As I mentioned earlier this week, the Senate is precariously divided going into the 2004 races. Before Dems can think about regaining the majority of the chamber, they first have to worry about defending incumbent senators that the GOP is targeting for defeat.
I think it’s fair to say that the three most vulnerable incumbent Democratic Senators are Sens. Patty Murray in Washington, Harry Reid in Nevada, and Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas. If the Dems have any hope of getting to 51, all three have to win re-election.
I’m pleased to say that at least so far, all three are looking pretty good.
As I mentioned the other day, Reid dodged a bullet by having Rep. Jim Gibbons, the White House’s hand-picked candidate, announce that he would not run for the Senate, leaving no major GOP challengers for Reid.
In Washington, Bush and Karl Rove successfully convinced Rep. George Nethercutt to take on Murray, but recent polls show that the incumbent enjoys a sizeable advantage.
And in Arkansas, Lincoln received excellent news yesterday when Gov. Mike Huckabee said he would not run for the Senate next year.
Huckabee’s announcement follows word from former Arkansas Rep. Asa Hutchinson that he, too, would not challenge Lincoln. Better yet, former Sen. Tim Hutchinson and Arkansas Lt Gov. Winthrop Paul Rockefeller also said they would not launch Senate bids.
Without a major GOP opponent, I’d say Lincoln’s chances for a second term are pretty good. The White House will have to scramble to find a viable challenger in a state important to Bush’s re-election chances, but I don’t think there’s a strong enough candidate out there to beat Lincoln, now that all the heavy hitters have taken themselves out of consideration.
Now all we have to worry about are Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, South Dakota, North Dakota, Illinois, Alaska, and probably North Carolina. Piece of cake, right?