Yesterday’s mini-Super Tuesday is over, but the next two weeks will have plenty of excitement. The Final Four may be down to three by the time these contests are over.
Saturday, February 7
Michigan (128 delegates) will host its primary. Dean effectively ignored the seven Feb. 3 states so he could concentrate, in part, on this contest. It was a risky strategy, and so far, it isn’t working. Not only has the state’s most popular Dem — Gov. Granholm — endorsed Kerry, but the polls are looking strong for the Massachusetts senator as well. A Detroit News poll shows Kerry with a ridiculous lead over Dean, 56% to 13%.The Detroit Free Press has things a little closer, with Kerry leading at 37%, with Dean and Edwards tied for second at 14%.
Washington (76) has its caucuses the same day. No one’s really sure who’s leading there at this point, because there haven’t been any recent polls published, but watch for Dean to really pull out all the stops for this one. He built a significant base of support in Washington throughout 2003, and if Michigan starts to look like a lost cause, Dean will focus every ounce of his energy on a win here. If Dean loses Washington, his already-slim chances will get even worse.
Sunday, February 8
Maine (24 delegates) will have its caucuses. Edwards and Clark appear prepared to blow it off entirely, leaving the New Englanders — Kerry and Dean — to fight it out. I haven’t seen any recent polls out of Maine.
Tuesday, February 10
Tennessee (69 delegates) and Virginia (82 delegates) will host primaries. Like Dean in Washington, Clark and Edwards will be desperate for wins here. Both believe this will be their chance to get rid of the other and make themselves the other candidate in the “two-man race” with Kerry, especially since Clark and Edwards will be largely blowing off MI, WA, and ME. Clark seems to have an edge in Tennessee, where he’s spent significant resources and picked up some key endorsements. Already, the campaign is calling Tennessee Clark’s “must-win” state. Virginia will also be competitive. Look to see what role Gov. Mark Warner (D) plays in the race; I’ve heard he’s interested in the VP slot no matter who gets the nomination.
Saturday, February 14
DC (16 delegates) holds caucuses. Considering the pre-Iowa fiasco, candidates will probably keep their distance. Nevada (24 delegates) also will hold caucuses. If Dean’s still in the race, look for his flip-flop on Yucca Mountain to come back in a big way (he used to support dumping nuclear waste there, once his campaign picked up steam, he changed his mind).
Tuesday, February 17
Wisconsin (72 delegates) will have its primary, which has a history of backing good ol’ fashioned liberals. Jesse Jackson won the state’s 1988 primary, for example. Dean appears to be counting on Wisconsin as his fail-safe state — the one state he’ll count on if everything else fails. Dean looked strong in the polls here in mid-December, but as everyone now knows, a lot has changed since then. There’ll be a big debate in Milwaukee on the 15th, which I expect to be a pretty raucous affair.