The South Carolina Democratic primary is, of course, underway, and from what I hear, turnout is strong. (The record for participation is 290,000 Dems, which most expect to be topped today.) The polls vary widely — while most point to a likely Barack Obama victory, I’ve seen margins ranging from eight to 20 points. The race for second may prove interesting, with some recent data pointing to John Edwards closing in on Hillary Clinton.
Voting won’t end until 7 pm (eastern), and in the meantime, the goal of many campaign spin doctors is to manage expectations. The Clinton campaign, for example, seems to be emphasizing the post-South Carolina contests. Here’s excerpts from a memo distributed by Clinton campaign communications director Howard Wolfson:
Regardless of today’s outcome, the race quickly shifts to Florida, where hundreds of thousands of Democrats will turn out to vote on Tuesday.
Despite efforts by the Obama campaign to ignore Floridians, their voices will be heard loud and clear across the country, as the last state to vote before Super Tuesday on February 5th. […]
Coming off of victories in Nevada, Michigan and New Hampshire, Senator Clinton has demonstrated the importance of focusing on achieving real solutions on the economy, health care and Iraq .
The Obama campaign wants to “ignore Floridians”? I just don’t understand what possesses Wolfson to make comments like these — all of the candidates pledged not to campaign in Florida. Last week, Wolfson accused Obama of secretly trying to reach out to Floridians; now he’s accusing Obama of ignoring the same state Clinton agreed to sidestep? Odd.
Speaking of inconsistencies, the Obama campaign also tripped on its own talking points lately. Earlier in the week, the campaign blasted Clinton for blowing off South Carolinians. Later in the week, the campaign highlighted all of the efforts Clinton was making to win South Carolina. Obviously, it can’t be both.
So, what’s the reality here? By all indications, the Clinton campaign really has made a considerable effort to win the state. Indeed, just last week, the Clinton campaign’s Don Fowler said of South Carolina: “I’m confident with the kind of campaign we’re running next week we’re going to win.”
Indeed, over the last few days, the Clinton team has acted like a campaign hoping to win the state.
The dean who introduced Hillary Clinton in the chapel of a historically black college yesterday made an impassioned plea for South Carolina’s African-Americans to vote for Clinton in today’s primary, and “focus on our community’s future rather than acting on pure emotion.”
Flanking Clinton on the chapel stage were two of the nation’s well known black politicians, Congressman Charles Rangel and David Dinkins, former mayor of New York. One hundred miles to the north, Bill Clinton was preparing to greet another audience.
It did not seem like a campaign that had given up on South Carolina.
The Clinton campaign has worked for weeks to lower expectations in a state where Senator Barack Obama of Illinois has been polling significantly ahead of the New York senator. And yet in the last few days, the Clinton camp has been trying hard to woo voters, especially African-Americans who have been favoring Obama, the first black candidate to make a serious bid for the party’s presidential nomination.
The good news for Clinton is, it makes the Obama campaign’s accusations that Clinton was ignoring the state look pretty silly. The bad news for Clinton is, if she loses, she won’t be able to say, “I wasn’t seriously trying to compete there anyway.”
Stay tuned.