More evidence of a GOP crack-up

October 21, 2006

I try not to get too excited about this sort of thing. After all, there is still a lot of time, in political terms, before the midterms. And, whatever the polls are saying, nothing at all is certain for the Democrats.

And yet, this analysis from Newsweek suggests that the Rovian strategy of terrifying and turning out the base just may not work this time:

If the elections for Congress were held today, according to the new NEWSWEEK poll, 60 percent of white Evangelicals would support the Republican candidate in their district, compared to just 31 percent who would back the Democrat. To the uninitiated, that may sound like heartening news for Republicans in the autumn of their discontent. But if you’re a pundit, a pol, or a preacher, you know better. White Evangelicals are a cornerstone of the GOP’s base; in 2004, exit polls found Republicans carried white Evangelicals 3 to 1 over Democrats, winning 74 percent of their votes. In turn, Evangelicals carried the GOP to victory. But with a little more than two weeks before the crucial midterms, the Republican base may be cracking.

Alright, I’m excited. And full of Schadenfreude. As far as I’m concerned, the Republicans deserve to have part of their base turn against them. It serves them right.

I’m just reminded of Kos’s reality check from a while back: “While things look great for us right now, the election isn’t right now. And if Republicans can do anything, it’s close the deal. And quite frankly, we’re not a sure thing anywhere… We’ve got a long ways to go, and nothing in this cycle is in the bag. Nothing. So no slacking. No premature celebrating. No heightened expectations.”

Still.

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For more on all these polls, see Chris Bowers, who has his own reality-check post up today.

October 21, 2006 at 7:30 pm

Even more important than the percentage of evangelicals who support the republicans vs. the dems, imho, is the percentage of evangelicals who intend to vote at all. If even 5% of those evangelicals who voted Republican in 2004 stay home it could change the outlook considerably. Admittedly, steaks are on the grill as I type and I can’t be bothered to find numbers to back that statement up so if someone has a different read feel free to let me have it.

Pardon a little Machivellian thinking here — not Rovian, what I am suggesting is honest. There are quite a few districts in which the Republican is staunchly supported by the Religious Right, some of which are in states where the Senate is up for grabs. Even if the Democratic candidate has no chance, he or she should start hammering the Republican on two things. One is the Kuo book. “You claim to be a supporter of Dobson, etc…. But so did the President. What do you REALLY think?”

The other — I know this is repetitious but I continue to think it is potentially a GREAT issue — is whether the candidate supports Dobson’s and other Christian’s ‘child rearing advice.’ Use the sort of info in my article, and remember that one group that has been out in front on this isn “StopTheRod” which is, itself, composed of conservative Christian homeschoolers. “How, sir, can you accept support from someone who advocates… Do you accept this is an acceptable method of treating infants?”

Again, the sources are
http://saltosobrius.blogspot.com/2006/10/jim-benton-on-bible-based-baby-beating.html
and

http://www.stoptherod.net

This may not win the district, which might be irretrievable, but it might depress the vote enough to lessen the Republican Senatorial vote.

I know the feeling Michael. I’m thinking of taking up the practice of bedtime prayers again,

Dear baby Jesus
If I should die before I sleep
Please let the Dems their advantage keep.

Let’s win the battle of November 7 and I hope we’re ready for the battle of November 8. And please, Dems, no concessions speeches based on projections. Projections lie.

I’d say that if we can that we challenge every single losing district. It’ll keep them off balance and they won’t be able to allocate their resources as well.

I don’t give much of a care about the evangelicals – I really don’t buy or accept this whole Rovian thing that it’s only the base that matters. It’s the fact that the GOP has totally alienated the independents is what counts. The longer the GOP tries to appease it’s evangelical base, the longer the independents will be alienated.

Dale, I love your comments here. Don’t forget the grown-up Jesus. Y’know, the radical one. I was going to quote Homer here, but I can’t remember the whole thing. He drove a blue car?
Minnesota is going even bluer. This is not spam, I have nothing to do with
This site other than reading it- new and improved.

“If I should die before I sleep
Please let the Dems their advantage keep.” — Dale, @3

In the cause of meter, I’d suggest ‘vantage, instead of advantage.

And if I die before I wake,
Please let Dems win; the world’s at stake

I am less worried about the voters than the voting machines. In California, every voter who still goes to the polls vs: absentee can request and receive a paper ballot. If more states follow this, voters can boycott the machines.
I fear the machines will twist the results as they did in 2004. I hope enough people are awake and pay close attention this time.
The prospect of the GOP keeping power is too terrible to contemplate. Our entire way of life is in grave danger.

Oh Ye of Little Faith do not become consumed with doubt..Do not allow the little voice of pessimism in you’re ear to drown out the voice of reason and logic… The voice that whispers to you and all of the faithfull and says that “the day of reckoning is at hand” the voice that speaks of salvation and of the sweet Rapture that is to come..The voice that rises above all others like the dawn of a new day and And speaks the gospel of the Holiest of days which is TUES. Nov.7th. BABY!!!!! Relax stop stressing with the notion that Rove has some sort of plan that will somehow turn the GOP into the comeback party…Rove has no more tricks besides Rovian tricks only work if the environment allows them to do so and lets face it the environment is not such..The only tricks that Rove and most of the White house staff are working on right now is the ones they are discussing with their liberal lawyer firms….Have a Coke (Diet) and a smile and above all else be confident…We are counting on it…

If one considers the voter turnout in the 2004 presidential election, any significant defection on the part of the GOP base…whether that be by voting Democratic or just sitting out the election could lead to a huge Democratic victory. Keep in mind that back in 2004; early returns had Democrats convinced they were heading to victory. While the final results demonstrated that Democrats had succeeded in significantly boosting their voter turnout, the results also confirmed that the GOP had been able to turn out an even larger voter constituency…largely based upon the evangelical vote.

As we approach the November midterm, it looks like Democrats are at least as motivated as they were in 2004 and likely even more anxious to get out and vote to defeat the GOP. Any drop off in Republican turnout could prove disastrous if current Democratic voter enthusiasm holds. As I’ve thought back to the 2004 election, I recall one particular view that was expressed before the vote…and that was the theory that it would seem likely that if those who had voted for Al Gore also voted for the Democratic candidate (John Kerry) and only a few GOP voters defected, then it would seem that the Democrats might well defeat George Bush. I think it was a good theory but it failed to account for the ability of the GOP to turn out millions of new evangelical voters…enough so to overcome the theory as well as Democratic enthusiasm to defeat the Republican Party.

If one assumes that Democratic enthusiasm will significantly turn out more voters and if current polling turns out to be an accurate assessment as to the dwindling GOP base, independent voter support for the Democrats, and an apparent drop off of evangelical support as well as concerns that many of them could sit out the election altogether, then this could prove to be the perfect storm for the Democrats.