McCain comes full circle, Romney reels

January 9, 2008

If you had told political “experts” a year ago that John McCain would win the New Hampshire Republican primary by about five points, most would have said, “Sounds about right.” If you had given them the same outcome in July, the same experts would have said, “Fat chance; he’ll probably have dropped out by then.” If you had told them the outcome in November, they would have said, “With Romney’s lead? I don’t think so.”

And if you had told the experts the eventual outcome last week, they would have said, “Sounds about right.” McCain, in other words, has come full circle — he’s right back where he was expected to be.

Clearly, the bulk of the excitement last night came on the other side of the aisle, because Clinton’s upset win over Obama was so surprising. McCain’s success, in contrast, was right in line with predictions and polls, and therefore, not nearly as interesting.

Before getting into this in any real detail, let’s first note the results of New Hampshire’s Republican primary, with nearly all the precincts reporting:

1. McCain — 37.1%
2. Romney — 31.6%
3. Huckabee — 11.1%
4. Giuliani — 8.5%
5. Paul — 7.6%
6. Thompson — 1.2%
7. Hunter — 0.5%

As with the last post, let’s briefly go one at a time, taking a look at Spin vs. Reality for each of the Republican candidates.

John McCain — What McCain fans are saying: A New Hampshire victory is exactly what we needed to solidify our role as GOP frontrunner. What McCain critics are saying: If New Hampshire is McCain’s strongest state, why didn’t he come close to Clinton’s and Obama’s vote totals?

Who’s right? Regrettably, the fans are. It’s a best-of-bad-options environment given the Republican field, but it’s hard to see which of McCain’s rivals are going to catch him. If they’re going to go negative, in the hopes of slowing the senator down, expect it to get ugly.

Mitt Romney — What Romney fans are saying: Our guy is the only Republican to finish in the top two in both Iowa and New Hampshire. What Romney critics are saying: Didn’t you have a huge lead in New Hampshire just a few weeks ago?

Who’s right? Critics are. As of now, Romney was supposed to have two big wins under his belt, in states where polls showed him in very good shape. He was going to parlay those early victories to broader success elsewhere. Now, he’s reeling after two defeats in states where he spent a lot of money.

Mike Huckabee — What Huckabee fans are saying: Third-place finish exceeded expectations and keeps our guy in the game. What Huckabee critics are saying: Unless he starts raising a lot of money, and building a better campaign operation, Huck still can’t compete over the long haul.

Who’s right? Actually, both. Expect to hear quite a bit more talk in the coming weeks about how perfect Huckabee would be as McCain’s running mate.

Rudy Giuliani — What Giuliani fans are saying: Fourth-place finish reminds us a lot of 9/11. What Giuliani critics are saying: It wasn’t too long ago that Giuliani was leading in New Hampshire, which makes yesterday’s results rather humiliating.

Who’s right? Take a wild guess.

Ron Paul — What Paul fans are saying (probably in all-caps): We came awfully close to beating Giuliani, again. What Paul critics are saying: Paul still isn’t going to win anywhere.

Who’s right? Probably both, though yesterday’s fifth-place showing hurts Paul more than Iowa’s results. New Hampshire has a strong libertarian streak in its GOP, making it the ideal state for Paul’s message. In all likelihood, it’s downhill from here.

Fred Thompson — What Thompson fans are saying: We never liked New Hampshire anyway. What Thompson critics are saying: Yesterday’s showing was embarrassing, and without a really strong showing in South Carolina, Fred’s done.

Who’s right? Critics are. Thompson conceded yesterday that he’s putting it all on the line in South Carolina. Does this mean he might actually campaign a little?

Duncan Hunter — What Hunter fans are saying: We got one delegate in Wyoming! What Hunter critics are saying: Duncan who?

Who’s right? Critics. It’s not at all clear what Hunter hopes to accomplish by staying in the race, though I suspect he hopes to convince the eventual nominee to give him a job.

Stay tuned.

Can anyone find that list of polls calling for Obama to win except ONE?
CB said they would be deemed idiots or prescient.
That polling firm deserves MAJOR props.
I think it was SurveyUSA, but I don’t want to swear to it.

  • Do we know anything about Huckabee’s fundraising success (or lack of it) since his Iowa win? That was less than a week ago, and should have given his credibility a big lift.

