During the Republicans presidential primaries, exit polls showed John McCain struggling to win over the most conservative Republican voters, but since this contingent was divided between Huckabee, Romney, and Thompson, McCain was able to excel anyway.
After effectively having wrapped up the nomination in February, McCain began the task of bringing the various GOP factions together, and as far he’s concerned, it’s going pretty well. At least three times on the campaign trail last week, the senator boasted that the Republican Party is “united.”
The Wall Street Journal took a closer look at this claim today, and finds some of the conservatives who hated McCain earlier this year are still not quite ready to close ranks.
Some prominent conservatives say they remain disenchanted with the party’s likely nominee. Sen. McCain isn’t doing enough to persuade them of his conservative credentials, they say, or win them over to his side…. James Dobson, founder of Focus on the Family, once said he would stay home rather than vote for Sen. McCain. He has softened his tone, but he has yet to warm to the Arizona senator.
“I have seen no evidence that Sen. McCain is successfully unifying the Republican Party or drawing conservatives into his fold,” he said in a written statement, reflecting his personal views. “To the contrary, he seems intent on driving them away.”
Mr. Dobson took issue with a litany of Sen. McCain’s positions, including support for embryonic-stem-cell research and opposition to a Constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage. Those stances, plus Sen. McCain’s discussion of global warming and his push to outlaw torture and shut down the U.S. prison in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, have “frustrated” conservatives “whom McCain seems to have written off,” Mr. Dobson said.
I suspect most of this is sincere — Dobson really won’t tolerate anyone who neglects to agree with him on every issue, in every instance — but to reiterate a point from a couple of months ago, I don’t think Dobson has a lot of choice here. He has to keep opposing McCain’s candidacy.
Folks like Limbaugh, Coulter, and other far-right voices who railed against McCain early on will be fine whether he wins the presidency or not. Their “stature” (I use the word loosely) in Republican circles will remain unaffected no matter what happens on Election Day.
Dobson is facing a different future, and doesn’t have the luxury of being deemed irrelevant. He collects checks from donors who expect him to help drive the Republican agenda and shape the conservative movement. If he can’t even stop McCain, whom the religious right hates, why should his followers bother to send him more money?
The same is true on Capitol Hill. Dobson maintains clout based on fear — it’s his supporters who provide the party with foot-soldiers. If McCain can persevere despite the bitter opposition of Dobson and other religious right leaders, the fear factor is gone, and GOP leaders will begin to perceive the movement as a paper tiger. Why jump when Dobson demands it if he has no real electoral influence?
Indeed, it’s already quite apparent that far-right concerns about McCain don’t amount to much — despite not getting much in the way of attention, a lack of funds, and the religious right’s ire, McCain is still doing quite well in national polls.
With this in mind, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Dobson (and guys like Pat Robertson) work to undermine McCain at every turn. If he’s successful, and McCain loses, Dobson will say, “See? We still have power, and you still need to take the religious right seriously.”
And if McCain wins in spite of Dobson’s enmity, his power and influence may never be the same.