only area in which Bush still leads in the “war on terror,” but even here, Bush’s once-insurmountable lead has evaporated to near parity (48-45).
But wait, it gets better.
Efforts by Democrats to counter GOP claims that Kerry would be a weak and indecisive leader also showed at least temporary and partial success. Bush still is viewed as the stronger leader, but Kerry has managed to cut the president’s advantage by more than half. Currently 50 percent of all voters see Bush as the stronger leader while 44 percent say Kerry is.
The Democrat is now viewed, by 47 percent to 41 percent, as more honest and trustworthy than Bush. Immediately before the convention, those numbers were essentially reversed. Kerry also has widened his advantage as the candidate who best understands the problems of average Americans. And Bush was seen on the eve of the convention as the candidate who most closely shared their values. Now, Kerry has an advantage over Bush, 50 percent to 44 percent.
The survey also suggests that perceptions of Kerry as a pessimist may have eased somewhat. He is now viewed more favorably than Bush by the public. And the proportion who say he is an optimist rose from 55 percent on the eve of the convention to 65 percent immediately after. Overall, 56 percent of Kerry’s supporters say they were “very enthusiastic” about him, compared with 41 percent barely a week earlier.
Voters trust Kerry, agree with him on the issues, and even share his values. He has rallied his base and is viewed as the optimistic candidate. For all the talk about the non-existent “bounce,” this is a candidate poised for victory.
And here’s the gem that’ll have them dancing at Kerry-Edwards HQ:
And after a convention that focused heavily on his military experience in Vietnam, Kerry leads Bush as “better qualified to be commander-in-chief,” by 52 percent to 44 percent.
Bush campaign aides, bless their hearts, are desperately spinning away.
“It’s the first time since McGovern that a challenger hasn’t received a boost — a clear indication that John Kerry failed to connect,” says BC’04 spokesman Terry Holt.
That’s a nice line, Terry, and the NYT even picked up your talking point for its lede this morning. But consider this: no incumbent president in the modern era has won a second term trailing by this much, and with such low approval ratings, with just 13 weeks to go.