    If, as I suspect, Huck is seeing some money roll in since Iowa, expect him to do extremely well in South Carolina because of its large Christian Right base. He may not win in SC because SC also has a lot of current and retired military families who will lean towards McCain, but he will do well.

    McCain/Huckabee would be a strong Republican ticket, perhaps the strongest possible. Not as scary as Giuliani/Somebody, but scary nevertheless.

  • Romney still leads in Delegates!

    He’s got 30 as of now, next closest, Huck at 21.
    Romney picked up more delegates by winning Wyoming (8), than McCain got last night (7) winning NH.

    This is no longer about who the “press wants to annoint” nor is it about early “momentum” this time.
    The compressed format has changed the dynamics, as it should be.

    Let’s play this out and see who is the last man standing. Romney has deep full pockets, he aint going anywhwere just yet. This game is just getting started.
    MSM and pundits be damned.

    If all Romney does is prevent Hucabee or McCain from ever getting the nomination and preserving the Reagan legacy, he will have provided a great service to this country.

    Remember that Romney is a geat CEO, going from plan A to B, C, etc.
    is natural to him.

    ajarizona

  • Not surprised about McCain, but very surprised about Obama – particularly given the turnout in the Democratic primary. Of course, New Hampshire has a strong tendency to be contrarian to the polls. Huckabee did as well, maybe even better, than one might expect. All he had going for him in New Hampshire was the Iowa “bounce” and you can see what it’s like trying to get a bounce off the Granite State. I would think that Romney should do well in Michigan, but since it’s that primary is open to independents and Democrats and since there is no Democratic primary, perhaps McCain will mortally wound the plastic man. If, on the other hand, Romney wins in Michigan and Huckabee wins in South Carolina, then the GOP will be in for a dogfight which will strain and further rupture the cracks in the conservative coalition. Voters will see three weak cnadiates with divergent and conflicting platforms. It could be a long primary season for the Democrats too. But unlike the Republicans, it looks like their primary could strengthen the party if they can refrain from negative attacks. Make the party – and the country – feel that there are two strong candiates with shared views and values. I hope John Edwards can do well enough so that his message will have meaning and not be seen as rejected by voters.

    I saw McCain in TV last night addressing his supporters. I then heard those same remarks on the radio. He does much better on the radio. On TV you saw him read his remarks, barely ever making eye contact with the audience and not uttering a single extemporaneous word. On the radio you would think he was speaking more directly. Also, he sounded very tired and with his age, that could be a factor.

  • What these candidates need are better nicknames. If one of them had come up with Edwards’ ‘Seabiscuit’ for himself, maybe we would have seen one of these guys turn it into a more decisive victory.

    Just saying.

  • The very short version: “Superdelegates” are Democratic elected officials (Senate, Congress, Governors) and party officials (DNC – not sure about state chairs) who are delegates to the National Convention that are “unpledged” — they are not bound to any particular state results and can vote however they please. There are around 800 of them (compared to around 3500 “pledged” delegates selected through primary and caucus process).

  • Tom wrote: “… the GOP will be in for a dogfight which will strain and further rupture the cracks in the conservative coalition.”

    Now there is a beautiful thought.

    If the punditry like the Prince of Darkness and Dr. GF Will keep attacking Huckabee as a ‘liberal evangelical’ because he actually believes in educating children, then I do expect the strains in that party to show.

    And if Edwards can learn to control his tongue just a little, things will get a lot better for the Democrats.

  • Without reading most of the spin, my assumption is two things happened in New Hampshire on the Democratic side. The independents went more towards the Republican ballot and McCain, as opposed to towards Obama like in Iowa. Secondly, women went more towards Clinton, again as opposed to what happened in Iowa.

    My guess is the tears Clinton shed softened her image some what and most likely got her more female votes.

  • ajarizona said:

    If all Romney does is prevent Hucabee or McCain from ever getting the nomination and preserving the Reagan legacy, he will have provided a great service to this country.

    Remember that Romney is a geat CEO, going from plan A to B, C, etc.
    is natural to him.

    That’s just what we’re afraid of.

