More troops exist — because Kagan and Kristol say so

The Weekly Standard’s Robert Kagan and William Kristol wrote a 2,600-word paean to the war in Iraq this week, offering the Bush administration hearty advice on how to proceed during his last two years in office. As they see it, the only way to avoid “heading inexorably toward disaster” is to send more U.S. troops. Lots of them.

Instead of looking for a graceful and face-saving way to lose in Iraq, the president could finally demand of his civilian and military advisers a strategy to succeed. Such a strategy would do what previous strategies have not done: provide the number of American forces necessary to achieve even minimal political objectives in Iraq. Such an effort would begin by increasing American force levels in Iraq by at least 50,000.

The objective of this increased force would be to do what has not been done since the beginning of the war: to clear and hold Baghdad, without shifting troops from other contested areas of Iraq. As our colleague, military expert Frederick Kagan, has argued–and sources inside the U.S. military have confirmed–an additional 50,000 troops could secure the Iraqi capital. […]

Those who claim that it is impossible to send 50,000 more troops to Iraq, because the troops don’t exist, are wrong. The troops do exist.

There is no follow-up on this point. This excerpt isn’t wrenched from context; Kagan and Kristol simply assert, as fact, that there are 50,000 troops available right now, who can be deployed to the war in Iraq. They are right and those who say the troops aren’t available are wrong.

Why? Because they’re Robert Kagan and William Kristol — and they say so.

It’s an usually lazy form of making an argument. I’ve grown rather accustomed to Bush administration officials backing up their arguments with bogus and misleading evidence, but Kagan and Kristol cut out the middle-man — they’ve decided to forgo evidence altogether. It’s reasoning through assertion.

I’m reminded of a new rule Kevin Drum came up with a couple of weeks ago.

I think the punditocracy needs a new rule: you’re not allowed to pontificate about the importance of winning in Iraq unless you’re also willing to make concrete suggestions about how to make that happen. More troops? Tell us how many and where they’re going to come from. Help from Syria and Iran? Tell us what you think they can offer us and what you’d be willing to put on the table to get their help. Partition? Convince us that the Iraqis would be willing to peacefully accept this. Etc.

If you’re not willing to do any of this, then write about something else.

Good idea. I get the sense from reading the Kagan-Kristol piece that they wanted a magnum opus that would bolster the neocons in the administration and renew debate among lawmakers about sending more troops (McCain’s preferred solution). While writing, they seem to have stumbled into a paragraph about our overstretched forces, so they simply dismissed the point. “The troops do exist.” And that was that. They didn’t even go to the bother of quoting some anonymous Pentagon ally who would tell them what they wanted to hear. It’s probably because Defense Department officials who agree with them are as hard to find as the 50,000 troops themselves.

I’ve seen some note, in response to the Weekly Standard piece, that the vast majority of Americans are opposed to increasing U.S. troop levels in Iraq. That’s not inconsequential, but it’s almost a tangent. If there aren’t 50,000 troops available, public support or the lack thereof is a moot point.

Kevin’s rule rings true: if Kagan and Brooks (and McCain, and Lieberman…) want more troops, they should explain where these elusive soldiers are hiding. Otherwise, it’s just empty rhetoric.

Sweet Zombie Jeebus.

When I scanned thru the love poem to the NeoCons before stuffing it back on the shelf at the local bookstore, An End to Evil, I go the distinct impression that both Perle and Frum spent an inordinate amount of time playing Risk and based their ideas of war on the game.

Now I know who they played Risk with.

As strange as it seems, one can’t dredge up 50000 infantrymen/women at the drop of a hat or turn sailors/airmen into soldiers changopresto. If you want good infantrymen, it takes a while to train them (2 years at least) and you need good infantrymen in Iraq. Ah, if only the neocons posterboy Rummy (RIH) hadn’t been so goshdarn stubborn and actually increased the size of the US Army… Can’t win for thinking, Bill and Bob.

My only suggestion is that both Kagan and Kristol and all their healthy offspring sign up and give us a shining example of how real men fight.

  • I have no doubt they exist, but then we are going have to pull them out of key locations like say South Korea, Africa, Russia, the US and every other spot they are needed to ensure peace and protection. Disband every military installation in the world, including the US bases to go fight in Bagdad, fricken great plan. After all, aren’t we fighting them over there so we don’t have to fight them here or anywhere else ?

