Monday’s campaign round-up

May 12, 2008

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* A few more superdelegates fell off the fence over the last 48 hours or so. If my count is right (and I may have missed one or two), Barack Obama picked up four (Maine’s Tom Allen, Arizona’s Harry Mitchell, California’s Crystal Strait, and Virginia’s Joe Johnson), and Hillary Clinton has picked up one (Texas’ Ciro Rodriguez).

* Clinton officials acknowledged yesterday that the campaign is $20 million in debt.

* On a related note, Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe said yesterday that the senator is “willing” to make another personal loan to her campaign.

* Speaking of finances, chief Obama strategist David Axelrod noted yesterday that Obama might be willing to help Clinton retire some debt, but he’s not going to write her a check. “I don’t think even under any scenario … that we were going to transfer money from the Obama campaign to the Clinton campaign. We obviously need the resources we have. We have a great task ahead of us.” There was, Axelrod said, “a misunderstanding out there about that.”

* Clinton held a conference call on Saturday with her superdelegate supporters, urging them to hang in there. “I know this is not easy,” Clinton said. She added, “We will close ranks and I know we will be totally unified going forward.”

* Obama is going to lose by a whole lot tomorrow in West Virginia. A new Suffolk University poll has Clinton ahead by better than a two-to-one margin, 60% to 24%.

* Clinton appears nearly as strong in Kentucky, where a new Herald-Leader/WKYT Kentucky Poll shows her leading Obama, 58% to 31%.

* Based on the latest Rasmussen polls, it looks like Virginia and North Carolina are certainly going to be in play in November.

* The latest national poll from LAT/Bloomberg shows McCain trailing both Dems in general election match-ups (Obama leads by six, Clinton leads by nine), and McCain scored especially poor numbers on the economy.

* The winner of the MoveOn.org ad contest has been unveiled.

* John Edwards came pretty close to telling Clinton that the race is over.

* Clinton won the California primary in February, but a new SurveyUSA poll shows that if they had it to do over again, California Dems would back Obama, 49% to 43%.

* The pro-Clinton American Leadership Project decided not to air any advertising in advance of the West Virginia primary. Whether the group backed off because Clinton was going to win anyway or because the unions and major donors behind the project decided the race is over is unclear.

* Obama said McCain’s Keating Five scandal is relevant and fair game for the election.

* Might Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) be in trouble in North Carolina this year? It sure looks like it.

* Ron Paul fans still have plans to “stage an embarrassing public revolt against Sen. John McCain when Republicans gather for their national convention in St. Paul at the beginning of September.”

Go Ron Paul!

Personal anecdote, I have met a couple of Paul supporters who are now going for Obama. They don’t even like the Democrats, but they are so pissed at Bush that they want to punish any Republican running who does not disown Bush. McCain’s bear hug will be very useful when courting the Paul supporters.

  • I think one of the most important aspects of an Obama win in November (and I do think he will win) will be that he did it without pandering to the under-educated, resentful, bigoted voters the clintons are trying to stir up. How many Presidential elections have hinged on the those voters? I think the demographics are finally changing. Obama will win with a coalition of voters that covers a large and diverse group. For too long the fears, paranoia, bigotry and resentment of these people have been encouraged and massaged to get votes. And ironically, these people have been voting against their own interests for years. No matter who the Democrats nominated West Virginia and Kentucky would have voted Republican. Clinton wouldn’t carry either state in a general election.

    If anything, a very poor showing by Obama in these two states will reflect far more poorly on those voters than on the candidate.

  • “I don’t think even under any scenario … that we were going to transfer money from the Obama campaign to the Clinton campaign. We obviously need the resources we have.”

    Good point there. Why squander money on a failed campaign? Then again, that explains why Clinton continues to spend money on a futile effort — she owes donors her maximum effort. Which entails more fundraising, which increases her obligations to donors, which means she can’t quit, and on and on.

  • Maybe I am too much of a businessman to understand things but….

    Why would ANYONE advance money to the Clinton campaign from now on?

    There is so little chance of getting the cash that anyone who doesn’t get the cash upfront is basically donating to the Clinton campaign.

    If I owned a restaurant I would want the Clinton campaign to pay in advance before I would even let them into the place.

  • I haven’t seen any Clinton or Obama TV ads in WV. Lots of robocalls from Bill and Hillary – very innocuous. We need your help. This primary is very important, but nothing of any substance.

  • “Based on the latest Rasmussen polls, it looks like Virginia and North Carolina are certainly going to be in play in November.”

    Yah! Go VA Go!

