Maybe we can skip the culture-war fight this campaign?

May 16, 2008

In 2004, hoping to rally the Republican Party’s far-right base, the president did his level best to make gay marriage a key issue in the presidential campaign. Bush hadn’t shown much interest in the issue before, and seemed to quickly forget about the culture-war rallying cry once he’d won a second term, but the president realized that anti-gay animus, while painful and divisive, could be exploited for partisan gain. And since winning at all costs was paramount, Bush aimed low.

Given yesterday’s ruling on marriage equality from the California Supreme Court, it’s easy to imagine that we’ll see a replay, with McCain playing Bush’s role.

But part of me wonders if McCain really wants to bother. I noticed that the McCain campaign did not post a press release reacting to the court’s decision on its website, and ignored the subject on its blog. When the campaign did speak out, it seemed half-hearted. My friend Alex Koppelman noted:

Presumptive Republican nominee John McCain could use some support with his party’s social and religious conservatives, and could conceivably make a play on this issue in hopes of bringing them more firmly into his campaign. But, as of right now, there’s no indication he will end up doing so. On Wednesday, previewing the likely political effects of the then-impending ruling, the Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder wrote, “McCain, as you’ll recall, opposes the Federal Marriage Amendment on federalism grounds but has hinted that he might change his mind if state courts start overturning people-initiated decisions on gay rights.” Thursday’s decision did in fact overturn a law voted on directly by the people of California, offering the McCain campaign its opening, but its response was tepid.

In a statement, McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds said, “John McCain supports the right of the people of California to recognize marriage as a unique institution sanctioning the union between a man and a woman, just as he did in his home state of Arizona. John McCain doesn’t believe judges should be making these decisions.”

McCain’s record on gay rights is hardly reassuring. In 2005, far-right activists launched an anti-gay ballot initiative in Arizona. McCain not only endorsed the effort, but filmed campaign ads on the initiative’s behalf.

But is he really prepared to take on Obama in the fall with gay bashing?

I probably have unrealistic expectations for McCain’s standards of decency, but my hunch is he’ll focus his attention elsewhere.

TNR’s Michael Crowley noted this morning:

I’ll be interested to see how much hay McCain makes out of yesterday’s ruling in California. It’s worth keeping in mind that during the 2004 marriage debate in Congress, McCain, who opposed the Federal Marriage Amendment mainly on federalist grounds, also seemed to ridicule the notion that gay marriage would destroy civilization as we know it without some federal action:

“But he said the decision in Massachusetts to legalize same-sex marriages does ‘not represent a death knell to marriage.’…

‘We will have to wait a little longer to see if Armageddon has arrived.'”

I detect a bit of sarcasm there.

Yep, me too.

Once desperation sets in, McCain may very well change his mind. I suspect Bush didn’t want to use gay-bashing against Kerry, either, but Karl Rove told him it would be an electoral winner, so Bush played along.

Will McCain do the same? I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

May 16, 2008 at 11:41 am

Pink is the new Red!

http://gays4mccain.com/

There will be plenty of Culture War from the wingnut fringes like we saw with the half witted Kevin James. 527’s will also get involved.

The question is how effective is kulture war gonna be this time.

Never ever doubt that a Republican will use any cowpie he finds along the way as ammunition.

Given how seriously overpopulated California is, perhaps this decision will get all the whiteboy Taliban up in the Central valley tol go back to Oklahoma, while the whiteboy Taliban in Orange County can move to Idaho with the rest of the Nazis, and the whiteboy Taliban in San Diego County can go back to their co-religionists in Utah and marry their daughters off to their cousins.

One can hope.

I am willing to bet that the Theocrat’s attempt to overturn this decision with a constitutional amendment in November will fail. The right wing vote here is falling and they’re going to be depressed by then.

“Stop them gays” will always be a rallying cry for some people, unfortunately.

What I suspect/hope is that the GOP, running around like chickens with their heads cut off, really don’t know the best way to exploit this for maximum impact on their end and maximum damage on our end, because Obama has been up to now such a game-changer. If the GOP were to make a big deal about this, the narrative against them might become “with a tanking economy and a never-ending war and a terrorist mastermind still at large, THIS is the line you Republicans want to draw in the sand? Denying people the right to be happy with the partners they choose? You REALLY have nothing else better to do with your time?” The whole family value schtick blows up in the GOP’s face when their polcies have made it impossible for people to afford to have kids, or at least afford to spend time with them because they have to work more jobs for smaller salaries to afford to house house and clothe and feed them. When things are going great, the right-wing will make a bigger stink about their way of life being theatened. Right now, ALL of our ways of life are being threatened, and to make hay about this, now, is counter-productive to stop the hemorraghing they can expect this fall. Better to jeep gay marriage as an issue on the back burner, let a dolt like Jean Schmidt make an asinine comment once in a while so it doesn’t TOTALLY go away, then bring it up as an outrage -AN OUTRAGE I TELLS YA! – in 2012.

Unless Obama’s done a great job as President, in which case, they’ll be too busy committing hari-kari to care.

go right ahead. and we run this 60-sec spot.

