Just a few months ago, in his first major address on foreign policy, John McCain stated his intention to kick Russia out of the G-8. In rather belligerent tones, reminiscent of the Cold War, McCain said he would not tolerate “Russia’s nuclear blackmail or cyber attacks,” and suggested Russia is not a democracy “committed to the defense of freedom.” McCain added, in case there were any ambiguities, that we “should … exclude Russia” from the G8.
The policy always seemed like a very bad idea, and the foreign policy establishment couldn’t imagine what McCain was talking about. What’s more, it wasn’t just an unscripted response at a town-hall meeting; this was McCain reading from a prepared text in a high-profile speech.
Now, however, McCain apparently no longer believes what he said he believes.
[A McCain adviser who spoke on condition of anonymity] dismissed McCain’s comment last October on Russia and the G-8 as “a holdover from an earlier period,” adding: “It doesn’t reflect where he is right now.”
I’m afraid that’s not much of an answer. First, McCain announced his position on Russia and the G8 in March, not October. Whether it was “a holdover from an earlier period” or not is irrelevant — McCain told voters this was a key component of his foreign policy vision. At some point recently, McCain decided he believes the opposite.
For that matter, his carefully-crafted worldview in March “doesn’t reflect where he is right now”? Perhaps the McCain campaign could do us a favor and list the other parts of his foreign policy from March that he no longer accepts in June. (Remember, just yesterday, McCain’s in-house blogger, Michael Goldfarb, admonished Obama for trying to “have it both ways” on issues.)
Yglesias adds a possible wrinkle: maybe the anonymous McCain adviser is wrong:
My guess is that the McCain adviser here is mistaken — [the advisor] knows this is a bad idea, so he’d like to think that McCain has flip-flopped away from it. But though McCain has changed positions on a lot of issues over the years, he’s been pretty consistent ever since 1999 or so on foreign policy questions — taking the most hawkish line on every issue, seeking to ratchet-up tensions with every potential rival, etc. But if McCain has changed his mind about this, and I hope he has, he should say so clearly rather than through an anonymous quote.
Quite right. Either McCain plans to work on kicking Russia out of the G8 or he doesn’t. We should either believe what the senator told us, or we should believe what his advisor tells the press. Maybe the “straight talking” candidate can straighten this out for us.
And while he’s at it, perhaps he can explain how he came to believe he could kick Russia out of the G8 in the first place…
John McCain dropped a little-noticed bombshell into his March foreign-policy address: Boot Russia from the G-8, the elite club of leading industrial democracies whose leaders try to coordinate economic policies.
One major problem: He can’t do it because the other G-8 nations won’t let him…. The Group of Eight, or G-8, as it’s popularly known, makes decisions by consensus, so no single nation can kick out another. Most experts say the six other countries — Great Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Japan and Canada — would never agree to toss Russia, given their close economic ties to their neighbor. A senior U.S. official who deals with Russia policy said that even Moscow would have to approve of its own ouster, given how the G-8 works.
“It’s not even a theoretical discussion. It’s an impossible discussion,” said the senior official, who requested anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak publicly. “It’s just a dumb thing.” (emphasis added)
…and why he thought it was a good idea.
Aside from that, many wonder whether McCain’s suggestion would be wise policy. They fear that if McCain is elected and follows through on an attempt to toss Russia from the group, it could anger and isolate Russia, which has been increasingly assertive on the world stage, autocratic within its borders and is the second-largest producer of the hydrocarbons that feed the world’s energy needs.
“In Europe, there’s very little support … for a policy like that,” said Stephen Larrabee, an expert on Europe and Russia at the RAND think tank. “It’s too late in the game to try and oust Russia.”
The proposal also seemed at odds with the theme of McCain’s speech, which promised a less unilateral approach to world affairs than the Bush White House has pursued. That could reflect tension between two Republican foreign-policy camps vying for influence in McCain’s campaign: the pragmatic realists and the hard-line neo-conservatives — with the neo-cons ascendant for now in Russia policy.
“There are a lot of important issues that we need Russia’s support on….What’s to be gained by tossing Russia out? We feel more self-righteous about ourselves?” said Andrew Kuchins, the director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, a center-right think tank.
Maybe his stated position no longer “reflects where he is right now.” I hope so. But here’s one last question: if McCain shifts with the wind, how can voters know where he’ll end up?