Latest poll results on Bush and the Democratic presidential field

I guess today is poll day at The Carpetbagger Report (see below). A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll was released today with some fresh data about Bush and the Democratic presidential candidates.

First, Bush continues to be popular, but his approval ratings are falling. According to the survey, 62 percent of respondents approved of the way Bush was doing his job while 31 percent disapproved. That may sound pretty high, but in mid-April — the last time an NBC/WSJ poll came out — it was 71 percent approving and 23 percent disapproving.

Not only is that a pretty significant drop in one month, but it’s also the lowest Bush has polled from NBC/WSJ since early February.

The higher ratings were clearly artificially inflated to reflect Americans rallying around the president during a time of war. The war is clearly over, the post-war efforts are not going as well, and Bush’s approval ratings are falling to more reasonable levels. Bush’s support won’t even be this strong by the time the election rolls around next year unless the economy improves dramatically.

And speaking of 2004, poll respondents were asked, “If President Bush runs for re-election in 2004, do you think you will probably vote for President Bush or probably vote for the Democratic candidate?” Bush garnered 47 percent while a generic Democratic challenger got 32 percent. Again, that may sound fairly bleak to those of us hoping for a change in leadership next year, but the fact that Bush is under 50 percent despite a high approval rating is a pretty good sign.

As for how voters like the Democrats seeking to replace Bush, there hasn’t been much change in the standings.

Lieberman — 21 percent
Kerry — 17 percent
Gephardt — 16 percent
Edwards — 5 percent
Graham — 4 percent
Braun — 4 percent
Dean — 3 percent
Sharpton — 2 percent
Kucinich — 1 percent
None of the above — 6 percent
Not Sure — 21 percent

As I’ve said before, it’s still too early for a poll like this to have much meaning. Lieberman is ahead because 50 million people voted to make him Vice President less than three years ago. His support will fade…I hope.