  • “I don’t think even under any scenario … that we were going to transfer money from the Obama campaign to the Clinton campaign. We obviously need the resources we have. We have a great task ahead of us.”

    Well in addition to the fact that they may not want to give money to Hillary directly, there’s the small matter that it would be illegal. The most the Obama campaign can give the Clinton campaign is $2300, same as you or me.

    I keep seeing people (including apparently Obama’s own manager) debate whether he “should” pay off the Clinton debts, when in fact it’s totally academic, because he can’t. I wish people would point this out more clearly.

  • Paul was also asked directly which of the three candidates he preferred and he said Obama, although he wasn’t happy enough with his voting record to endorse him. Considering how stubborn Paul is that’s as good as Obama is going to get from him.

    I really like Obama’s chances this fall. Some of Paul’s supporters can be had, and I think some evangelicals might ditch the Republicans too if they go after Rev. Wright too harshly. Nothing like watching a massive big-money operation hammering a 70-year old retiree to make people cheer for the underdog. Newt Gingrich has already been warning them off and I think he’s got the right idea. I’m just not sure what they’ll use to attack Obama if they don’t use Wright.

    And then there’s the confirmation that McCain himself voted Democrat in 2000. If it’s good enough for him when he’s disgruntled with his party, then it’s good enough for the rest of the country.

  • * A few more superdelegates fell off the fence over the last 48 hours or so. If my count is right (and I may have missed one or two), Barack Obama picked up four (Maine’s Tom Allen, Arizona’s Harry Mitchell, California’s Crystal Strait, and Virginia’s Joe Johnson), and Hillary Clinton has picked up one (Texas’ Ciro Rodriguez).

    Ciro Rodriguez and Joe Johnson endorsed on Friday. Counting only from Saturday, when Harry Mitchell endorsed, we have Kristi Cumming, Carol Burke, Dave Regan, Harry Mitchell, Tom Allen and Crystal Strait for Obama, as well as Kevin Rodriguez switching from Clinton to Obama. During the same time period, Clinton got Arthur Powell.

    To echo others’ posts on the running totals of the last few days: Total since Saturday: Obama 7, Clinton 0 (Powell is canceled out by K. Rodriguez switching to Obama). Total since Friday: Obama 16, Clinton 1 (she got three but lost two previous Clinton endorsers to Obama).

    Clinton won the California primary in February, but a new SurveyUSA poll shows that if they had it to do over again, California Dems would back Obama, 49% to 43%.

    Serious buyer’s remorse in the Golden State. Clinton lost ground among women and men and major ground among Asian Americans, who had backed her by a wide majority but now solidly favor Obama. I expect Mary will chime in soon with spit-flecked screams about how disloyalty is a well-known cultural trait of Asian Americans.

  • Going with $175 million in the bank and a huge lead in support to $20 million in the hole and 2nd place takes a lot of effort and hard incompetent work.

  • One thing about Libertarians that we often forget is their strong non-interventionist attitude about international affairs. This is a point of correlation between them and many moderate and liberal Democrats. We may actually get a small boost from Ron Paul backers.

  • It is worth noting that Tom Allen and Bill Clinton were at Oxford as Rhodes Scholars together and became–and remained–friends. It must have been a difficult decision for Allen to endorse Obama. As a Maine Democrat, I respect him all the more for it.

  • Clinton won the California primary in February, but a new SurveyUSA poll shows that if they had it to do over again, California Dems would back Obama, 49% to 43%.

    Just like New Jersey, where the post-primary polling shows a similar preference for Obama now, even though Clinton won on Super Tuesday.

    Sheesh, not even the big states are buying her big-state-strategy argument.

  • SaintZak has good points – if ever there was a time democrats could win the White House without pandering to uneducated racist voters, now’s the time.

    Most of those people will either:

    *vote Obama in fall
    *stay home
    *vote 3rd parts

    Those that would vote mclame anyhow are clearly in the minority, especially after people focus on the clear and distinct differences between mclame and Obama.

    The choice is (A) vote for change (which Americans overwhelmingly support) or (B) enable a “3rd-term” for dur chimpfuhrer

    Now is the time to make a statements – the Democratic party does not need to pander to the lowest common denominator and the most ignorant voters.

    Can’t serve 2 masters – genuine progressives/liberals and foolish folks that consistently vote against their best interests.

  • It’s hard to even keep up with the supers for Obama. Dolly Strazar of Hawaii just announced for him.

    It is worth noting that Tom Allen and Bill Clinton were at Oxford as Rhodes Scholars together and became–and remained–friends. It must have been a difficult decision for Allen to endorse Obama.

