Monday’s political round-up

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* Disappointing GOP leaders who hoped he’d take on Katherine Harris in a primary, MSNBC blowhard Joe Scarborough announced over the weekend that he will not run for the Senate in Florida next year. “When party leaders approached me three weeks ago, I told them how difficult a campaign would be this year considering my personal and professional commitments,” Scarborough said. “Besides, I never cared for candidates who had to be coaxed into a political battle. Either you feel it in your gut or you don’t.” Scarborough said he will instead focus on a new contract with NBC.

* Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) may be a top Republican target next year, but a new statewide Rasmussen poll shows the incumbent leading two possible GOP challengers by wide margins. In the poll, Cantwell led Republican Party Chairman Chris Vance 57% to 32% and former Rep. Rick White 56% to 33%. Rasmussen did not ask respondents about Safeco chief executive Mike McGavick, who announced his intentions to run two weeks ago.

* In Arizona, a new poll from Wright Consulting Services suggests Sen. Jon Kyl (R) may have some trouble next year. Though several top-tier Dems have skipped the race, shopping mall developer and former state party chairman Jim Pederson appears to be well-positioned. The poll shows Kyl leading Pederson, 44% to 29%, which at first blush may look like bad news for the Dems, until one considers the details. First, this 15-point gap was 29 points in April. Second, Pederson’s statewide name recognition is still quite low. And third, for a two-term incumbent from a “red” state to have 44% support is not a good sign.

* Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D) has had his ups and downs of late, but he’s still gearing up for re-election next year. Though there were rumors he’d skip the race, Kulongoski formally announced that he’s seeking a second term. Among the Republicans who hope to take him on are Oregon Republican Chairman Kevin Mannix and Portland lawyer Ron Saxton. There is also some speculation that Kulongoski might face a primary challenge from Peter Sorenson (D), a former state legislator.

* NanoVeritas Group President Jack Uldrich, who had been running in next year’s open Senate race in Minnesota as a member of the state’s Independence Party, surprised everyone recently by dropping out of the race. Citing the difficulties of running while simultaneously caring for his children and pursuing his writing career, Uldrich said he “cannot afford to give the race 100 percent of my time, attention and commitment.” Minnesota’s Independence Party, which peaked in 1998 with the election of Jesse Ventura, is now scrambling to find a replacement.

Anyone got a guess as to who the GOP is going to try and go after next to challenge Harris? Alan Keyes anyone??

  • Why would Joe bother? All that work vs. a nice TV show about missing Aruba tourists. Not a tough choice.

  • Why the different takes on the polls from Washington and Arizona? The gaps are about the same.

  • Why the different takes on the polls from Washington and Arizona? The gaps are about the same.

    Excellent question, I thought about the same point while I was writing. There are three factors:

    1. The gap really is smaller in Arizona. There is a qualitative difference between a 15-point lead and a 25-point lead.

    2. The gaps are going in different directions. Kyl’s lead is 15 points and shrinking; Cantwell’s lead is 25 points and growing. Direction counts.

    and 3. The magical “50%” plateau. Incumbents, a year out from re-election, are supposed to enjoy at least 50% support against a potential rival, or there’s sign of trouble ahead. Cantwell is above the threshold and Kyl isn’t.

    Thus, different takes on the polls.

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