Monday’s campaign round-up

May 26, 2008

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* Over the last 72 hours, there’s been quite a bit of delegate movement. Unless I missed some, Barack Obama has picked up seven since Friday at noon — Oregon’s Jenny Greenleaf, Georgia’s Stephen Leeds, Alaska’s Tony Knowles, Wyoming’s W. Patrick Goggles, and Brian Schatz, Kari Luna, and James Burns, all of whom are from Hawaii. Clinton picked up one, Verna Cleveland in Georgia.

* McClatchy: “A co-chair of Hillary Clinton’s National Hispanic Leadership Council has defected and pledged his support to Barack Obama, Clinton’s rival for the Democratic presidential nomination. He was joined by another California superdelegate. The defections came as a new poll showed that Obama would handily defeat John McCain in California in November — and do so by a larger margin than Clinton would.”

* We’re about a week away from the Montana primary, and in the first major poll of the state in a long while, Obama appears to have the edge over Clinton, leading 52% to 35% according to a Mason-Dixon poll.

* An LA Times poll released over the weekend shows Obama doing quite well in California, despite losing the state’s primary in February. He now leads McCain by seven (47% to 40%), while Clinton leads McCain by three (43% to 40%).

* A series of recent polls from SurveyUSA show Obama doing fairly well in some key battleground states. In Ohio, Obama leads McCain by nine; in Pennsylvania, Obama leads McCain by eight; in Virginia, Obama leads McCain by seven; and in New Mexico, the two are tied.

* Speaking of battleground states, a Rasmussen poll shows Obama pulling ahead of McCain in New Hampshire, 48% to 43%. In April, a similar poll showed McCain beating Obama by double digits.

* Though his campaign likes to pretend that the senator is personally heading the VP selection committee, John McCain has actually tapped Arthur Culvahouse, who was Reagan’s White House counsel from March 1987 to January 1989, to head the search.

* CNN: “Former President Jimmy Carter said Sunday that in a little more than a week, when the last Democratic primary voters weigh in, it will be time for Hillary Clinton to ‘give it up.'”

* A Rasmussen poll shows Clinton leading McCain in Kentucky in a general-election match-up, while Obama, not surprisingly, loses badly.

* If you missed Obama’s speech at Wesleyan yesterday, it was a real gem.

* And don’t look now, but Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) in North Carolina is actually vulnerable. In a new poll from a Republican firm, Dole leads state Sen. Kay Hagan (D) by just two points, 45% to 43%.

The defections came as a new poll showed that Obama would handily defeat John McCain in California in November — and do so by a larger margin than Clinton would.

Which proves the point I have been arguing for a long time: moving the California Primary to “Super Tuesday” was stupidstupidstupid. Most voters took a wild-ass guess and went with the one everyone had been telling them was “inevitable.” Now, if the California Presidential Primary was on June 3, Obama would beat Hillary at least 2:1, winning enough delegates to sew up the nomination.

  • Obama picking up delegates 7 to 1?

    Does this mean that shillary’s campaign platform on assassination is not popular?

    Who would have thunk….

    Just who was she working for when she picked up on hucklebee’s reference to pointing a gun?

  • Thanks for linking to Obama’s speech at Weslyan. I’d love to hear it, though, does anyone know of a link to him delivering the speech?

  • A Rasmussen poll shows Clinton leading McCain in Kentucky in a general-election match-up, while Obama, not surprisingly, loses badly.

    “Yeppers, Vern, Ah’ll tell yew this fer shure – Ah’ll even vote fer a white girl ‘fore I’d vote for a damn n – – ra.”

  • According to the McClatchy article, McCain would “get 38 percent of the Latino vote against Obama and 41 percent against Clinton.”

    My impression is that Hispanic voters have leaned more towards Clinton. Is the tide turning for Obama here?

    I expect Obama’s support in all demographics to increase between now and election day.

  • Okie from Muskogee (6): McCain would get 38 percent of the Latino vote…

    Do you suppose that would be because his comprehensive immigration stance or his seal the border first position?

  • Danp – more likely the 38% represents those that work for cindy as illegal aliens in their yard and as other types of servants.

  • “Though his campaign likes to pretend that the senator is personally heading the VP selection committee, John McCain has actually tapped Arthur Culvahouse, who was Reagan’s White House counsel from March 1987 to January 1989, to head the search.”

    How do I get this job? Selecting a VP has to be one of the world’s easiest yet most rewarding jobs (especially if you’re Dick Cheney).

  • Not sure what you mean by “delegate movement.” In the case of Alaska, Tony Knowles (former governor and US senate candidate) is not a superdelegate; rather, I assume you’re counting his assignment as a delegate at the state convention over the weekend. Alaska Dems gave Obama 14 of 18 delegates, counting supers, slightly more than the 75% he won in the Alaska caucus in February.

    More interesting was the reception Alaska Dems gave Hillary Clinton’s surrogate, literally laughing at the arguments mustered in her defense.

    http://community.adn.com/adn/node/123972

  • #13 I feel a bit sorry for Lynn Woolsey (Clinton surrogate). She’s usually on the right side of things (see Iraq).