    Those few, determinedly blindered Hillary supporters who cling stubbornly to the belief that Senator Clinton’s downfall has nothing to do with how the Clintons have run this campaign are having to pedal extra hard now. So many formerly diehard Clinton people are backing Obama, and many of them have said quite straightforwardly that they’re appalled by the Clintons’ conduct the past few months. Clinton cabinet members Bill Richardson, Federico Pena, Robert Reich (am I forgetting some Cabinet members?); friends like Tom Allen; even Joe Conason, who literally wrote the book on how the right wing unfairly trashed the Clintons but came out this weekend with a blistering indictment of Hillary’s campaign tactics.

  • Former Dan: “Going with $175 million in the bank and a huge lead in support to $20 million in the hole and 2nd place takes a lot of effort and hard incompetent work.”

    I blame the state of New Hampshire. If only voters hadn’t given a second wind to Clinton’s campaign, Obama could’ve sealed the nomination that the Iowa caucuses gave him on day one. Though I suppose I could blame Iowa for putting Clinton in third place when a first place finish would’ve ended the race on day one, also.

  • Speaking of running a crappy campaign – check this thread out!

    OH THIS IS RICH! Latest Clinton Ad Uses Newspaper Clipping on TROOPERGATE!

    Too funny – watch this (if it has not already been pulled from Clinton Website – I am sure someone will have a link to it somewhere else if its been pulled).

    Not only do they create a bogus newspaper article/headline that refers to TROOPERGATE, but in the back of that faked image, there is a statement that shillary’s gas tax holiday will do little to help people!

    Wheels coming off, folks…

  • …the lowest common denominator….” Just keep pushing that crap and see where you (and
    the rest of us) end up in November. Hope your elitism and the ego strokes it evidently give you is worth it.

  • @ #8 ResumeMan: You’re main idea is correct but they can actually only lend her $2000. The amount individuals can contribute was raised to $2300 but campaign to campaign donations stayed at $2000. The only thing Obama can do at this point is set up a special fund and ask his supporters to donate to her. Which will be a cold day in hell, IMHO.

  • I didn’t see any indication that the Clinton campaign had asked for help from the Obama campaign only some very condescending coverage relating to his alleged consideration of “magnanimously” bailing her out–which I’m sure the campaign was aware is not legally possible anyway.

  • Running a campaign as the “white candidate” in a state with some of the highest dropout-rates, unemployment, and lowest levels of education is certainly appealing to the “lowest common denominator”.

    I don’t have any problems when these folks elect fake-democrats and repugs/neocons that run their own communities and states in ways that undermine the ability of those same voters to raise families with dignity.

    But I do take exception when those same folks think they should dictate what the rest of us do – that somehow pandering to white voters (that happen to have some of the lowest levels of education among the white population in the US) are somehow the “core” that needs to be pandered to.

    It is not possible to serve BOTH progressive/liberals that have provided the meaningful support for this campaign and those that don’t actually support traditional democratic ideals because the candidate is not white enough for them.

  • Good effing riddance to Libby Dole! Another smarmy Stepford wife with padded shoulders. I’d just love to see NC step out of the Dark Ages in my lifetime. Maybe this will be the first step. True it’s backwater in some places (and Blackwater in others), but hey, at least it ain’t South Carolina!

    “I expect Mary will chime in soon with spit-flecked screams..”

    Maria I live for these daily rants and your perfect-pitch bitchslap backhand retorts. You go girl! I’m howling so loud my dogs are nervous!

  • Little Bear

    You still don’t get. People who have dropped out or are unemployed are not the scum of the earth or “the lease common denominator.” Your head is so far up….you can’t even see it. Is this the magical change we all have to look forward to in November–an oligarchy of the deserving (defined by themselves)? What has happened to the Democratic party? Who has it sold out to?

  • There used to be a time when the Democratic party cared about poor and the working poor and the lower middle class.

    Apparently, now they are all racist crackers whose opinions are not worth paying attention to.

    So the idea is they can vote for our candidate but they can’t have a voice in who that candidate is?

  • you are a concern troll – no one here will pay attention to you anyhow….

    But I will play your game 1 more time and then ignore you like everyone else will.

    Maybe in the south the Democratic party has a tradition of being racist and actually just a different version of the repugs – i.e. George Wallace

    Across America, people seek change and voting for inside candidates isn’t going to do it – especially when those elite insiders proclaim that they are the “white candidate” and somehow that means the will of the people should not count.

    Let WV and KY vote for whom they want – they are not kingmakers. Real democrats can win this election without them – they are not that important.