[TRACKING SHOT OF OBAMA, DRESSED CASUALLY, WALKING TOWARD CAMERA DOWN RESIDENTIAL SIDEWALK]

OBAMA: I’ve said many times that I want to run a different kind of campaign, change our politics, and build a better government for all Americans that helps us solve problems together. But with the Republicans, it always seems to be about dividing us, wedge issues, culture wars. This week they started attacking me on the issue of same sex marriage. Culture wars – I don’t think Americans should be at war with one another – heck, John McCain needs to figure out how to get us out of the war in Iraq sooner than 100 years before we have wars with each other back home.

John McCain said he’d run a campaign that was better than this. And he should have kept his word and stuck to the real issues.

Because for virtually every American, the price of gas they pay every day to get to jobs and schools has a lot more impact than two women who want to commit to each other in California. The price they pay for food — and the question of whether that food will be safe — has a lot more impact than someone else’s same-sex marriage. Whether their jobs will still be there, whether they can afford medical care, whether their schools are good, and whether their streets are safe all matter more day in and day out than a cultural wedge issue.

Sadly, the Bush-McCain stay-the-course approach to Iraq will likely mean most communities will have more funerals for our heroic soldiers than they would ever have same sex marriages.

These are the issues that matter. So John McCain and the Republicans may attack me, but tell them they can’t fool you. Dividing Americans is not the way to get things done, not the way to preserve Americans’ hope for the future. There is a better America, a united America, an America focused on working together and solving problems. You and I, we can lead that America. And that’s a message I approve of. I’m Senator Barak Obama, and I’m asking for your support for President so we can change the tone in this country.

I would be curious to know how these cases get scheduled such that there is always a major decision like this in the Spring/Summer of every election year.

I am 100% certain that the GOP will use this issue as a wedge, no matter what McCain’s private qualms may be (remember, Bush is not personally homophobic, either– very few of these elected officials are. They just play homophobes on TV, so to speak, because it gets them elected).

A big reason we lost in ’04 was not the fact that the GOP used the issue against us, but rather, because Kerry was so mealy-mouthed (about every issue, not just that one,) that he couldn’t fight back. Obama is much better at confronting issues head-on, and calling out nonsense when he sees it. Gay marriage was not the “Nader” of ’04; the simple fact is, we had a sucky candidate then. Now, we don’t.

Tom Cleaver said: “Never ever doubt that a Republican will use any cowpie he finds along the way as ammunition.”

And thereby made the point I was going to make.

I’ve said it before, but I think that Kerry lost the 2004 election on the day that Massachusetts started performing legal gay marriages. That issue did a lot to fire up the Culture Warriors who voted for Bush in large numbers. The same will happen this year. Let’s hope it isn’t enough to tip the scales towards McCain.

Danp @ #6, I’ve actually become such a cynic that, when I saw that 6 of the 7 California judges were appointed by Republicans, my first thought was, “Of course they passed this! They’re trying to help the GOP at the national level! It’s all a ploy!”

And I still think that that may very well be the case.

If the youth vote increases enough, it will be less important. Obama also needs to continue to talk to black audiences about homophobia, as this is one of the potential groups against gay marriage in CA. But with Schwarzenegger supporting the court and opposing the gay marriage ban amendment, things will not be so easy for the culture warriors in CA.

I don’t know. Look at all the good that has come out of the past culture wars, like, um…

Okie @ #8, Kerry lost the election because he didn’t know how to respond to the issue. He hemmed and hawed and sounded like the “for-it-before-I-was-against-it” flip-flopper that the GOP made him out to be when he said he believed in equal rights for gays, but not gay marriage, and that he was against a federal marriage ban, but in favor of a state ban in Massachusetts. He let the GOP run roughshod over him, on that issue and on EVERY issue.

So far in this campaign, Obama has not been one to let things slide. He has fought back against every “cow-pie” thrown at him, and has been largely successful. He knows how to speak to voters (in actual English, not Senate-ese). I’m confident that he’ll be able to frame the whole debate much more effectively than Kerry– he needs to tell voters, “My opponent will try to distract you from the disastrous war, distract you from the mortgage crisis and an economy in peril, distract you from rising gas prices, distract you from the very real need for affordable health care, with one state court ruling. Well, I already know, you’re too smart to fall for that! You’re too smart to look the other way while your children’s college tuition goes up. You’re too smart to get distracted while CEO’s get tax breaks while their employees’ jobs get shipped overseas. You’re too smart to let my opponent’s temper tantrum over a non-issue, push the American dream out of your reach. You’re too smart!”

Something along those lines. 🙂

Well the repugs can’t expect the majority of Americans to support their agenda:

*Endless wars for enrichment of military-industrial complex (of which Oil is a major component

*Destruction of fiscal integrity of the Federal Government, which undermines state, county, and city government too

*Elimination of the most successful (and popular) government program of all time – Social Security (see point above)

*Government by a few major corporations

*Poverty for most Americans, broken homes and families

*More money to the wealthiest of the rich, transfering assess from middle class (and even the poor)

They have nothing to run on but lies and propaganda, all diligently “catapulted” by the MSM

OkieFromMuskogee

Dur chimpfuhrere didn’t “win” that election – was stolen. The theft was made possible by the culture wars – the MSM uses it to proclaim that “values votes” and “security moms” turn out in impossible numbers and cast votes in elections that are not open, not free, and not verifiable.