    Mentioned in the same article was a claim by Woolsey that Clinton would win more electoral votes than McCain and that Obama would lose to McCain. I saw a clip on CNN last night of Bill C speaking in I forget where – S. Dakota? – also spouting that claim (hey, a Hillary talking point!). I’d like to see that map. Does anyone have a link?

  • Indeed, Hillary may want to be careful about ‘winning’ the big states (California). A few months ago, one of my clients (living in California) came to see me, and he was wearing an Obama campaign button.

    I asked him if he voted for Obama. He said unfortunately, he voted for Hillary, because he felt that she was the best candidate. He told me that he felt bad about his decision; made without the benefit of all the information.

    Currently he’s actually campaigning for Obama in California; kind’a like a getting out the vote thing.

    I bet there are a lot more people who have been changing their mind, after Hillary started using Republican talking points to attack Obama.

    I have to admit I’m one of them myself. I supported Hillary until about the end of February. It is unfortunate that she felt she needed to sling the ‘kitchen sink’ into Obama’s direction. If she would have thrown all her venom into the Republican’s direction, I would probably still be supporting her.

  • Obama wins the blue states and ist ahead in Iowa and Colorado, New Mexico is tied in the latest SurveyUSA. If he wins Ohio and Pennsylvania, he is only 4 votes short of the 270 and he would have to look for these votes in Indiana or Virginia.

    Besides winning the blue states, Clinton on the other hand wins Nevada, New Mexico, Arkansas, West Virginia, Kentucky, Florida, both Ohio and Pennsylvania, Missouri and North Carolina. Even without the 8 EC votes from Kentucky, she is ate 319 EC votes.
    She leads in New Hampshire by 10%, Obama by 5, LA Times and Rasmussen have them both at 49, but she leads McCain by 11, while Obama leads by 9.

    Like her or not, if the Democrats want to win the Election, they have to take her.

  • HILLARY CLINTON IS THE GREATEST CAMPAIGNER IN AMERICAN HISTORY !!!

    HILLARY CLINTON CAN BEST WIN IN NOVEMBER:

    IT’S ABOUT ELECTABILITY !!!

    It’s time for everyone to face the truth. Barack Obama has no real chance of winning the national election in November at this time. His crushing defeat in Pennsylvania, and loss in Indiana, West Virginia, and Kentucky makes that fact crystal clear. His best, and only real chance of winning in November is on a ticket with Hillary Clinton as her VP.

    Sen. Obama has zero chance of winning against the republican attack machine, and their unlimited money, and resources without Hillary Clinton. Zero chance.

    It is absolutely essential that the democrats take back the Whitehouse in November. America, and the American people are in a very desperate condition now. And the whole World has been doing all that they can to help keep us propped up.

    Hillary Clinton say’s that the heat, and decisions in the Whitehouse are much tougher than the ones on the campaign trail. But I think Sen. Obama faces a test of whether he has what it takes to be a commander and chief by facing the difficult facts, and the truth before him. And by doing what is best for the American people by dropping out of the race, and offering his whole hearted assistance to Hillary Clinton to help her take back the Whitehouse for the American people, and the World.

    Sen. Obama is a great speaker. And I am confident he can explain to the American people the need, and wisdom of such a personal sacrifice for them. It should be clear to everyone by now that Hillary Clinton is fighting her heart out for the American people. She has known for a long time that Sen. Obama can not win this November. You have to remember that the Clinton’s have won the Whitehouse twice before. They know what it takes.

    If Sen. Obama fails his test of commander and chief we can only hope that Hillary Clinton can continue her heroic fight for the American people. And that she prevails. She will need all the continual support and help we can give her. She may fight like a superhuman. But she is only human.

    Don’t be fooled by the pledged delegate, and math arguments. Neither candidate has the necessary pledged delegates. The entire delegates counts, and votes from Florida, and Michigan are not even being counted. Plus the democratic caucuses, and primarys have been heavily corrupted by fraud, and vote cheating. The only relevant question now is who can best WIN IN NOVEMBER and take back the Whitehouse for the American people. And the answer is HILLARY CLINTON. Everyone knows that now.

    Sincerely

    Jacksmith… Working Class 🙂

    p.s. Cynthia Ruccia – I’m with ya baby. All the way. “Clinton Supporters Count Too.”

  • HILLARY CLINTON IS THE GREATEST CAMPAIGNER IN AMERICAN HISTORY !!!

    Second greatest, judging by where she stands in the primary contest.

  • * If you missed Obama’s speech at Wesleyan yesterday, it was a real gem.

    You’ve become so mesmerized that a shiny wrapper on the street would be considered a “gem.”

    His speech was a yawner; bland, uninspired, little more than warmed-over rhetoric, delivered to college graduates as though they were kindergarteners.

    RE; Recent polls. I just love the way Obama followers are completely out of touch with reality and fail to note that Gallup shows him losing to McCain (in their daily tracking poll); Quinnipiac shows him losing TWO of three swing states – OH, FL – to McCain, while Clinton wins all three (OH, FL, PA) against McCain; Rasmussen polls that show him losing to McCain, and a Newsweek poll that is completely at odds with your Mary Sunshine version of reality.

    And I see no mention of Obama’s slick trick of circulating KO’s “comments” link to the press – even after the big O gave Clinton a “pass.” But then, this is the way his crew operates: stealth attacks and triangulation of the worst kind.

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