    Plan A – economic slump,,, solution: cut the taxes of millionaires (again).
    Plan B – recession… solution: cut the income taxes of millionaires to zero (the real Republican “Flat Tax”)
    Plan C – depression… solution: exempt millionaires from all state and local taxes

    What we’re trying to do her is undo the Reagan legacy before things get any worse.

  • Neither Huckabee fans nor critics are saying he needs to put a few books on his bookshelf? Find someone who can tell him what the NIE is or where Pakistan is? How sad.

  • OkieFromMuskogee said:

    McCain/Huckabee would be a strong Republican ticket, perhaps the strongest possible. Not as scary as Giuliani/Somebody, but scary nevertheless.

    Huckabee and the Rapture Republicans holding McCain’s coat while he bombs all those brown people in the Middle East and brings about the End Days. Yep, that’s just what we need.

  • Joe D said: “My guess is the tears Clinton shed softened her image some what and most likely got her more female votes.”

    Hillary didn’t actually shed any tears. Does no one in this world give the woman credit for keeping it together?

    Look, everybody human (by which I exclude the Cyborg Cheney) is on occasion moved to tears. Under some circumstances one had best control them (like a room full of potential voters). It’s not a character defect to be moved to tears and it’s not a character defect to be able to control them and continue making your case.

  • First, it was a Suffolk University poll that had Clinton at 35%, Obama at 33% and Edwards at 14%; Steve referenced it in a post on Monday, I believe.

    Second, with the polls giving Obama a double digit lead over Clinton, I think it’s possible that there were some independents who figured Obama wouldn’t need their votes to win, and decided to use their magic voting powers to affect the Republican outcome – possibly to make sure that Romney didn’t end up with a win. Seems plausible to me.

    Third, McCain’s speech to the crowd was terrible – I still can’t believe he had to read it, and worse, that he read it like he was reading instructions on how to program his TIVO. [By the way, I know this may sound mean, but does anyone else find themselves being reminded of Tim Conway’s character “Mr. Tudball” when they see McCain? I don’t know – maybe it’s just me – and some of you may be too young to remember that character]

    Finally, of the total votes cast, Democrats received about 57%, and Republicans 43% – I think I like those numbers.

  • re: anne #16/3 — the speech mccain gave was embarrassing; even the adoring commentators on MSNBC were ripping him to shreds over it. perhaps mccain is good on his feet, but if he’d be giving a state of a union address with that kind of delivery the rest of the world would wonder how the US could elect gramps to the white house. age, as they say, is just a state of mind, but the reality is mccain comes across as really old.

  • entheo said: “…the rest of the world would wonder how the US could elect gramps to the white house….”

    The rest of the world can’t believe anyone who we’ve voted into the White House since Eisenhower.

  • McCain has lost his mind. He is purely driven to be president no matter what. He has more flip-flops (pandering) than any candidate I have seen – well, moreso than the other GOPers, which is pretty significant.

    That this man who was tortured in Vietnam and was always against it now supports it? He completely supports war? He’s pandering because he wants to die having been “the most powerful man on earth” and there is nothing more to him than that.

    I still cannot believe that 202k voters voted republican. Have they been absent for the last six years?

    Since Obama has IL probably shored up, and since Edwards is but a fond memory in my eyes (after his sexist statement – and again I have to add this, HRC DID NOT SHED TEARS, she choked up. It’s a human thing which some people obviously are not), I think I’ll be voting for Huck because I want him as the GOP candidate in the general. While he might carry the thumper vote, no rational thinking person in this country would vote for him no matter how they spin him. Bush got elected because he had the best liars around. You can’t spin Huck; no matter how you slice and dice him he has too much weirdness to be accepted beyond southern borders.

  • Not that it probably matters to you at this point, Joanne, but Edwards did explain that he was not putting her down and that he has the utmost respect for Clinton.

    I think the mistake we all have the potential to make is assuming we know what someone is thinking, or what someone meant when he or she said something. I will grant you that that means it’s imperative that people communicate at the highest level – but just as it infuriates you that people keep saying Clinton cried, it is just as infuriating when people insist they know what someone’s words meant.

    And I can’t help but think that if all it took was one ambiguous comment from Edwards to shift your allegiance, it’s hard for me to believe your support was ever that solid. The power of words at work.

