Look out for party switchers?

October 17, 2006

Del Ali, the president of the polling firm Research 2000, brings up one of my favorite subjects today, arguing that we should look out for a few Senate Republicans who may cross the aisle if Dems have a good night on Nov. 7.

There is a realistic possibility that if the Democrats pick up at least five Senate seats on Election Night, several current Republican Senators could switch to the Democratic side of the aisle. Remember, Shelby [tag]switch[/tag]ed because he felt Democrats were incapable of moving away from liberalism and Campbell switched because he felt Democrats were beholden to cronyism and did not respect other views among colleagues on issues important to Campbell. In 2006, cronyism is alive and well in the GOP ranks: Arlen Specter is shunned by the GOP leadership and White House for his views on domestic surveillance while Olympia Snowe, John Warner and Chuck Hagel are shunned for their views on Iraq.

Kevin Drum says this “seems like a pipe dream.” I couldn’t agree more. [tag]John Warner[/tag] (R-Va.) and [tag]Chuck Hagel[/tag] (R-Neb.) may be willing to occasionally say a mildly discouraging word about the president and/or the war in Iraq, but both of them are conservative Republicans who don’t agree with Dems on much of anything. Indeed, Hagel is planning to run for president in 2008 as an anti-Bush conservative. There’s no way on earth he’d jump ship now, even if Dems gained 10 seats in November.

[tag]Arlen Specter[/tag] (R-Pa.) is what passes for a Republican moderate these days, but he’s been a Republican senator now for 26 years and has never expressed so much as a hint of interest in switching sides. If anything, over the last two years, he’s clashed more with Senate Dems (particularly Sen. Russ Feingold) than ever before, on route to caving on every demand Bush has made on everything.

Olympia Snowe is perhaps the only one I’d consider even a remote possibility, but a) she’s running for re-election right now as a Republican; and b) no matter how much the right hates her (and they hate her quite a bit), she’s never shown any desire to jump ship. And they’re have been plenty of opportunities for her, all of which she’s declined. (I would add, however, that Snowe was a Democrat when she was younger, but switched [tag]parties[/tag] when she married a prominent Republican politician in Maine.)

Frankly, the trend that’s worth watching isn’t Republicans in the Senate who might bail, but rather, the House.

Indeed, as The Hill reported a month ago, depending on how the elections shake out, there could be some horse-trading going on.

With House Democrats expecting to narrow their 15-seat gap with Republicans in November, members of both parties are considering the uncomfortable but all-too-plausible reality that control of the House could hinge on the party affiliation of just a few members — or perhaps only one.

Such a scenario puts additional pressure on the moderates on each side of the aisle — many of whom could face pressure to jump across and join the other team.

The Hill didn’t point to any specific members who are rumored to be on the move to the other side of the aisle, but just raised the prospect and said “pressure could mount after the election. In a House divided 218 to 217, just a single disgruntled member of the majority could deal the ultimate blow to his or her colleagues.”

In the Senate, it seems far-fetched. In the House, it’s a scary thought.

“In the Senate, it seems far-fetched. In the House, it’s a scary thought.”

I’m really rather of the opinion that a majority of five or so would be bolstered by some defections if the committee assignments were right. If the margin is tight, you get two years in the majority and then, boom, you are out again.

  • Sorry I don’t think any Senators will switch parties – doesn’t make sense – yet. I do think House members are more likely, but even then I doubt it. It took southern white men like Shelby a long, long time to switch and he wasn’t even a consistent Democrat and most of those named in the post are very consistent Republicans. Heck by the time Shelby switch people like Newtie, and Bob Barr, etc had make it OK to be a Republican from the south and Reagan had made it OK for those white Republicans (Dixicrat-types) to be Republican after Lincoln went and messed things up.

  • Maybe the rain is making me grumpy, but this kind of speculation feels kind of like…
    If an anvil falls on the weatherman’s head during the night, he’ll never know whether his forecast for rain tomorrow was correct.
    All sorts of things are theoretically possible but when probabilities are low or information lacking, speculation seems pointless. Yeah, must be the rain.

  • The only senator who might switch parties after the election ain’t a Republican but a sanctimonious little putz of an independent from Connecticut.

  • I still advise caution for the “fence-jumpers.” One Republican, crossing the aisle and being given a position on a critial committee that’s aligned with a one-seat majority for Dems, could effectively place that committee under a covert control by the GOP minority.

    Consider the possibilities. Take a hypothetical, 9-seat committee that bears responsibility for investigating the administration. It’s divided with 5 seats to Dems and 4 seats to the PPP (Pod People Party). One “allegedly disgruntled” Pod Person crosses the aisle, gets a seat on that committee, and converts what appears to be a Dem majority to a Pod People majority.

    How many committees could the GOP gain control of, even though they’re a minority, by simply having a handful of “disgruntled Pod People” pretend to be Democrats?

    Should Dems retake the House, they need to create a new committee, for all the Pod People to join. Maybe they could investigate such things as the seaworthiness of rusted out pickup trucks, or do a longitudinal study on the ability of genetically-engineered soybeans to survive an F-5 tornado. Maybe, they could look into why Pod People (who we all know by now are covert Republicans) are just as susceptible to “death-by-impact-with-diesel-locomotive” as overt Republicans….

  • OK, come on. You don’t think any senators will switch parties? Not even one?

    I’ll give you a hint: His first name is Holy.

    (Which is why I think the Dems need seven pickups to regain the Senate.)

  • The only senator who might switch parties after the election ain’t a Republican but a sanctimonious little putz of an independent from Connecticut. — Marlowe

    I think he’s already switched… He just hasn’t put the (R) by his name yet.

  • Certainly, Warner isn’t going to switch; just today he was campaigning for that prick, Allen.

  • Actually the only one I could see switching other than LIEberman is Chafee, but he’s not gonna win anyway.

  • I think I could see Snowe switching, but going the Jeffords route, calling herself an Independent but caucusing with the Democrats. The question in the House is almost certainly moot, because it ain’t gonna be 218-217, but more like 235+ to 200- . The number of races that are moving Democratic is getting larger every time. I still will predict Hastert losing (and I wouldn’t be surprised if Kyl loses in the Senate as well).

    Of course, this is assuming that the votes are counted honestly and they haven’t been Diebolded.

  • I don’t think we’ll see any Senators switch parties following the election, regardless of the outcome. The moderates in the majority party will wield more power if it is a closely divided Seante, as they will hold the critical swing votes.

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