Leading indicators in Iraq

War supporters frequently try to focus in on “indicators” to suggest progress in Iraq is much further along than most Americans believe. When congressional Republicans fly over Baghdad and see some lights on, they say, “See? There’s progress.” When a delegation can travel from the airport to downtown in a heavily-armed caravan, they say, “See? We couldn’t do this last year.” When John McCain visits a marketplace under the protection of 100 U.S. troops and air support, he says, “See? Iraq is getting better.”

On the flip side, let’s consider a few “indicators” war supporters would probably prefer to overlook. For example, U.S. Embassy employees in the Green Zone are now expected to wear protective gear inside secure buildings.

A sharp increase in mortar attacks on the Green Zone — the one-time oasis of security in Iraq’s turbulent capital — has prompted the U.S. Embassy to issue a strict new order telling all employees to wear flak vests and helmets while in unprotected buildings or whenever they are outside.

The order, obtained by The Associated Press, has created a siege mentality among U.S. staff inside the Green Zone following a recent suicide attack on parliament. It has also led to new fears about long-term safety in the place where the U.S. government is building a massive and expensive new embassy.

The situation marks a sharp turnaround for the heavily guarded Green Zone — long viewed as the safest corner of Baghdad with its shops, restaurants, American fast-food outlets and key Iraqi and American government offices.

Indicator #2, regarding the Iraqi parliament’s possible two-month vacation:

The Iraqi parliament normally meets three times a week, on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, but its sessions involve numerous problems that Congress does not face.

This week, Tuesday’s session was canceled because the parliament building’s electricity was out, a result of Baghdad’s chronic power shortages. That meant microphones did not work, the windowless room in which legislators meet was dark, and there was no air-conditioning at a time the outside temperature was rising into the 90s.

Of the 275 lawmakers, 170 were present for the session that never happened. Attendance has been a persistent problem — reasons for absences range from boycotts to traffic jams caused by suicide bombings and checkpoints.


Indicator #3:

On April 11, Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced that tours of duty for the Army would be extended from 12 months to 15 months, effective immediately. In exchange for the extensions, soldiers would receive at least a year home between deployments. This rest time was intended to “provide some long-term predictability for the soldiers and their families…particularly guaranteeing that they will be at home for a full 12 months,” Gates added.

But Gates has not kept his promise. Stars and Stripes reports: “The Army is sending a company of Europe-based soldiers back to Iraq before the unit has had a full 12 months of ‘dwell time,’ or at-home rest. Members of the 1st Armored Division’s 1st Battalion, 6th Infantry, Company A, learned Tuesday that they are scheduled to head back to Iraq in November, just nine months after the 150-soldier company left the combat zone in February after a 13-month deployment.” […]

According to [Pentagon spokesman Bryan] Whitman, the 12-month rest period between deployments “is a goal,” not a guarantee.

These “indicators” paint quite a picture, don’t they? The word “progress” doesn’t come to mind.

When it comes to anything said by any official spokesman wearing an American military uniform, one must apply the standards first enunciated to me by an old Navy Chief lo these many decades ago:

“Believe nothing that you hear and only half of what you see.”

That’s how you deal with “scuttlebutt,” and any official military promise now is no better than scuttlebutt.

  • So Americans are dying for a government the Iraqis don’t even care about. When will they ever learn?

  • CB – You forgot another indicator that Shrubya and his lackeys don’t want to discuss. The Iraqi parliament is gearing up to vote us off the island.

    I call it progress when a country decides it is time for the occupiers to GtFo. BushBaby will no doubt spin this into a radical action spurred by agents of Al-Quaida.

    From Tom Cleaver’s post I have “Heard it through the grapevine” stuck in my head, but given the circumstances, it makes sense. Can’t you just see Dick sobbing “Not much longer will you be mine,” to the oil beneath Iraq?

  • Yet another promise broken; yet another reason to keep telling these kids not to enlist—and FUBAR-shilling lemmings like Whitman are making that a whole lot easier

  • “The situation marks a sharp turnaround for the heavily guarded Green Zone — long viewed as the safest corner of Baghdad with its shops, restaurants, American fast-food outlets and key Iraqi and American government offices.”

    The siege is tightening. Better keep the choppers warmed up. And it’s going to start taking longer to get that burger at the Baghdad Mickey-D’s, what with customers and staff having to deal with all the incoming mortar rounds and all.

  • In addition to your three and TAIO’s (@3) fourth, here’s another indicator of how things are going in Iraq:

    “The chance that an Iraqi child will live beyond age 5 has plummeted faster than anywhere else in the world since 1990,” according to the group Save the Children, which “placed the country last in its child survival rankings. One in eight Iraqi children died of disease or violence before reaching their fifth birthday in 2005.”

    We sure have done good in liberating them ragheads, haven’t we?

  • Since a lot of the incompetent Young Republican types are the ones staffing US positions in the Green Zone, their “hey, isn’t George W. Bush great?” enthusiasm must really be dampened by the fact that life in Bagdad isn’t just chillin’ by one of Saddam’s pools anymore and watching distant smoke rise and hearing the far-off booms with a cocktail in their hands. I’m waiting for those now flak jacket wearing simpletons to quit talking about “we’re winning” and start saying “get me the f*%k out of here.”

    And by failing to really secure Baghdad during the “stay the course” years, Bush’s vaunted Iraqi democracy is falling apart. With an endangered parliament that can’t even hold meetings because of the lack of basic services, the real power in Iraq has shifted outside of the Green Zone … to like Moqtada al Sadr’s house.

  • “According to [Pentagon spokesman Bryan] Whitman, the 12-month rest period between deployments ‘is a goal,’ not a guarantee.”

    Because we’re at war, you see?

    Well, those in the military and their families are at war.

    But the rest of us can do our patriotic duty by buying marked down “Support The Troops” magnets (made in China) at Walmart.

    Seriously, everytime I read a story like this about the Bush administration shafting the troops, I keep thinking of the French Army mutiny of 1917.

    How will the poilus react this time?

  • Since a lot of the incompetent Young Republican types are the ones staffing US positions in the Green Zone, their “hey, isn’t George W. Bush great?” enthusiasm must really be dampened […] petorado, @7

    I dare say the flak jackets are gonna chafe a tad in that heat…

    What’s even funnier is there was a mention (last night, I think; can’t track it right this mo) on TP that Commerce had sent 39K e-mail messages, to all its empolyees, urging them to volunteer for Iraq’s rebuilding. Got 40 replies. *And*, the best part is, they won’t say what was in those replies… Which leads me to believe that majority must have been along the lines of “go Cheney yourself”.

  • “long viewed as the safest corner of Baghdad with its shops, restaurants, American fast-food outlets and key Iraqi and American government offices”

    I mean, seriously? KFC, McDo and BK in the Green Zone? Haven’t they got anything better and more urgent to do, befóre making sure that GI Joe can order a Big Mac for three bucks?

  • Comments are closed.