Mark Warner steps aside

October 12, 2006

A few months ago, the New York Times Sunday Magazine ran an interesting cover story on former Virginia Gov. [tag]Mark Warner[/tag] (D), and his burgeoning presidential campaign. The article demonstrated how very serious Warner was about 2008, including extensive travel, a top-notch staff, an aggressive political action committee, and forceful outreach effort to many of the party’s top donors.

Warner wasn’t taking this lightly. YearlyKos attendees recognized quite well that Warner wasn’t just exploring a White House bid; he was running hard.

Which is why today’s announcement came as such a surprise.

Former Virginia Gov. Mark R. Warner (D) announced this morning that he will not seek the presidency in 2008, saying he wants to spend more time with his family.

In a statement released shortly before his 11 a.m. press conference here, Warner said, “This has been a difficult decision, but for me, it’s the right decision.” … “I know these moments are never going to come again. This weekend made clear what I’d been thinking about for many weeks — that while politically this appears to be the right time for me to take the plunge — at this point, I want to have a real life.

“And while the chance may never come again, I shouldn’t move forward unless I’m willing to put everything else in my life on the back burner.”

“Spend more time with the family” is, perhaps, the more tiresome cliché in politics, but I don’t know Warner personally and it very well may be true. He has three teenage daughters and may have decided it was best not to subject them to the national spotlight. Warner’s wife kept a very low profile as Virginia’s First Lady, and it’s certainly possible he succumbed to family pressure.

Of course, with Warner stepping aside, a new round of speculation can begin.

First, what’s next for Warner? Rumors abound that Republican Sen. John Warner (no relation) is considering retirement at the end of his next term, which is two years away. Mark Warner ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in ’96, and it’s certainly possible he has his eye on the job, should that seat suddenly become vacant. Indeed, if John Warner retires, and Mark Warner wants to replace him, he’d instantly be considered the prohibitive favorite.

For that matter, Warner could very well run for governor again in 2009. Virginia is the only state that prohibits governors from seeking consecutive terms, but there’s no law against seeking non-consecutive terms.

Second, how does this affect the presidential race? Ryan Lizza suggests, “The big winner today is John Edwards, whose team has been slyly trying to undermine Warner in recent weeks, since it rightly saw the former Virginia governor as Edwards’ biggest threat to be the anti-Hillary.” Chris Bowers agrees.

That sounds about right to me. Warner was a top-tier contender, having positioned himself as a Southerner and an outsider. Edwards has hoped to fill the same bill.

I’d add that the move may also benefit New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D). If the party is looking for a governor in ’08, the top candidates were Warner and Richardson. With Warner out, Richardson, and perhaps Iowa’s Tom Vilsack, will have less competition.

Isn’t ’08 speculation fun?

As one of many Iowans I know who were keeping an eye on Warner, I find this disappointing. So much about these races anymore comes down to pre-existing name recognition and money to buy name ID, even in smaller states like Iowa, that Warner really never had any oxygen here with Hillary, Edwards, Kerry and Vilsack. We’ll never really know how good (or not) Warner might have been as a candidate or a potential president. On the one hand, I found him a little too centrist for me. On the other hand, having someone who, through founding a wireless company, understands modern technology, communications, the basic infrastructure of the modern age and the modern economy (unlike, say, Ted the Tube-man Stevens) and would be a strong advocate for the same was very attractive.

  • There seems to be some effort being given in the blogosphere to letting the air out of the Obama balloon, too, although I still think he’d have a good chance if he decided to give it a shot.

    So I guess we’ll just have to wait and see who rises to the top this time. Again.

  • I’m disappointed. Vilsack and Richardson are interesting, but the media will treat them, unlike Warner, as minor candidates. So we’re down to Edwards, Clinton, or Kerry, vs McCain. Two years to the election and it already feels stale.

  • I am genuinely disappointed. I thought Warner was one of the best positioned, best biographied, most likeable, authentic, and message-skilled Presidential candidates I’ve ever seen. I think he’s in Bill Clinton’s league. I thought the same of Clinton in 1991 when I first started looking at him.

    I also think the same of Edwards, though I believe we need hard (harder) economic times for his message/approach to work. We’ll see if fate delivers those conditions to Edwards; the trends are headed in that direction.

    Voters *do* vote partly on electability, this is nothing new. I suspect that there will be widespread agreement *outside* of the chattering classes that Obama is too new despite his great communications gifts; that Hillary is too unlikeable/risky; and that Gore (should he run) is (still) too cerebral, too wonky, too non-ordinary (Yes, I’ve seen him lately, no, my opinion of him has not changed since he blew 2000, when he should have won by 5 points.)

  • So I guess we’ll just have to wait and see who rises to the top this time. Again.

    Comment by Curmudgeon —

    I think you’re right. And for Democrats the cream rises to the top. For the Republicans. Shit floats.

    I wonder if Warner is the first victim of Bush’s newly riskfree domestic surveillance?

  • I wonder if there isn’t something about the Foley story that made him remember a long-dead skeleton that drove him to say, “Screw this, no need to have this sh*t coming out in June ’08.”

    I have no evidence of this. It’s pure and absolute speculation. If he’s really doing it to just be with his family, well, then I wish him well and all that. If not, then good luck and good night.

