‘Maybe it’s time for a deadline’

National Review’s Byron York isn’t exactly a “maverick” when it comes to bucking the traditional GOP line on issues like the war. It’s exactly why I was encouraged to see his latest missive about the Dems’ war policy.

It’s an article of faith in Republican circles that Congress should not impose deadlines on the U.S. troop presence in Iraq. But should deadlines be off limits in the Iraq debate? Maybe at this point, a deadline for the Iraqi government wouldn’t be a bad thing.

Yes, it’s true that a deadline would simply tell the enemy how long he has to wait before the U.S. leaves. But it would have the same effect on the Iraqi government, too, and that might be a good thing. Every instance in which there has been significant progress in Iraq — the writing of a constitution, election of a legislature, etc. — has come as a result of the U.S. pushing the Iraqis to meet a deadline. Without a deadline, they mess around, and mess around some more, and act as if they have all the time in the world. And even with a deadline, they are likely to miss it and delay until the last minute before getting anything done.

So maybe it’s time for a deadline.

What do you know; that’s exactly what some of us on the left have been saying for a year.

Matthew Yglesias sees some significance in York’s sudden reasonableness: “At long last some of the mainstream right is getting tired of this morass.”

I think that’s certainly possible, and I’m curious to see the schism expand between the “mainstream” right and the “rabid” right. Byron York and (hopefully) a few others are starting to realize that perhaps the Dems’ arguments in support of deadlines aren’t so radical after all. The rest of the right will, however, continue to insist that deadlines, benchmarks, and timelines are inherently evil, advocated only by terrorist-loving, America-hating traitors who comprise the nation’s fifth column.

More important, of course, is where Republican lawmakers fall on this continuum — mainstream vs. rabid. They don’t all have to find some semblance of reason, of course, just enough to help Dems change the government’s policy.

As for the broader point, Kevin Drum has an important piece noting the significance of the current conditions in Iraq.

Needless to say, the situation in Iraq after four years of bungling is pretty close to hopeless, but given that reality it’s also true that the current state of affairs is about as good as things could plausibly get. Consider:

* We have five more battalions either in Baghdad or on their way.

* We have a commanding general in Iraq who (we’re told) knows how to use them.

* We have a Democratic Congress making extremely credible threats to the Iraqi leadership that they need to make progress ASAP or else troops are likely to start coming home whether George Bush likes it or not. […]

The fact remains that five battalions is the best we can do, Petraeus is probably the best general available for this job, and congressional threats really are providing incentives to Iraqi leaders to resolve their differences. This is why I suspect that September might really be September.

So do I. For all the talk about the need for a Plan B, war supporters seem reluctant to acknowledge that they’re playing their last chip right now. The current policy is a) exactly what they said they want; and b) exactly what they said would work. There is nothing else. There are no secret backup plans on the president’s desk. They wanted this general, with these battalions, with these conditions. If the plan fails, they’ve failed.

Congressional Republicans have never ceased to amaze me in their capacity for self-delusion, but they really have reached the end of the road here. As many as 60 House Republicans opposed the surge policy when it was announced, but they’ve held their tongue since.

How much longer can that possibly continue?

CB: “How much longer can that possibly continue?”

York: “So maybe it’s time for a deadline [seeing that GOP 2008 election fortunes may very well depend on the status of the Iraq war, and the public is strongly situated against the GOP’s current position against timelines and growing stronger in support of such deadlines, and if the GOP Congressfolk do not adopt the deadline approach within the next 4 months or so it is going to be another massacre come November 2008].

  • Congressional Republicans already have a deadline in 2008. All they have to do is figure out how to fool the American people into thinking that Iraq wasn’t their fault.

    But Americans, stupid as they are sometimes, aren’t that stupid.

    I hope.

  • “war supporters seem reluctant to acknowledge that they’re playing their last chip right now”

    Time for a gambler’s anonymous intervention in 08.
    Expecting addicts to back away from the table on their own is a pipe dream.

  • I dunno. For most Republicans a deadline means admitting they were wrong. That’s the real “defeat” and “failure” they’re so afraid of. For that reason alone the administration will fight deadlines until they hit their own, on that beautiful day, January 18, 2009.

  • Bush will keep the troops in Iraq until he can slink out of office and blame the next guy, even if it means putting our troops under siege to do so. Knowing this, the strategy for the Dems should be to make that recalcitrance bleed the Republican Party for every drop they have, until they either peel away, or drift off into insignificance. Keep putting these guys on camera supporting this disaster and stick them in the warehouse for our campaign commercials in 2008.

    Either we’ll eventually have enough Republicans to override Bush’s veto, or we’ll increase our majority. That’s the choice we should give them.

  • The administration isn’t the issue. GOP reps and a good number of senators have to answer to their public in November 2008. Their publics’ minds will be made up in late 2007 or early 2008 on the primary issue of Iraq. Their interests (survival and reelection) deeply conflict with the interests of the administration.

  • Last night I witnessed a shouting match on PBS’s “Nightly News” on the subject of getting the US troops out of Iraq. I am completely baffled how this issue seems to be divided almost exclusively down party lines. I cannot understand how the hard-core right is so emotionally vitriolic in their condemnation of those with any opposing view except to stay in Iraq and “win” – whatever that means. I cannot understand, if this is the fight for our lives, why there aren”t a million US soldiers over their fighting “terrorism” and more volunteering by the droves daily to join the fight and why there is no draft to get even more soldiers into the mix? If this is “the” fight for civilization, why aren’t we, who are not directly in the fray, asked to sacrifice anything on any level?

