Monday’s political round-up

October 16, 2006

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* Virginia’s Senate race is practically tied according to a Washington Post poll released over the weekend. Sen. George Allen (R) now leads Democratic challenger Jim Webb, 49% to 47%. The bad news for Webb: his supporters, as a group, are far less enthusiastic about his candidacy than are Allen’s voters. The bad news for Allen: the percentage of voters who say they don’t like Allen has increased dramatically from a year ago. In related news, Webb topped Allen in third quarter fundraising, $3.5M to $2.6M.

* Missouri’s closely-watched Senate race, at this point, looks a lot like Virginia’s. A new Rasmussen poll shows incumbent Sen. James Talent (R) leading state Auditor Claire McCaskill (D), 43% to 42%. If undecided voters leaning toward a candidate are also counted, Talent leads 45% to 44%. The results show almost no change over the last several months.

* In New Jersey, the latest Rasmussen poll shows incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D) leading state Senator Tom Kean, Jr. (R), 42% to 39%. It’s Menendez’s biggest lead in a Rasmussen poll since July. When leaners are included in the total, Menendez leads 44% to 40%. A few weeks ago, the same pollster showed Kean up by one.

* Iowa has been home to the nation’s most competitive gubernatorial race, though a new poll shows the Dem with the largest lead either candidate has enjoyed to date. A Des Moines Register poll, released over the weekend, shows Iowa Secretary of State Chet Culver (D) ahead of Rep. Jim Nussle (R), 46% to 39%. While the vast majority of likely voters remain loyal to their party’s gubernatorial candidate, independents now prefer Culver over Nussle, 43% to 33%. In the mid-September Iowa Poll, Nussle had a 2-point edge over Culver among independents.

* In Minnesota’s gubernatorial race, the latest Minneapolis Star-Tribune poll shows state Attorney General Mike Hatch (D) leading Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), 46% to 37%. It’s Hatch’s biggest lead to date.

* And in Florida’s 16th district, which was Mark Foley’s district, a new poll from the South Florida Sun-Sentinel shows that over 70% of voters said the scandal will not affect their vote. Nevertheless, Democrat Tim Mahoney leads Republican Joe Negron, 48% to 41%. To take office, Negron will have to hope voters back Foley, with the understanding that Negron will take his place in the House.

The LA Times has a front-page story today about how the grass-roots of the culture-war right are going all out to save Rick Santorum. It’s pretty sickening (voter guides passed out with church bulletins, etc.) — and pretty scary.

  • Sadly, Dean’s state-based strategy may not be mature enough yet to make the difference in places like Va and Mo. Those truly appear to be “turnout” elections at this point; lets hope all of the other distractions make the GOP high-tech microtargeting machine short out. While Dean will likely take heat if we don’t pull out these midterms, the real fire should be directed at McAuliffe. Had the DNC started 8 or so years ago what Dean is doing now, we’d be sitting pretty in some of these close red-state pick-up opportunities.

  • Well, I’ve said it before. I wish Webb was coming on stronger.

    But one of the things I think we should remember is that this is the sixth year of a census cycle. Demographics shift, and all those “safe” republican’t seats may not be so safe anymore (especially since Boy George II let 4,000,000 more illegal aliens into the country and displaced so many people). It will be even worse in 2008, which means that Dean’s strategy should reap even greater benefits.

  • Allen is in major trouble. The latest Rasmussen report shows Webb up 5 points. Considering Webb has also raised more money, I’d say Allen is in desperation mode.

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