    People that are suffering socio/economically that are too racist to support a candidate with REAL working-class credentials are not going to swing this election.

    OK – I am done feeding trolls – don’t see anyone chiming in to support your lies anyhow.

  • The Huffington Post is reporting that Hillary is thinking of lending her campaign even MORE money.

    And here’s a fascinating take on why Hillary is appealing to fewer and fewer people.

    Hillary Clinton failed to master the female approach, former mentor says

  • There were a good number of Maine democrats who were refusing to donate to Tom Allen’s senate campaign until he pledged his super delegate vote. Just in my personal circle, I know of about $10K worth of donations that were “on hold” until he made up his mind.

    Maine went 60-40 for Obama. In Allen’s congressional district the spread was even wider.

  • The discussion around how liberals/Obama-ites/Democrats should approach “Appalachia” is starting to remind me of the debate over whether or not the Arab countries of the Middle East are “ready” for democracy.

    I don’t claim to know what the answer is in either case, but I’m pretty sure that neither the “to hell with ’em, they’re inferior” or the “we’d better pander to their prejudices” approaches are correct.

    I do think that in general it’s better to engage prejudices and try to dispel them with understanding and compassion, than to dismiss, ignore or indulge them.

    And it helps that our guy is, by all accounts, an unusually gifted listener who has the talent of making those who disagree with him feel like they’ve been heard and respected.

  • A very interesting take by the LA Times on one of the reasons why perhaps HRC is still staying in the race — to help Obama. I’m thinking she’s already accepted the VP spot.

  • I am going to predict that the race in WVa (and Kentucky) is going to be much closer than predicted. Hillary will win, but not with 40 point leads. If the people in these states were as ignorant as some people here think, they wouldn’t keep electing Democrats — and in many cases center-left Democrats.

    In fact, I’m going to predict that Obama will win both states in the fall. For reasons, see my extended comment in the debate thread. I happen to believe in Democracy. The people may go down false paths temporarily, but somehow they get it right eventually.

    Contempt for people ain’t democratic OR Democratic. It wasn’t the elites that voted for FDR or JFK or LBJ.

  • I never believe polls, people trick the media.Look at NC and Indiana.Obama has won, and Hillary should concede soon.I beleive Obama’s sperdelegate count is more. Every network has a different number..

  • * Obama is going to lose by a whole lot tomorrow in West Virginia. A new Suffolk University poll has Clinton ahead by better than a two-to-one margin, 60% to 24%.

    * Clinton appears nearly as strong in Kentucky, where a new Herald-Leader/WKYT Kentucky Poll shows her leading Obama, 58% to 31%.

    Given the constituency and voting history of these two sates, this is not surprising, and provide an anthropological microcosm of core Clinton supporters.

  • “So the idea is they can vote for our candidate but they can’t have a voice in who that candidate is?”

    Not anymore, unless they re-invent math…

    As a NC resident, I could not be more thrilled with the idea of us in play presidentially and getting rid of the useless, idiotic, Bush-clone Liddy Dole. I love the idea of Democrats pouring the money that they will have in spades into every state that has even a lavender tinge to it, forcing Republicans to spend money they don’t have on them. Doing that in say, Texas, could make me smile for weeks.

  • Prup,

    In fact, I’m going to predict that Obama will win both states in the fall.

    You taking bets on that? I think Obama will make WV closer than the MSM is currently predicting, but a Dem win in KY in the general? That’s not quite as unlikely as Utah going Dem in the general, but its close.

  • Bicmon @ #13, I have a feeling that a driving force behind Tom Allen’s decision was the thought of who has the greater chance of helping him win the senate race this fall. Hillary Clinton does not have coattails the way Obama does. If Obama– and, hopefully, an equally galvanizing VP– makes some campaign stops in Maine with Allen, and rallies the crowds to vote Democratic, it bodes well for Allen’s chances against the inexplicably popular Susan Collins.

  • Edo, I have about 50 duplicate mystery stories that I’ve been looking to get rid of. If you’ll put up 3 Phoebe Atwood Taylor books (you can get them at alibris, I’ll tell you the ones I need) against them, you are on.

    Utah, Idaho, North Dakota will go Republican. Maybe Arizona, though i’m not even sure of that. But there won’t be many more. McCain won’t get 100 electoral votes.

    (If another of my predictions comes true, that McCain will drop out — we’ll renegotiate the bet depending on who replaces him.)

  • On a related note, Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe said yesterday that the senator is “willing” to make another personal loan to her campaign.

