The 2008 presidential campaign effectively started long before yesterday’s elections shook up Congress, and it’s only natural that that every likely candidate wants to use the results to boost their respective chances. Some, like Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), have a very tough pitch to make today. Meanwhile, four Republican governors who’ve been thinking about the ’08 race — Arkansas’ Mike Huckabee, Massachusetts’ Mitt Romney, New York’s George Pataki, and Colorado’s Bill Owens — all saw Democrats win in the race to replace them, which hurts their standing a bit.
And then there’s Sen. [tag]John McCain[/tag] (R-Ariz.), who, just a couple of week ago, joked that he’d “commit suicide” if Dems reclaimed the Senate majority. The far-right Washington Times characterized the Arizona senator as one of the few Republicans who benefited from this year’s Democratic gains.
Sen. John McCain emerged from yesterday’s elections as one of Republicans’ only winners as Democrats made solid gains and both parties turn an eye toward 2008.
The Arizona Republican, who wasn’t up for re-election, rallied to the side of Republican candidates at 131 events — a strong showing that displayed his rising popularity. His strength was underscored Monday when Charlie Crist, Florida’s new Republican governor, chose to skip a scheduled rally with President Bush for an event with Mr. McCain.
“There’s going to be a batch of people who are going to personally owe McCain and there’s going to be another batch of people who are going to have to rethink their view of him,” said Michael McKenna, a Republican strategist and pollster.
There are a couple of things wrong with this. First, McCain did campaign for a lot of Republicans, most of whom feel indebted to him today, but many of whom lost. Second, the GOP establishment can “rethink” McCain all they want, but that won’t change the fact that voters made it quite clear yesterday that he’s wildly off-base on one of the central issues of the day.
The “rethink” approach articulated by McKenna is probably based on the notion that Republicans lost independent voters, McCain is generally popular with independent voters, so if the GOP is going to win, McCain is the right guy to follow.
In addition to corruption, frustration with Iraq is clearly driving [last night’s] results. And, as Tim Russert just suggested on MSNBC, it’s hard to see how you can be a major-party nominee in 2008 without a plan for withdrawing from Iraq. Well, just about the only person in America other than George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, and Don Rumsfeld who thinks we need to double-down in Iraq is John McCain.
Now, as my colleague John Judis has suggested, it’s possible that McCain’s position will evolve over the next two years. But, for the moment, he’s looking like the first-tier GOP candidate most out of touch with the voting public.
The Dobson crowd doesn’t trust McCain and is convinced he’s a phony; the anti-immigration crowd thinks McCain is a heretic; and no one in Congress supports the unpopular war in Iraq with as much enthusiasm as McCain.
The Washington Times may see him as a “winner” after last night, but I see coming out of 2006 as damaged goods.