I mentioned this morning that Bush’s poll numbers have reached dramatic lows, but how are the polls on those seeking to replace him?
A national Zogby poll demonstrated that only four of the nine candidates have any meaningful base of support at this point in the campaign. Zogby’s results were as follows:
Howard Dean — 16% (up from 12% in July)
John Kerry — 13% (up from 9% in July)
Joe Lieberman — 12% (no change from July)
Dick Gephardt — 8% (down from 12% in July)
Beyond these four, no other Dem polled at more than 3%. (Oddly enough, Gen. Wesley Clark was tied for fifth in the Zogby poll, with 3% support despite not actually being an announced candidate.)
A Time/CNN poll produced significantly different results. This poll showed:
John Kerry — 16% (up from 14% in July)
Joe Lieberman — 13% (down from 16% in July)
Howard Dean — 11% (up from 10% in July)
Dick Gephardt — 7% (down from 12% in July)
John Edwards — 7% (up from 6% in July)
All other candidates polled at 5% or lower. (Gen. Clark was not part of this survey.)
If you look at these polls together, you see…not a whole lot.
Kerry seems to be enjoying a bit of a post-announcement bounce with gains in both polls. Gephardt seems to be falling fairly quickly, with sizable drops in both. Dean did well in the Zogby poll, but less well in the Time/CNN poll. This doesn’t really affect his status as the frontrunner, since these national polls aren’t as significant at this point as polling in Iowa and New Hampshire, as well as fundraising totals.
In fact, as a USA Today poll released early last week demonstrated, most Americans still have little interest in the presidential campaign. Only 8% of all Americans and 10% of self-identified Democrats say that are following the race “very closely.”
There is, in other words, plenty of time for things to change. The really interesting polling data will be after Clark announces (if Clark announces) to see how his campaign alters the dynamic. I think the conventional wisdom is that Clark will be a top-tier candidate almost instantly, which I think is true, but it will be interesting to see how his lack of name recognition, at least early on, affects the polls.