One way or another, Florida’s Republican presidential primary was going to answer some key questions. Who’s the GOP frontrunner? Can John McCain win in a state with a primary that excludes independents? Could Mitt Romney capitalize on voters’ economic fears? Would Rudy Giuliani’s fiasco come to a merciful end?
All of these questions and more seem considerably clearer this morning. With just about all of the precincts reporting, the final results from Florida look like this:
1. John McCain — 36.0%
2. Mitt Romney — 31.1%
3. Rudy Giuliani — 14.6%
4. Mike Huckabee — 13.5%
5. Ron Paul — 3.2%
It’s worth noting that Romney’s results were actually pretty impressive. As recently as a couple of weeks ago, he was running fourth in Florida, behind Huckabee, McCain, and Giuliani. Thanks to a very aggressive push, and a huge investment, he closed the gap quickly and came within five points of the upset.
Also keep in mind that McCain, while winning his first closed primary, still struggled to connect with the Republican base. Exit polls showed 62% of Florida GOP voters identified themselves as conservative and preferred Romney to McCain, 37% to 27%. But McCain cruised among Republicans who described themselves as moderate or left-leaning, beating Romney among these groups by nearly a 2-to-1 margin.
The result, of course, is an undisputed frontrunner for the Republican nomination. McCain not only walks away with a hefty 57-delegate night — Florida has a winner-take-all primary — but will also enter Feb. 5, with its 21 contests, with everything in place to seal the deal.
As I’m usually inclined to do, let’s briefly go one at a time, taking a look at Spin vs. Reality for each of the Republican candidates.
John McCain — What McCain fans are saying: That’s Mister Republican Frontrunner, to you. What McCain critics are saying: Are we really stuck with this guy?
Who’s right? Fans are. The snowball is rolling, getting bigger, and picking up steam. Fundraising will pick up — Republican donors love to bet on a winner — and the base will slowly start to resign itself to the political reality. Over the last year, the presidential campaign has produced no end of surprising twists and turns, and it’s possible some still-unknown scandal or health problem could pop up, but short of that, it’s hard to see how McCain falters from here on out.
Mitt Romney — What Romney fans are saying: We came this close, and could have won if we had a little more time. What Romney critics are saying: Don’t spend too much of that personal fortune, Mitt, because it’s not going to happen.
Who’s right? Well, probably both. Watch to see if Romney, left with no other choices, launches a last-gasp, scorched-earth strategy against McCain, because staying positive, at this point, won’t help close the gap. (Ann Romney said last night, “This is not an end, this is a beginning.” It’s hard to see how that’s true.)
Rudy Giuliani — What Giuliani fans are saying: We finally beat Ron Paul! What Giuliani critics are saying: Don’t go away mad, Rudy, just go away.
Who’s right? Critics are, as evidenced by the fact that Giuliani spoke of his campaign in the past tense during his concession speech last night. Giuliani is dropping out today and endorsing McCain. (I’ll have more on this in the next post.)
Mike Huckabee — What Huckabee fans are saying: Wouldn’t our guy make a great running mate for McCain? What Huckabee critics are saying: Hope you enjoyed your 15 minutes of fame, Mike, because they’re done.
Who’s right? Critics are. Nevertheless, Huckabee is planning to stick around for a while — he has nothing else to do — which will certainly help McCain, in large part because the party’s anti-McCain conservatives will remain split. Huckabee probably has some intention of competing in Southern Feb. 5 states such as Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee, but he won’t have the resources to make a serious go at it.
Ron Paul — What Paul fans are saying: ‘Tis but a flesh wound. What Paul critics are saying: You’re a loony.
Who’s right? Critics are, but there’s actually a more important question to consider. Paul clearly has no realistic shot at winning any Republican contest moving forward, and the GOP nomination will apparently go to a war-supporter with neocon tendencies. If Paul is serious about mounting a third-party effort, he’ll have to get started very soon.