The good news for Republicans in Washington these days is that they control everything. The bad news is they’re poised to lose a good chunk of that control in November and they’re not sure what to do about it. GOP pollster [tag]Jan van Lohuizen[/tag] wrote a memo for Republican National Committee Chairman [tag]Ken Mehlman[/tag] earlier this month with strong advice: run with, not from, Bush.
The memo, obtained by National Journal, insists that rank-and-file Republican voters remain loyal to [tag]Bush[/tag], so candidates that drive “a wedge between themselves and the President” undermine the party’s broader prospects. The [tag]van Lohuizen[/tag] memo also suggests there are real fears within the Republican establishment about depressed [tag]Republican turnout[/tag] running up against elevated turnout from angry Dems, which could be exacerbated by GOP candidates distancing themselves from the Bush White House.
“The President is seen universally as the face of the Republican Party. We are now [tag]brand W. Republicans[/tag]. […]
“President Bush drives our image and will do so until we have real national front-runners for the ’08 nomination. Attacking the President is counter productive for all Republicans, not just the candidates launching the attacks. If he drops, we all drop.”
The memo to Mehlman and the RNC is an implicit acknowledgement that Republicans are at least considering running away from Bush, otherwise the advice would be unnecessary. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the memo was leaked to National Journal by the RNC intentionally as a subtle shot across congressional Republicans’ bow. Mehlman expects nervous candidates to run away from Bush, so he’s pushing hard to see that it doesn’t happen.
I’m hardly a disinterested observer, but I don’t quite know what the midterm strategy is for the GOP right now. If they run as “[tag]W Brand Republicans[/tag],” they tie themselves to an unpopular president, whose national support is in freefall, and who’s even losing favor within the party’s base. Dems would love nothing more than to tie vulnerable incumbents to a president voters no longer like or trust. If they run away from the president and exert some independence, they run the risk of undercutting party morale, depressing turnout, and losing anyway.
Decisions, decisions…