  • Well, as a Virginian who’s lived through his governership, he wasn’t that great a thrill. I’d prefer to see Richardson, Gore or Clinton run. Edwards still has to sell himself I think.

    Kerry, just not really appealing. Vilsack needs to do a lot of work.

  • Over at securingamerica.com — Wes Clark’s website — Clark just blogged during a delay at a Chicago airport. He has an incredibly grueling schedule right now, basically a different state every day (and one international conference) in support of congressional Democratic candidates. He’s got some very interesting stuff to say.

  • This is nothing but good news for Hillary and her rabid partisan supporters.

    Unfortunately, that’s not good news for the Democratic party at large since if Hillary is nominated, the Republican nominee will cruise to a landslide.

    Now, if Hillary gets squished in 2008, will she please go away?

  • I wonder what this does for Warner’s VP chances in ’08? Could this be part of a deal to get on the ticket?

  • Richardson would be interesting. Vilsack I’m not sure about. That sounds about as interesting as a Tom Daschle candidacy. Maybe it’s just cornbelt politicians.

  • RADAR online has a little blip about possibly the real reason that Warner is bowing out — he has some philandering in his closet that could derail his chances big time.

  • Richardson is an interesting character. Purely political, which is fine, but may not be sufficient to weather a general election. He came to our fair state of New Mexico because the district 1 seat opened up. As a congressman he was fine, as energy secretary he was o.k. (except that Wen ho Lee scandal will play right into the scandalmongering hands of the right), as U.N. Ambassador he was excellent, and as governor he’s been great. He’s got the legislative and executive credentials, so it will be interesting to see how it plays. He’s definitely making a run as evidenced by this comment from an AP story in the Las Cruces Sun News, “I don’t find it being a deterrent to my re-election,” Richardson says of the speculation about his White House aspirations. It’s a possibility. It might not happen. I think New Mexicans, through polling data I’ve seen and just general sentiment, accept that and are comfortable with it.”

    His fundraising also would suggest a bigger prize. He’s raised close to 11.6 million for his “re-election” campaign, including $3.2 million over the last three months alone. Dendahl, the republican candidate, has raised about $205,000. We are still a state where it doesn’t cost anywhere near a million dollars to run for governor.

    I love this speculation.

  • I wonder if Warner is the first victim of Bush’s newly riskfree domestic surveillance?

    My first thought: “where did they get that picture at midnight of the dark of the moon, with him doing that to that poor defenseless animal?”

    This just reeks of someone “having the goods” of some sort. Sorry, but the last 40 years of American politics have made me look at Presidential politics the way Suetonius looked at “The Twelve Caesars.”

  • “My first thought: “where did they get that picture at midnight of the dark of the moon, with him doing that to that poor defenseless animal?”

    This just reeks of someone “having the goods” of some sort.” — Tom Cleaver, @14

    I’m afraid I took it the same way. Not that I’ve ever heard even a hint of nasty rumours about Warner, but “family reasons” are, in US politics, as suspect as “health reasons” had been in the communist countries as an excuse for pulling out.

    “RADAR online has a little blip about possibly the real reason that Warner is bowing out — he has some philandering in his closet that could derail his chances big time” — NWtrnr, @12

    You have to be joking… These days, who *doesn’t* have philandering issues, even in the “values party”? McCain abandoned the wife who supported him through thick and thin, as soon as she got sick. Giulliani’s marital record is a model for what *not* to do. Allen (our VA Senator) had his divorce record sealed, because the scuttlebutt is he whacked the hell out of his first wife. On the Repub side, the only “steady” fella seems to be Foley.

    On our side, I’ve already had a prelude to what’s gonna come down if Hillary runs: she may not be sleeping around (or not so that it can be proved) but the cold bitch won’t sleep with her husband, which made him seek consolation with interns. And she’s totally without emotion — what other woman would stay with the cheating bastard?

    I think, politicians, like ballet dancers, should start training at 5yrs of age. If you know that’s what you want to do, you’d better keep your nose and butt clean… 🙂

  • I like Edwards a lot (voted for him in the primary) because of his populist positions, but the people have shown that they prefer a candidate with executive experience. I wish our guys would pay their dues and serve both in Washington and as governors, before reaching for the big one. Of course, NC already has a Dem. governor. I seem to remember that Edwards was born in SC, though; maybe he could run for governor *there*. 🙂

    This is also true for governors, like Clinton, who never served in Congress. How much time, screw-ups and missed opportunities would Clinton have avoided had he been savvy to Washington’s ways before running for President?

  • BC ( and anyone trying to prognosticate 2008 )

    Two years to the election and it already feels stale.

    I don’t mean to be dismissive but, folks, you should realize that no matter what happens in the current election, America will be a very different country two years from now. Whether the Repugs stay in power and keep their current course(*) or the Dems win one or two chambers of the Congress and open(**) the can of worm, it doesn’t matter. It will be much be much worse or much better but it won’t be the same country.

    (* : Because they don’t know how to do anything else. )
    (** : Most likely, very inadvertently. They’ll try to keep accountability to a minimum, just enough to please the base without rocking the boat but it will be like a dam. Open a small crack and the whole wall follows. )

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