    What is it that I’m missing that has the far hardcore right invested so heavily in keeping our troops in Iraq continueing this failed strategy?

    Can anyone enlighten me?

  • What is it that I’m missing that has the far hardcore right invested so heavily in keeping our troops in Iraq continueing this failed strategy?

    Can anyone enlighten me?

    Denial.

    Republicans are never wrong, only wronged. Stabbed in the back. Betrayed by pussies who lacked their resolve.

    When you understand conservatism is not an ideology but a religious cult, all this starts to make sense.

  • CNN’s story on the big dick’s “surprise” visit to Iraq is summarized thusly “Cheney in Iraq to warn them ‘it’s game time”!

    It’s game time? Hummm. 1) Does this mean even the big dick realizes pressure from the people will soon overwhelm the neocon efforts to stall and drag their feet? 2) WTF have we been doing for the last 4 years if game time is now?

    The big dick is such a freaking tool. He looks really nice in his bullet proof vest too (picture at Cnn.com).

  • Given all of the recent polling -and the amazingly tin-eared decision of the Iraqi government to take two months off – it seems the Dems have two pretty decent options for responding to Bush’s veto.

    First, we can do as John Edwards is pushing and simply send the same bill back. At some point, I’m not sure if the pragmatic segment of the population views that as a game, knowing it would be rejected.

    Second, we craft a bill with three components, none of which are hard withdrawal timelines: (1) explicit benchmarks for measuring progress; (2) explicit, under-oath reporting requirements (including reporting independent of the administration if plausible) to put the administration on record; (3) it only funds for June, July and August, expiring upon the arrival of that magical month of September.

    Such a bill would allow us to go to the public and say “look, we took out the withdrawal deadlines the President said were a deal-breaker, but he can’t expect a blank check. Who can oppose standards? And it has been all of his Generals and the Repubs in Congress saying we’ll know by September, so how can they object if we want to make sure we have a chance to reconsider once we “know”?” Add to that the reporting to keep Iraq in the news and the administration on a short leash and I think we’d have a huge winner both as a matter of substantive policy, and as a device to finally break through to a clear position of political strength behind an exit strategy for the war.

    We would also want, as part of the public argument on such a bill, make clear right up front from the earliest possible moment: “we provided an exit strategy where Bush has failed to give one to the public and the troops. He vetoed it. We showed a willingness to govern in a bi-partisan way by compromising and removing hard deadlines. But the public has made clear it wants us to have input and to be a check on this ill-thought-out war. Bush has made no effort to compromise. We will not do all of the work here. If he chooses to veto our second bill to fully fund the troops in the field, that is his choice, but there will be no third bill. He can wait for the regular budget process in October as he should have been doing for funding his war all along.”

  • What is it that I’m missing that has the far hardcore right invested so heavily in keeping our troops in Iraq continueing this failed strategy?

    Can anyone enlighten me?

    Read Conservatives Without Conscience by John Dean. It offeres imperical evidence explaining the conservative denial phenomenon. Basically conservatives are authoritarians, and authoritarians are generally unable to self-assess or admit their own failures.

    It’s all in there.

  • This whole thing about timelines being bad has bothered me from the beginning. When it is said that “the terrorists” – or whoever it is we’re talking about – will just wait for us to leave, what are they going to do at that point that they are not already doing? Is it just that it will get worse?

    Seriously, given that the level of attacks has either stayed the same, or increased some, since we started this surge, how is it we are certain that our presence is keeping the lid on the level of violence, and that our withdrawal will lift that lid?

    Is it our presence that is keeping the Iranians and the Syrians at bay? And if so, why does our presence have to be in Iraq, as opposed to being nearby?

  • Note that David Ignatius claims in the Washington Post this morning that Bush has assured the King of Saudi Arabia that the troops will stay in Iraq until Jan 20, 2009.

  • I agree with Zeitgeist’s proposal, and would allocate additional money that can only be used to withdraw in an orderly manner. We all have to be realistic, just because you want the troups to come home, doesn’t mean they arrive by the end of September ’07

    If the Democrats can show the ‘real’ numbers needed in order to withdraw the troups, by talking with and quoting military logistics personnel, then that would go a long way with the general public.

  • Anne asks good questions.

    I keep waiting for someone, anyone to ask those type of “real” questions to those in power. Ocassionally someone on the Sunday morning talk shows or one of the Washington press corps asks that type of question and typically gets a non-answer answer meant more to brush aside the question. Never, or almost never, is there a real and insistant follow-up to try and pin the person down.

    It is so frustrating and demoralizing to see and hear this over and over again. The shouting matches may be entertaining, but they really serve no purpose whatsoever.

    Hearing Alberto Gonzales in front of Congress, of course, was the absolute nadir or zenith (depending on how one chooses to look at this) of what passes these days for meaningful and forthright exchange.

    Either these people (politicians and the press that informs us of the politicians actions) are serious, conscientious, and principled or they’re not.

    To chrenson: I will get a copy of Dean’s book – thanks.

  • How much longer can that continue?

    See your post about Condi from earlier…

    We have had, since these traitors took office, hundreds and hundreds of in-your-face pieces of evidence of just how corrupt these bastards are, and people still voted for the fuckheads in ’04…

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