Republicans have developed a clever plan to boost GOP turnout in several key states — put gay marriage proposals on the ballot.
For the right, it’s a two-fer. Anti-gay conservatives will be motivated to turn out in greater numbers to vote on a culture war issue, and while they’re in the voting booth, they’ll probably be inclined to pull the lever for Bush. Already, eight states will consider constitutional amendments to ban same-sex marriages this year (Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Utah) and five more are still collecting signatures or are having them reviewed (Arkansas, Michigan, North Dakota, Ohio, and Oregon).
On the other hand, two key swing states — Florida and Nevada — will be voting on a far different proposal, which may boost turnout from a far different set of voters.
Proponents of a higher minimum wage, frustrated by federal inaction, are turning their attention to the state level, and their efforts to tap voters’ angst over the quality of new jobs could affect the presidential race.
In November, voters in two key battlegrounds, Nevada and Florida, will be asked to raise the minimum wage in their states. Those on both sides of the initiatives believe the measures could increase voter turnout among Democratic-leaning African-Americans, Hispanics and low-income workers — and possibly boost Democratic nominee Sen. John Kerry’s showing against President Bush.
As a matter of public policy, John Kerry is right, a serious increase in the minimum wage is way overdue. And as a matter of politics, this is a popular issue that strongly cuts the Dems’ way.
A poll done on behalf of the Florida campaign by Washington, D.C., polling firm Lake Snell Perry & Associates found 81% of respondents in favor, and a higher likelihood of voting as a result of the question, especially among African-Americans. Pollster Celinda Lake said the poll found a theoretical increase of six percentage points in turnout among groups with a low propensity to vote, who constitute 48% of the eligible population and tend to vote Democratic. A more realistic hope, she said, is a one to two point increase. “The notion of being able to vote yourself a raise is quite powerful for people,” Ms. Lake says.
In Florida, a point or two is huge.
Fortunately, most (but not all) of the states with anti-gay ballot initiatives are states Bush is likely to win anyway. It’ll likely boost turnout among conservatives, but whether Bush wins Montana by 30 points or 35 points is largely inconsequential.
Florida and Nevada on the other hand, with a combined 32 electoral votes that Bush won four years ago, are very much in play. Keep an eye on this.