The one factor that encourages me most about the 2008 presidential campaign is a simple desire for change. Only once in the modern (post-WWII) political era has a political party won three consecutive presidential elections, and the public’s desire to break from the last eight years couldn’t be much stronger. Dems can (and will) argue about which leading Democratic candidate is best suited to take advantage of the opportunity, but the opportunity is there regardless.
Of course, undergirding all of this is the same dynamic that existed in the 2006 midterms — Dems want to connect every candidate with an “R” after his or her name with the least popular president in generations.
At the presidential level this year, Republicans may make this easy.
With President Bush’s job approval ratings hovering around 30 percent and four-fifths of Americans believing the country is on the wrong track, some Republicans say the best thing he could do this election season would be to simply stay out of the way.
But as Republicans coalesce around Senator John McCain of Arizona as their party’s 2008 presidential nominee, top advisers to Mr. McCain said they were eager for Mr. Bush’s embrace. And senior White House aides said they were plotting strategy for how Mr. Bush could use the power of his office — by raising money, setting the agenda and even stumping for Republicans in red states — to keep the presidency in Republican hands.
White House counselor Ed Gillespie told the NYT, “We understand that once there’s a nominee, the president won’t be the center of attention.” To which I say: Don’t be so sure.
Obviously, either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will present a compelling vision of the future to voters. Neither would come close to telling voters, “Vote for me; I’m the anti-Bush,” and both have substantive policy agendas that voters are likely to support.
But with varying degrees of subtlety, Dems will absolutely be running against the last eight years, and presenting McCain as “four more years.” They’d be foolish not to — Americans are disgusted with the status quo, and McCain is running on a platform that offers more of the same.
The fact that the McCain campaign is “eager for Mr. Bush’s embrace” is exactly what Dems would hope for. From McCain’s perspective, he could use the president to shore up some conservative support. From Bush’s perspective, he has a conservative legacy to protect and even he realizes that a Democratic president would undo most of what he’s done. And from the Dems’ perspective, if McCain wants to be tied to Mr. 28%, we’re happy to oblige.
With Mr. McCain facing resistance from conservatives, Mr. Bush has also emerged as the man Republicans, including the McCain camp, are counting on to unite the party. One McCain adviser, Charlie Black, called Mr. Bush “a political asset” in an interview last week. Another, speaking anonymously to discuss strategy, said Mr. Bush needed to “put his arms around John McCain,” by figuratively linking himself with the senator in public comments.
Could Dems really be this lucky? Is McCain so desperate for Republican approval that he’ll make the Dems’ election-year strategy easier? Does McCain realize that he needs independents, who are predisposed to like him, but will run screaming in the other direction if Bush “puts his arms around” the presumptive Republican nominee?
