Lamont surges ahead, but Lieberman’s independent bid still on track

July 20, 2006

With two-and-a-half weeks to go in the closely-watched Dem Senate primary in Connecticut, Sen. Joe Lieberman isn’t consolidating party support; he’s losing it.

A [tag]Quinnipiac[/tag] University [tag]poll[/tag] released Thursday has Democratic challenger Ned [tag]Lamont[/tag] leading the U.S. Senate race over incumbent Joe [tag]Lieberman[/tag].

The poll shows Lamont ahead 51-47 percent among likely voters in the Aug. 8 [tag]Democratic[/tag] [tag]primary[/tag]. That compares to a 55-40 percent lead for Lieberman in a similar poll in June.

This is, of course, the first statewide poll to date that shows Lamont in the lead for the race for the nomination. Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz said Lamont’s surge can be attributed to increased familiarity with his campaign and the growing sense among Connecticut Dems that he’s “an acceptable alternative to Lieberman.”

But — in this is a key caveat — if Lieberman loses the primary, his [tag]independent[/tag] campaign still appears to be well-positioned for November.

Lieberman has said he will run as a third-party candidate in November should he lose the Democratic primary.

The poll shows him leading a three way race with the support of 51 percent of likely voters, compared to 27 percent for Lamont and 9 percent for Republican Alan [tag]Schlesinger[/tag].

Lamont’s lead over Lieberman among Dems is impressive, and in head-to-head match-ups, both Dems have little trouble against the GOP candidate.

But that’s what makes the three-way poll the number to watch. Lieberman may be losing Dems, but as a third-party candidate (Connecticut for Lieberman), he appears to be pulling enough independent and Republican votes that he’s still in a solid position for November.

That said, the entire race is very fluid, as the shifting polls suggest. The more people see of Lamont, the more they like him. If Lieberman loses the primary, and the race turns uglier, his non-Dem support may falter. Lieberman may lead the three-way race now, but he certainly can’t count on holding onto that lead indefinitely.

A month ago, in my heart of hearts, I thought Lieberman would probably eke out a primary win. Now, I’m starting to suspect the opposite.

Post Script: By the way, just to wrap up a loose end I mentioned yesterday, Lieberman has sworn off the possibility of running as a Republican. “Joe Lieberman will never run as a Republican,” campaign spokesperson Marion Steinfels said. “Never.”

***”Joe Lieberman will never run as a Republican,” campaign spokesperson Marion Steinfels said. “Never.”***

Yep—just like he promised the voters of Connecticut that he was running as a Democrat—and concentrating “only” on running as a Democrat. I’m guessing that, 111 days from now, Connecticut is going to wake up and hear Joe Lie saying “you won’t have me to kick around any more—*sob*….”

  • “Lieberman may be losing Dems, but as a third-party candidate (Connecticut for Lieberman), he appears to be pulling enough independent and Republican votes that he’s still in a solid position for November.” – CB

    Two thoughts,

    Republicans may not come out to the polls to support Lieberman.

    Two, Independents may start looking hard at Lamont and decide they like him in the General Election.

    After all, look how far Joe “My Earmarks are GOOD Earmarks” Lieberman has slipped in the polls since the debate gave primary voters a good look at Lamont.

    Speaking of Debates, wouldn’t it be great if Lamont and Schlesinger scheduled a bunch of them and somehow forgot to invite Joe, who seems only to want to debate once. That would be the way to marginalize him, I’d say.

  • I heard on Air America this morning that Roll Call (I think) is reporting Bill Clinton will be endorsing Joementum on Monday. Of course the source for that report was the Connecticut for Lieberman campaign. Hillary is still saying she will support the winner of the primary. Can anyone confirm this info? Why would Clinton interject himself in a primary and why would he support Lieberman?