Check it out – OH recount officials were sent to jail for not demonstrating the elections there has any integrity. Of course, chimpy and gang are still in the WH with a free pass on this all.

The culture wars are what make it possible to steal elections.

It wasn’t only Karl Rove who advised gay bashing in the 2004 election. Bill Clinton advised Kerry to support the anti-gay marriage amendments in the states where they were on the ballot to obtain greater support.

While Bush took Karl Rove’s advice, Kerry did not take Bill Clinton’s advice.

I too believe the CA decision was designed to fan the culture war coals. There is only so much coincidence before one can rightfully suspect causatilon. Six of seven CA Supreme Court justices appointed by Rethugs, and a narrow 4-3 decision. Could it be that Rethug judges would make the right decision for the wrong reason? Would they really be that devious? Um. Yeah.

The Rethugs can’t win on the issues. The have to create distractions, change the subject, and control the news cycle. Ramping up homophobia is one of their all-time favorites. It works like a charm every time. Just watch the odious MSM latch onto it again like a dog with a bone.

Again, the GOP wins on social issues because we have run weak candidates who let them. When our side takes a strong stand and frames the issue as being laughable in terms of its relevance to the average American, and makes people feel as if they are smart to look beyond it– and, implicitly, that anyone who makes an issue of it at the expense of practical issues like the economy and the war is downright foolish, or even (gasp!) stupid– then we win. We do NOT have to do what Bill Clinton did in enacting DOMA and capitulating to the dark side. Gay rights can advance in this country AND the Democrats can win. It’s a matter of appealing to voters’ psychology.

right now – making this election about gay rights is going to give it to mclame – it isn’t that he needs to actually get more votes, the MSM just needs to be able to rationalize fraudulent results.

Worked in 2000, 2004, and will again in 2008

While Bush took Karl Rove’s advice, Kerry did not take Bill Clinton’s advice.

And thus was lost any prospect of my ever supporting The Clintons again. Samantha Power got it right: they’re monsters.

That said, I don’t think this will sink us this time, for a bunch of reasons:

1) McCain is both more honorable and stronger-willed than Bush. I know a lot of you don’t want to hear this, and I myself could never vote for someone with as many awful ideas and slimy allies/fellow-travelers as he as, but he is a better guy and would be a better president. Obama said as much; he’s right.

2) It’s not Obama’s home state. That it was Massachusetts in 2004 really hurt Kerry, I think; he couldn’t duck the association.

3) Obama isn’t Kerry. Mark Pencil and The Caped Composer got it right in their comments. As a Con Law professor and a lifelong conciliator/negotiator/advocate, Obama has this pitch in his wheelhouse, and he’ll drive it.

4) 2008 isn’t 2004. It might or might not be a stretch to argue that the demographics on this question get better for our side of it every single day, but public opinion pretty clearly is more sympathetic to the once-radical notion that gays are human beings today than was the case four years ago. Additionally, with the economy in the crapper and the war an unambiguous mess, Kulturkampf issues are going to have a much harder time grabbing headlines and mindshare.

Yesterday’s news was a great step forward for equality in America. We should celebrate it without fear–and push our Democrats on the ballot to do the same.

I think McCain will try to use it. No matter what he’s done in the past, he’s already shown that he made the choice to dump his principles when he decided to run for president this time. We’ve seen CB’s list of McCain’s flip-flops here many times- I predict this will be one more.

The only question is- was he planning to try to play the anti-gay card the whole time, or will he use the California decision as a target of opportunity.

If it wasn’t this it would be something else and the economy will still be tits up and the war will still be consuming lives and the price of gas will be a few cents higher and we’ve got another hurricane season on deck all before November. Mark Pencil nails it in his fantasy ad. Yeah the ReThugs will try to make this an issue and Obama will hand them their asses.

And to express a personal peeve:

This is a really exciting time for a lot of people but one of the first blog comments I saw yesterday was essentially, “Oh no more ammunition for the Republicans!”

Yeah, I see why people might say that but So what? I wish people could have celebrated for a few minutes before they began pissing on my Corn Flakes.

/grumble

Finally, regarding the “suspicious” timing of this ruling. Please read up on how a case gets from docket to ruling and let us know if you still think it is possible to time a court case to affect an election.

(You realize that by saying this is A GOP PLOT you’re kind of saying the people who brought the case were stupid enough to fall into the trap, don’t ya? Good.)

In the end, a stand on priciple is almost always worth taking. So what if it helps the bigots? Marriage equality is the only moral stand that a person who believes in freedom can take. If we lose, we lose. People who abandon their principles for the sake of expediency are the ones we hold in contempt here.

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