Speaking of polls, the two most important battleground states in the Union — Florida and Ohio — offered more encouraging news for John Kerry over the weekend.
First up, Florida (27 electoral votes), where the ever-important Cuban-American vote is moving exactly as I had hoped: away from Bush.
Bush’s support among Cuban-Americans in south Florida — about 80 percent of whom backed him in 2000 — shows signs of eroding. A March Florida International University poll, for instance, showed that only 56 percent of the state’s Cuban-Americans planned to vote for Bush, with 25 percent undecided. While the vast majority will almost certainly back Bush in November, even a shift of 5 percent could tip the balance if Florida is a close race.
That last point is key. Kerry doesn’t need to win the Cuban vote in South Florida; he just needs it to split a little better in his direction. Bush has already launched his election-year plan to pander excessively, but as I’ve noted on occasion, it may backfire. If this poll is any indication, it’s already started.
Clinton won 39% of the Cuban-American vote in 1996, but that support fell to just 18% for Gore. If Kerry can get even close to Clinton’s level, he wins Florida. And if he wins the Sunshine State, the race won’t be close.
Things are equally discouraging for Bush in Ohio (20 electoral votes).
Fresh off an embarrassing debacle with the Timken Company, Bush’s support in Central Ohio, which was critical to his narrow victory in the state four years ago, is falling fast.
Central Ohio is turning against both the war in Iraq and President Bush.
[…]
In a September poll of the Columbus area, 54 percent said they favored staying the course in Iraq even with hundreds more American casualties. Now only 38 percent express that sentiment. During the same period, the percentage saying the war is worth the cost in U.S. lives fell from 51 to 38.
Approval of Bush’s handling of Iraq has dropped 11 percentage points to 38 percent. His overall approval rating has sunk 6 points to 44 percent since September — but is 17 points below that of April 2003, shortly after the war started.
[…]
Bush gets less support for his dealing with Iraq — 38 percent — than his handling of the economy — 41 percent.
Looking at the electoral map, Bush will desperately need Ohio and Florida if he has any chance at all. At this point, neither are looking good for the incumbent.