    We need a special like “This Week in God”, called “This Week on the Crack Pipe”.

  • Drum is absolutely correct. Unless wanting to win leads to a strategy to win, it’s as meaningless as sending imaginary troops. Perhaps these folks have been creating new realities for so long that they just can’t stop. As stubborn as W is, I can’t help thinking that things have gotten so bad in Iraq that he’d have adopted a winning strategy sometime in the past year if there was one.

    I guess we could clone troops and wait 18 years,, but… nah.

  • 1. Germany
    2. Korea

    see, simple? of course, what Nth Korea might do when you withdraw the army, well … that doesn’t matter, with Bush’s diplomacy team handling them, right? And the heavy armour in Germany is going to do what, exactly, in Iraq? Welllll, they’ll be more targets anyway.

  • The conservatives obviously are not on the same page about there being no military solution in Iraq. And the country is very divided on there being any hope of any solution in Iraq. When you enter a hopeless situation, trying to pry hope out of it leaves you with less hope no matter how you cut it. The more we screw around with this tremendous opportunity cost, the worst shape we leave our own country. And this ain’t been the land of shits and grins lately. People, in the long run, Iraq will be a comma when we reach the end of the sentence, period.

  • Lou makes a good point about the ocnservatives not being on the same page. But I want to know why the MSM is not blasting this in darn near every headline, like they did pre-election regarding the Dems.

  • Didn’t some right-wing blogger also assert that we have the troops somewhere, and then used 1994 stats to back that up, somewhere on this board?

    Oh yeah …

    It stuns me how these people think you can just move around tens of thousands of troops from other areas — or use military personnel who aren’t trained in the type of urban combat/police mission that such a move would require — without any adverse consequences.

    Hell, it’s not so much a game of Risk, as it is Axis and Allies with the “War on Terror” expansion pack (board game dorks will get the reference).

  • They are twisting the words of Rummy,
    We don’t have to fight the war we have, if we can pretend to fight the war we wish for.

  • I’m thinking our strategy should be to acknowledge that Bush is still unfortunately the Commander in Chief, and put the pressure on him to articulate our goals for Iraq, and how he plans to achieve those goals. We can’t make a plan about what to do, until we have some idea of what we’re trying to do. This puts Bush in the position of having to continue to defend staying the course, allowing us to pull away Republicans anxious to divorce themselves from the Bush era by 1998. If Bush demands we offer a plan, he looks weak. If he offers a plan for victory, he’ll look clueless.

    Our overrideing goal should be to put the heat on until Bush has to withdraw, or his entire party ambandons him. We don’t want the next President to be saddled by this mess. Bush has to own it, but he’s a coward who wants to slink out of office and ditch it on the next guy, without making any painful decisions to salvage any piece of his blunder while he’s in charge. It’s our jobs to make him make the hard choices to deal with his mess. Allowing our soldiers to die and our coffins to drain so Bush can save face is not an option.

    We don’t want to come up with a strategy for a situation that’s guaranteed to fail. We want Bushbots to admit it’s lost. Everything we do in regards to Iraq should be aimed at those goals.

  • Well, it appears that the Pentagon has figured out where to get more ground troops. (Via Think Progress )

    Top Air Force leadership in Washington is increasingly concerned about the Army using Air Force personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan for tasks traditionally performed by the infantry.” The “airmen’s non-traditional duties include operations such as convoys, interrogations and military policing.”

  • It stuns me how these people think you can just move around tens of thousands of troops from other areas — or use military personnel who aren’t trained in the type of urban combat/police mission that such a move would require — without any adverse consequences.

    Gosh gee willikers Unholy Mo, ya mean they can’t just hop in the transporter room, zap over to Iraq, win the day and go back before the other guys notice they’re gone? Drat. And I suspect Lance (unless I mean Dale?), once he stops laughing at the Dynamic Duo will tell us about the difficulty of moving all of the stuff the soldiers would need to be anything but bullet catchers.

    I suspect K & K don’t understand “Adverse Consequences.” They certainly didn’t suspect there would be any with barging into a country, deposing a leader and then waiting for the flowers and candy to fly. Arse clowns.

