The debate over the U.S. policy towards Iraq (and the debate over the debate) has taken several twists and turns over the course of five long and painful years, but if there’s one thing I thought the entire Republican establishment agreed on, it’s this: don’t disagree with Gen. David Petraeus. His judgment is sacrosanct, his word is gold, and his assessments of conditions in Iraq are unimpeachable.
Why, then, are John McCain and Dick Cheney contradicting Petraeus publicly?
Just four days ago, Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, told the Washington Post that “no one” in the U.S. and Iraqi governments “feels that there has been sufficient progress by any means in the area of national reconciliation,” or in the provision of basic public services.
As it turns out, “no one” doesn’t include John McCain, who feels there’s been plenty of progress…
“Anybody who believes the surge has not succeeded, militarily, politically and in most other ways, frankly, does not know the facts on the ground.”
… nor does it include Dick Cheney, who apparently sees political progress Petraeus doesn’t.
U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney on Monday declared the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq a “successful endeavor,” pointing to security and political progress on a visit ahead of the fifth anniversary of the war.
A new schism between Petraeus and Republican leaders? Well, probably not. It’s far more likely that McCain and Cheney have their political talking points to read, and don’t much care whether they contradict Petraeus’ comments or not.
As for what Iraqis think about conditions in their own country, a new poll was released this morning from ABC News, the BBC, ARD German TV, and the Japanese broadcaster NHK. Iraqis aren’t quite as despondent as they were, but it’s hard to characterize the results as significant progress.
Challenges remain broad and deep. Beyond their own lives, most Iraqis, 55 percent, still say things are going badly for the country, even if that’s down from a record 78 percent in August. Violence remains common, particularly in the cities; local car bombs or suicide attacks, just within the past six months, are reported by 45 percent in Baghdad, 51 percent in Kirkuk and 39 percent in Mosul.
Living conditions for many remain dire, with sizable majorities reporting a lack of electricity, fuel, clean water, medical care and sufficient jobs. Improvement in all these has been modest at best. Six in 10 say they can’t live where they choose without facing persecution, although this, too, is well down from its peak.
Sectarian differences remain vast. While more than six in 10 Shiites and seven in 10 Kurds say their own lives are going well, that drops to a third in the Sunni Arab minority. Eighty-three percent of Sunnis rate national conditions negatively. And while half of Shiites and six in 10 Kurds expect their children’s lives to be better than their own, a mere 12 percent of Sunnis share that most basic hope.
Ratings of the national government and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki remain weak — 43 and 40 percent positive, respectively — and sharply split by sectarian group. Just half think legislators are willing to compromise on key issues. The country divides on the state of Sunni-Shiite relations, and Arab-Kurdish relations are rated more negatively.
In a telling result, one question asked Iraqis whether this is a good time for the millions who have fled the country to return. Forty-five percent say yes, now is the time for those Iraqis to come back — but 54 percent say it’s not. (Not surprisingly, where security is rated positively, Iraqis are 20 points more likely to say it’s time to return.)
As for Iraqis’ views of Americans, the bad news is 42% of Iraqis call it “acceptable” to attack U.S. forces through violence. The good news is, that number is down from 57% last year.
Maybe someone can pass the numbers on to McCain and Cheney. It sounds like their perspectives aren’t quite in line with reality.