    Sure they can. Burn through that $98 million they have left and I am sure Ron Burkle will set up another sweetheart deal for “Cracking Trader” Billy – maybe Hillary can do some more cattle futures. What did they do the past 8 years to go from zero in the bank to $100 million? I mean, did anyone ever see their books for sale in a for-real bookstore???

    Obama is going to lose by a whole lot tomorrow in West Virginia. A new Suffolk University poll has Clinton ahead by better than a two-to-one margin, 60% to 24%.

    * Clinton appears nearly as strong in Kentucky, where a new Herald-Leader/WKYT Kentucky Poll shows her leading Obama, 58% to 31%.

    Given that the hillbillies may vote Democratic in the primary but vote Republican in the general, who cares?

    Clinton won the California primary in February, but a new SurveyUSA poll shows that if they had it to do over again, California Dems would back Obama, 49% to 43%.

    Further proof we should have kept to the June primary, then we’d be the kingmaker. And it would be a lot easier to beat a whole bunch of rightwing bullshit that’s up as propositions (no on 98!!!) if all the Democrats who were enegized to vote in February would be voting now. All the “super Tuesday” crap and the rest of the moron stupidity demonstrated by the Dimocrats with their idiot primary setup was just more political hot air. Not one of those states that thought they’d be “king (or queen) makers” by voting on Super Tuesday did a damn thing that was good for them in the long run. Those who try to foretell the future by looking at the past demonstate they understand neither.

  • Tom:
    Those Republican ‘hillbillies’ in West Virginia last elected a Republican Senator to a full term in 1942. (There was one special election for a two-year term after a death.)
    The last time the hillbillies had a majority of Republicans in the House? 1948.
    Except for the current Capito, the last time they reelected a sitting Republican Congressman? 1967.
    Since 1969 the total years a Republican held the Governorship? 12 (And 8 of them were by Arch Moore, the last re-elected Republican Congressman.)

    Maybe they vote Republican for President because they don’t like being thought of as ‘hillbillies.’

    (Kentucky has been somewhat more Republican, but it hasn’t been automatic there. (They do tend to get the slimiest of Republicans, true.)

  • little bear #26, please tell me that wasn’t directed at Lance?
    you’re calling Lance a troll? really?

    Probably not a popularity contest you want to pick. Lance was making a strong contribution here as a consistent part of this community before you brought your one-note broken record post anywhere near here – at least under this handle.

    Come to think of it, Lance seemed to get under Swan’s skin, too. Hmmm. . .

    But if what you’re looking for is people “chiming in,” put me in the Lance column.

  • RE: Tom Allen, I live in Maine and I haven’t heard anything about Tom Allen going to either candidate. Last I heard, he was intentionally holding off til the last minute.

    Doesn’t matter anyway. It’s not over, and the supers can switch back and forth as many times as they want.

    Meanwhile, I was told by a Democratic Party leader that an Obama delegate from the Maine caucus switched to Hillary; and if this happens just a little more, Maine will switch to a Hillary state.

  • RE: Tom Allen, I live in Maine and I haven’t heard anything about Tom Allen going to either candidate. Last I heard, he was intentionally holding off til the last minute.

    “Last you heard” is out of date. Your failure to keep up with the news doesn’t negate reality. Trying getting out a little more, or at least do 30 seconds of homework before posting idiocy.

    Doesn’t matter anyway. It’s not over, and the supers can switch back and forth as many times as they want.

    They certainly can. They don’t seem to want to, though. Every switch has been from Clinton to Obama. There have been no switches the other way.

    Meanwhile, I was told by a Democratic Party leader that an Obama delegate from the Maine caucus switched to Hillary; and if this happens just a little more, Maine will switch to a Hillary state.

    And if your average daily temperature rises by 60-70 degrees, you’ll switch to a deep southern state. Let us know which one happens first.

  • The sexism that has arisen from this race is appalling! Why aren’t we asking why we’ve spent months listening to people accuse each other of using the ‘race card’ but little to no mention of the ‘gender card?”

    I thought this was a historical race for TWO reasons but the press and the DNC seem to care very little about the one! Why are we letting Hillary be called a bitch, a whore, and all these other incredibly sexist things? (for more check out the fascinating article entitled “Clinton Campaign Brought Sexism Out of Hiding” at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/clinton_campaign_brought_sexis.html) It includes a shocking list of the way Hillary has received blatant sexist attacks!

    Hillary!….I say go Independent if need be! Now that’s a “real change” from the “old-style Washington politics!” We’re behind you all the way!

    God Bless
    Gaypastor

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