  • Why None of the Republican Candidates Should Be President

    John McCain – Simply not the worst of 7 guys who really suck

    Rudy Guiliani – 9/11 abuse, should be imprisoned at Ground Zero for all eternity

    Mike Huckabee -Theocratic Bush supporter – Crusades 2009 anyone?

    Mitt Romney – Godless Bush Supporter, Voldemort in a better package

    Fred Thompson – Bush/ Cheney supporter with houndog eyes

    Ron Paul – WhoTF is this guy and why is he running for president?

    Duncan Hunter – Tancredo come lately

  • New Hampshire was a bummer for us Ron Paul supporters, no doubt, but there’s still a positive way to spin the election results to date.

    If you combine the Iowa and NH vote totals, it shows that Ron Paul is alone in 4th place, with 22% more votes than Rudy Giuliani and 58% more votes than Fred Thompson.

    Ron Paul has recieved 29,648 total votes, compared with 24,151 votes for Giuliani and 18,712 votes for Thompson.

    Here’s the tally
    TOTAL
    IOWA NH VOTES Percent
    Romney 29,949 73,806 103,755 30.0%
    McCain 15,559 86,802 102,361 29.6%
    Huckabee 40,841 26,035 66,876 19.4%
    Paul 11,817 17,831 29,648 8.6%
    Giuliani 4,097 20,054 24,151 7.0%
    Thompson 15,904 2,808 18,712 5.4%

    In a field of six strong candidates, Ron Paul is comfortably in 4th place, proving beyond a doubt that he is a top-tier candidate.

  • Deborah wrote: “Ron Paul – WhoTF is this guy and why is he running for president?”

    He’s just a reminder to everybody that there are about 5% of Americans who are not reconciled to living in a regulatory state. You know, the ones who don’t care what goes into processed food because they go out and kill their own 😉

    As for you Kelly Welsh, Ron Paul needed to breach 10% to get a delegate out of New Hampshire, the most libertarian state in the country. Now maybe the vast number of undeclares (indepedents to us non-New Hampshirans) hadn’t joined the Republican’t primary, Paul would have made 10%. But the fact is he didn’t and totally his votes accross states doesn’t count.

    How did he do in Wyoming, home of the Cyborg (Cheney)?

  • CB – For a blogger who always does good work, this post was a hoot! To be spot-on, concise and tongue-in-cheek at the same time takes talent.

    A report on Rudy’s concession speech, made when like 1% of the votes were in, had him repeating the Thompson line “we weren’t going to win here anyway, so on to Florida.”

    Looks like Mitt will need a new pair of magic underwear, the ones he has on ain’t working (sorry for the gratuitous joke but I couldn’t resist.)

    Fred has to hearing those mint juleps calling his name.

    Looking at Huck’s low finish, one has to wonder if the theocratic wing of the Republican party is pissed at the rest of the gang. How dare fellow Republicans shoot down a man of the cloth!

  • entheo said (#18) “age, as they say, is just a state of mind, but the reality is mccain comes across as really old.”

    If McCain really does get the Rep. nomination, has anyone thought about the fact that with his age, who he picks as his running mate is very significant? I’m not sure how Democrats tactfully mention “do you really want to chance running mate x becoming president if McCain dies?”, but surely it’s something the average voter ought to consider.

  • REPUBLICANSWAKEUP said: “Republicans wake up why are we allowing the media to pick our candidate ?”

    That would be because you hate them all 😉

  • LOL, Duncan Hunter has already been offered a job by most of the other candidates. Both Sec of Defense and VP slots… Hunter will be at the Republican convention with delegates in hand. What happens after that remains to be seen.

    I can certainly understand why the others and their supporters would want Hunter to just go away, he is a true conservative and they are not. The longer he stays in the race, the less any of the others can afford to be compared to Hunter on the issues of illegal immigration, national security, taxes, trade, jobs and conservative principals. See you at the convention.
    GoHunter08

  • red stater said: “I can certainly understand why the others and their supporters would want Hunter to just go away, he is a true conservative and they are not.”

    This is the guy who calls mainland Chinese feeling Communist tyranny and seeking a new life in Capitalist America as dangerous plants of Beijing…

    … yep, the best that the Republican’ts can do, that’s Duncan Hunter.

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