  • Kristol doesn’t “get” this war. There was a time of opportunity when a military solution, with the right amount of troops, could have changed the course of the conflict and won over the Iraqis. That time has come and gone. This conflict is no longer about securing territory with troops, it is about winning over the minds of the Iraqi people. The only thing more troops can fill Iraqi heads with is lead and that will not win this conflict for us.

    Kristol wants to “win” this war to save his own ego, and none of our soldiers should have to die for that. Face it Bill, you, and W, lost this war with your own hubris and incompetence. We should not be looking for a face-saving exit from Iraq, but a life saving halt to a millenial old sectarian rift. The view of the Islamic world toward the United States and the rest of the West hinges upon it.

  • “Hell, it’s not so much a game of Risk, as it is Axis and Allies with the “War on Terror” expansion pack (board game dorks will get the reference). ”

    Ha! I am a wargamer dork and wanted to join the university club (aka virgins anon) but I didn’t not not because I didn’t want to be a dork ( I have been a card carrying member since 80.)

    The problem was a lot of the members of the club. They loved the attrition grind’em down fights got off recreating the meat grinders of Stalingrad Verdun and a thousand other places where the blood flowed freely. Me? I hate losing units and avoided those meat grinders like the plague. I still prefer maneuver over attrition (if I can.) It’s like my fellow just loved running armies without little or understanding of the consequences of their decisions. I guess the casual disregard of life (even if represented by cardboard counters) pissed me off and I left.

  • Before concocting yet another alleged plan to win the war in Iraq, the Bushies should be nade to explain why there is a war in Iraq in the first place. With all the misery and carnage, we’ve about reached the point were the only reasonable justification for the invasion left — the removal of Saddam — is looking shaky.

  • Let’s do the math…

    There are somewhere around 50 million registered Republicans. They can’t all be incapable of serving in “the war to save civilization”. If only 1% of them would just sign up for the war their leaders insist is SO important, we’d have TEN TIMES the number of new recruits Kagan and Kristol want to send to Iraq.

    But they don’t sign up. Why? Maybe because they don’t believe the crackheads either?

    Any media outlet that gives the crackheads airtime is contributing to the delinquency of a nation.

  • Corrected for bad writing:

    The problem was a lot of the members of the club. They loved the attrition grind’em down fights AND got off recreating the meat grinders of Stalingrad, Verdun and a thousand other places where the blood flowed freely. Me? I hate losing units and avoided those meat grinders like the plague. I still prefer maneuver over attrition (if I can.) It’s like my fellow GAMERS just loved running armies without little or understanding of the consequences of their decisions. I guess the casual disregard of life (even if represented by cardboard counters) pissed me off and I left.

  • I agree with memekiller (#9). As long as Bush remains “the decider” let him stew in his own juices. We shouldn’t want any part of what happens from now till the bastards have left the scene. We can cut off funds for the war after the first of the year. Beyond that, keep it “Bush‘s Iraq Quagmire” and Bush‘s deficit and Bush‘s Katrina and Bush‘s tax cuts and so on.

  • The most authoritative source on US troop deployment is from this study conducted by Dr. Tim Kane in May 2006. This document, and the accompanying spreadsheet detailing deployments from 1950 through 2005 by continent and country, provides the clearest picture of where US troops are currently stationed.

    http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/cda06-02.cfm

    http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/troopsdb.cfm

    Yes, there are thousands of troops committed to various stations worldwide — and those commitments are based on treaties for mutual protection, national security and other international agreements. Troops cannot be pulled automatically. However, reallocating US troops from one location to another is not the point. Allocating 50,000 combat ready, urban battle trained infantry (not armor or artillery) would require at least a ratio of 1:5 of 1:7 in additional support material (for every one infantryman an addition five to seven support troops are needed). This is the average ratio; existing support materiel command in-place could absorb most of the workload to support the newly repositioned troops. But not all…

    Why we bother to listen to uninformed pundits who provide misleading, if not outright wrong, information will continue to add confusion to the discussion. We must force, through the media or the newly elected Congress, these so-called experts to produce fact-based recommendations.

