McCain’s mixed messages

For the last couple of weeks, as Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has been more forceful in his demands for tens of thousands of additional troops in Iraq, his messages have started to conflict a bit. Over the weekend, for example, McCain acknowledged that if his own plan was implemented, “it would be terrible.” He added that “we’re going to be asking people to go back again and again, maybe even extend their tours.” McCain said he “saw a broken Army in 1973” and didn’t want to see another.

I suppose the argument is, “My plan is bad, but the alternative is worse.” Fine. I think he’s wrong, but it’s his argument and he’s sticking to it. Today, however, McCain went a little further with this line of thinking, arguing that “we will not win this war” without additional combat forces in Iraq.

In carefully scripted language, McCain then adds: If the country does not have the will to do what it takes to win in Iraq — send in more forces — then U.S. troops should not be made to serve more tours of duty.

“As troubling as it is, I can ask a young Marine to go back to Iraq,” he said last week. “What I cannot do is ask him to return to Iraq, to risk life and limb, so that we might delay our defeat for a few months or a year. That is more to ask than patriotism requires.

“It would be immoral, and I could not do it,” the former Vietnam prisoner of war added.

As Greg Sargent noted, this leads to a fairly obvious, important question.

There is no ambiguity there whatsoever: McCain very clearly stated that if additional troops aren’t sent into Iraq, the war will be unwinnable. And if that becomes the case, McCain said, he “cannot” ask soldiers to return to Iraq. This would be “immoral,” he says.

Okay, then — if President Bush decides against troop increases, will McCain then stop supporting the continued troop presence there and call for withdrawal? Will the media press him on this point? And if McCain does continue to support the U.S. troops staying in Iraq — which by his own lights would be “immoral” — will reporters and commentators note the glaring contradiction?

Quite right. McCain can’t have it both ways — he wants 20,000 more troops, and if Bush disagrees and goes in a different direction, McCain necessarily believes the war will be lost. As such, if Bush doesn’t boost troop deployment, McCain has to support withdrawal, right?

It’s the inconvenient flip side to the point we were talking about yesterday. McCain is separating himself from Bush’s policy by calling for an additional 20,000 troops. As Robert Reich explained, this is a way for McCain to “effectively cover his ass. It will allow him to say, ‘If the President did what I urged him to do, none of this would have happened.'”

But there’s a trap. If the president doesn’t do what McCain urges him to do, McCain is left in the untenable position of joining Dems in calling for a withdrawal (which he doesn’t want to do) or standing by a war policy he’s already described as “immoral” (which he can’t do).

Your move, senator.

or, there is Door #3: join with Rangel in support of a draft. if the Admin’s excuse for not following McCain’s lead is a lack of forces, or McCain is simply saying he can’t extend tours of duty or send soldiers back to Iraq to get his 20,000 additional troops, then McCain’s choices really seem to be to support either withdrawal or a draft. And if winning is as important as the Rethugs have made it sound, the draft would presumably be the better of the two options (not in my mind, you understand, but following McCain-think).

  • McCain’s position is only untenable if anyone outside of a few narrowly targeted blogs or obscure policy magazines point out this tension in his statements. Back in the unexamined world where TomKat’s wedding receives more coverage than the fact that the GOP has decided to abandon its obligations to complete the already overdue budget bills, McCain the Maverick (TM) will continue to “be strong” and urge more troops, never acceding his blustery rhetoric to anything like reality.

  • or, there is Door #3: join with Rangel in support of a draft.

    However, that violates McCain’s overarching concern: do nothing to jeopardize 2008 presidential ambitions. If he comes out in favor of a draft, he’s no longer a viable presidential contender.

    What about getting 20k troops from Korea and West Germany? Are they just the wrong kinds of troops? (this question is in all sincerity…I know the troops in Germany are largely tank based forces, but are they all? and what about Korea?).

    Please note, I’m not advocating sending in more troops, I’m just curious as to all the ways McCain could potentiall get his 20k troops short of a draft.

  • 20k just isn’t enough. They moved just about than many to Baghdad and things didn’t get any better.

    If Rumsfeld had increased troop numbers as his commander suggested, we might be able to try the ‘lots more troops’ alternative. As it is, our options are limited.

    Whether you supported the war or were against it, this administration has been an utter failure.

  • Edo — Good question on forces in Germany and Korea. There are two portions of this answer.

    The first is that the Germany based combat and combat support forces are already in the rotation. The 1st Armored Division, and the 1st Infantry Division are the two major American combat formations in Europe (although they are in the process of moving back to Texas and Kansas to save money). The 1st Armored is wrapping up their second combat tour by Feb. 15, 2007, while the 1st Infantry has two tours of duty under its belt already. European based engineers, artillery, military police, military intel etc units are also in the normal force rotation. The same basic situation also applies for the Korean forces, mainly the 2nd Infantry Division. That division has pulled back from its forward positions, and sent a brigade that previously was deployed in Korea to either Iraq or Afghanistan (I forget, as I don’t have my notes with me right now) and then back to the West Coast for reassignment. So the US has been drawing on its other forward deployed forces for combat formations.

    However in each theatre there are thousands of soldiers who have not deployed to Iraq and are extremely unlikely to deploy to Iraq because they are running the infrastructure within the theatre (some headquarters, joint coordination commands, the fuel depots etc)

  • McCain has his tail in his mouth, and he’s chewing hard. He still hasn’t come to grips with the reality of the situation, and he won’t because his kids aren’t being shot at every day or coming home with missing limbs or in a box that can’t be photographed. He’s trying to rally the king’s horses to take another crack at Humpty Dumpty.

    He, and every other person who opposes withdrawal needs to be asked at every opportunity if more American casualties are worth giving the Iraqi government more time to get its act together. Yes or no. And this business of asking for more troops when there aren’t any should be called by the media, and it is (more lately than I expected).

    What may happen is that Bush will scrape upa portion of the troops McCain is asking for, and thus provide both with some temporary political cover. Of course this will not be an action designed to win anything but political battles.

    Or maybe Bush will nuke Iran and start WWIII, thus changing the topic.

  • Doesn’t anyone on McCain’s staff review his material before he presents it? The logical conclusions and potential consequences as noted by CB above are so obvious a blind man could see them with a cane, but old John just can’t seem to figure out what kind of corner his words are backing himself into.

    Somebody needs to throw the guy a rope before he hangs himself altogether.

  • I think politicians are having problems realizing that with the internet yesterday’s speeches don’t go away. If their message isn’t consistent there is a whole blogosphere ready to point that out.

  • Lessen I ain’t remembering rightly, I do believe that Boy George II is going to temp’rarly up the numbers of soldier in there ‘Raq place by 20,000. That being so, won’t the Bushites be able to tell ol’ Johnny we tried yours idea and it ain’t working?

    Or maybe the rumors are just a ploy.

  • I think politicians are having problems realizing that with the internet yesterday’s speeches don’t go away. If their message isn’t consistent there is a whole blogosphere ready to point that out.

    Yeah, and if you’re looking for McCain to be consistent with his past positions, then fine. I’m still waiting for the suicide he promised a few weeks ago. I’d settle for his lying about everything else if he’d just follow through with that one promise.

  • Maybe we can Eddie Murphy to do another “Dr. Doolittle” sequel—and JohnBoy can play the “Push-Me-Pull-You….”

  • fester,

    thanks for the insights. So, despite what the “experts” at The Weekly Standard claim, there really isn’t any source for extra troops is there (short of a draft of course)?

    curmudgeon,

    Somebody needs to throw the guy a rope before he hangs himself altogether.

    or not.

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