    I certainly hope this is not true…

  • This is the guy the Democratic Party picked in 2000 to restore *values* in the Democratic Party? A lying weasel? He’s a political hack of the worst kind (he’s willing to screw the Party and it’s effort to get a Democratic majority). He should be turned out without a second thought. What we need we can pick up elsewhere.

  • CB, I missed something. Doesn’t Joe have to have a certain amount of signatures to qualify for the ballot as an independent? If so, how many signatures? Apparently he would have to have those ready for the next day following the Democratic primary. Is he near the required amount? Anybody know the answers to those questions?

  • Good one NAR! Don’t like the results? Assume you know better what the ‘real’ people think, without presenting the faintest shred of evidence. Facts are for the weak!

    Prediction: Holy Joe will pull a(nother) page from the Republicant handbook and claim that he pays no attention to polls.

    I am surprised, however, that he has so definitively ruled out running as an R

  • Marve, my understanding is that Lieberman has been quietly gathering signatures since he made the announcement about his backup plan of running as an independent. The number needed is 7,500.

    I’m not entirely convinced by the Steinfels statement. The exact wording is very important. After all, Lieberman claims that even if he loses the primary he’ll be “running as a Democrat”, whatever that pesky ballot say. Seems to me he could just as easily be running as a Democrat in his mind while the ballot says Republican. The ambiguity is whether he’s talking about party identification on the ballot or his own personal voter registration.

  • Did you see the NY Times story today showing how many of Censorin’ Joe’s contributors give most of their political money almost exclusively to GOP candidates?

  • I am a conservative Republican from Los Angeles. I appreciate Senator Lieberman’s statesmanship and moderation. I normally do not contribute to political campaigns of either party, but have made a five month committment to his re-election. I believe it is in the best interest of the Nation.

  • To Dick – I assume you’re referring to Lieberman’s position on Iraq. Because there are no other positions of any significance that you could agree with him on if you are a conservative R.

    Democrats’ opposition to him has more to do with partisanship, loyalty, and style than Iraq, though Iraq is by all objective measures a catastrophic policy and military failure.

    Lieberman is not nearly partisan enough to be successful as a Republican or a Democrat.

  • #10
    Did you see the NY Times story today showing how many of Censorin’ Joe’s contributors give most of their political money almost exclusively to GOP candidates?
    Comment by Edward Copeland — 7/20/2006 @ 1:05 pm

    The article is interesting in another way as well. Until recently, NYT barely mentioned Lamont at all and, when it did, it was always from LIE-berman’s perspective. But NYT must have got an early peek at the Quinnipac, because it now seems to be altering its course slightly. Yesterday, there was the article on Lamont which included his photo and presented his “more than Iraq” agenda (high time, if you ask me; LIE-berman had had his fun long enough). Today, there’s the article quoted above, which isn’t entirely complimentary to the incumbent.

    I must say though, that I think yesterday’s article was “worth” more — it was in the A section, not in the NYregion one.

  • I never get involved in party politics, but I have to side with those who are turning against Lieberman.

    It’s a big change for me. I can remember being emotionally affected by his VP nomination. I was impressed with his presence as a candidate for national office.

    But now he has squandered all of that emotion. His campaign is tired and uninspired. His decision to stand for “me” above all was ill timed and too revealing, which fed into his slide. That decision–to be for himself rather than for some kind of Democratic platforn–made him a poster child for political hacks. His main claim to office is knowledge of the system, seniority, insider influence. It’s just not enough.

  • That 3-way race poll smells suspicious to me. For Holy Joe to be doubling up Lamont doesn’t smell right, when the Rethug only gets 9%. I saw something earlier today that probably explains it: the poll included over 2,500 respondents, but less than 650 were self-identified as Dems — only about 25% Dems were included in the poll. Duh, no wonder only 27% say they are likely to vote for the Dem in the race!!

  • Mark F (#15): His decision to stand for “me” […]
    He never did; the shoe’s on the other foot and he wants you to stand for him. It’s not “Lieberman for Connecticut” party, you know; it’s “Connecticut for LIEberman”

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