The widely-respected Pew Research Center released a very interesting survey yesterday, reinforcing what many of us have been saying for months: the nominating process is helping the Dems, not hurting them.
So far, the presidential primary campaign has been very good for the Democratic Party. Public interest in the race has been relatively high. Nearly half of Americans (45%) have a positive overall impression of the Democratic field, up from 31% just a month ago. And while a slim majority of the public continues to believe that President Bush will win the general election, there also has been a sharp rise in the percentage who feel a Democratic candidate will prevail in November from 21% in January to 36% in the current survey.
Democrats themselves have become much more engaged, and confident, since the start of their party’s primary campaign, but the shift has been notable among independents as well. In January, 47% of Democrats and just 27% of independents gave positive ratings to the Party’s field. Currently, 61% of Democrats and 44% of independents express a positive opinion of the Democratic candidates. And significantly more Democrats and independents predict Democratic victory than did so in January.
This could have certainly gone the other way. Had the nominating process turned ugly, highlighting deep divisions within the party and devolving into nasty, personal attacks, the public would have starting tuning out and discounting the Dem message. Instead, most of these guys have run focused, issue-driven campaigns that keep the emphasis on Bush’s failures and our desire to fix his mistakes. The public is watching — and they like what they see.
And while Pew study had encouraging news for Dems, it had very discouraging news for Bush. For the first time his inauguration, Bush’s approval rating has fallen below 50% in a Pew poll. It now stands at 48%.
Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew poll, told the AP, “I’m a little surprised by how negative people are toward Bush personally.” He added that the negative views of Bush might be linked to the high number of people who are paying attention to the failed hunt for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Three-fourths of Americans say they are following the issue very or fairly closely.
But the really bad news for the White House came when the poll asked respondents to choose one word to describe Bush. The most frequent response: “Liar.”
When the pollsters asked people for a one-word description of Bush, equal shares gave positive and negative responses, a stark shift from last May, when positive answers outnumbered negative ones 2-to-1. The most frequently used negative word this time was “liar,” which never came up last May. The most frequently used positive description this time was “honest,” the same as last May.
As Ryan Lizza noted, respondents in previous Pew surveys have had far different responses to this question. In May, for example, a majority (52%) used positive words like “honest,” “leader,” and “good.” Now, that that number has fallen to 36%, which is the same percentage of registered voters whose most frequent words to describe Bush — in addition to “liar” — are now “arrogant,” “stupid,” “incompetent,” “dishonest,” “idiot,” and “ass.”
Americans have disagreed with Bush on a variety of major issues and priorities since the 2000 election, but he was able to persevere (aside from coming in second in the presidential election) because people felt like they could trust him. If that faith fades, and Bush can’t fall back on his popular issue positions, he’s in big trouble.
As of Kerry, there’s plenty of good news, but just a hint of bad news. Perhaps most importantly, people seem to think highly of the likely Dem nominee. Two-thirds (67%) of those familiar enough with Kerry to rate him have a favorable view of him. Asked for a one-word description of Kerry, 78% offered a response — and there were twice as many positive answers as negative.
The only potential negative, at least in terms of the general election, is that Kerry’s support is less of an endorsement of his candidacy than a reflection of opposition to Bush. Fully twice as many Kerry supporters characterize their choice as a vote against Bush rather than a vote for Kerry (30% vs. 15%). That’s not bad — indeed, it’s routine to view the election as a referendum on the incumbent — but it suggests that Kerry’s support lacks a certain depth.
There’s still plenty of time to fix that, though. At this point, the voters are just getting to know him. All in all, I’d say the current landscape is right where we want it.