  • The problem was a lot of the members of the club. They loved the attrition grind’em down fights AND got off recreating the meat grinders of Stalingrad, Verdun and a thousand other places where the blood flowed freely. Me? I hate losing units and avoided those meat grinders like the plague. I still prefer maneuver over attrition (if I can.)
    –Former Dan

    Sounds like you and I played the same way. Of course, I didn’t accept my dorkdom until later in life (I dated too many sorority girls). 🙂

    Axis and Allies is one of my favorite games of all time — although what I do depends on whom I’m playing. Sometimes, a cardboard-plastic bloodbath can be fun (and necessary after several beers).

    I highly recommend the original Risk video game for the PlayStation — it has a variation with different maps, the ability to get generals, forts and powerups, and uses tactic cards rather than dice rolls. The Mrs. and I have played it literally hundreds of times.

    Okay … I’ll stop now. 🙂

  • Aw, sheesh Edith; gimme a beer, willya?

    Sorry, but I couldn’t help it. Once again, an unexpected dose of “The K&K Comedy Hour” has me spouting Archie-Bunker-isms. But I’ve an idea as to where this brace of bullsh** bunnies are getting their body-counts.

    They’re counting the troops who are on the home-half of their rotations.

    Bear with me for a minute or two. We already know that the time-commitment “in-theater” for troops already in Iraq can be extended, and we also know that there is a sizeable number of troop-strength at home right now who have just about used up their home-time. So—sending the Army back into Iraq, while retaining the current Marine force in Iraq, would beef the IEF up by at least 50K.

    But there’s a really big catch to this. If the US over-commits its reserve, and keeps filling casualty-gaps with more bodies that are supposed to be home on leave, the available force for commitment will eventually reach zero-balance.

    Take the current force in Iraq. Throw another 50,000 into the mix. Then start depleting what little reserve is left to compensate for KIA, MIA, wounded, etc. This last group—the “gap-fillers” might add up to, say, 1500 per month, given that more troops to shoot at, throw grenades at, fire mortars at, toss IEDs at, and so on equates to more casualties. That’s another 38,000 troops by January 2009 (killed, wounded, missing, etc.).

    So we’re at 88,000 troops above the current force-commitment in the Iraqi theater of operations. Now contemplate the 40-to-45,000 who will have their commitments expire—again, by January 2009. If the current force-level in Iraq is 150,000, and you add the K-Boys’ 50,000, the 38,000 KWM number, and the 40,000 who retire their volunteer commitments—you have:

    278,000.

    That number gets dangerously close to the entire available compliment of the volunteer force. I’m not counting Navy until someone tells me how you get a missile frigate up the Euphrates to Baghdad. I’m not counting the Air Force until someone tells me how you park a fighter-group, and its great big runway, inside the Green Zone (which would be the only safe place to park a great big bunch of airplanes that have bright-n-bold “U.S.” painted all over their freaking fuselages.

    So sure—let’s do what these two dummies want—and we’ll have no ground-force reserves left to rotate into Iraq. Just in time for Bush to leave office, and his successor (maybe a Democrat?) has to crank up a draft, just to save the army’s butt from total force depletion.

    Ya think?

  • While we’re about the business of sending 50000 more troops to Iraq, why don’t we also provide ponies for the children of all those who have to serve? If we can come up with this number of troops, surely there are enough ponies to go around, too!

  • Troops are out there this I know,
    Cos Kris & Kagan tell me so,
    Perhaps their hiding ‘neath our bed,
    Or crouching down inside the shed.
    Yes, troops are out there,
    Yes, troops are out there,
    Yes, troops are out there,
    Kool-aid drinkers tell me so!

  • The concept of war as a game is precisely the neo con chicken hawk mentality when our flesh and blood youth are sacrificed as if they were plastic markers.on a reckless roll of the dice to take over another continent.

  • “Hell, it’s not so much a game of Risk, as it is Axis and Allies with the “War on Terror” expansion pack (board game dorks will get the reference). ” Unholy Moses

    That’s Board Game Geeks to you, buddy.

    “And I suspect Lance (unless I mean Dale?), once he stops laughing at the Dynamic Duo will tell us about the difficulty of moving all of the stuff the soldiers would need to be anything but bullet catchers.” – TAIO

    Well, I didn’t laugh. It’s true there are loads of American soldiers just lying around America who we could send back there. I say back there because they are lying around recuperating from Iraq.

    “They’re counting the troops who are on the home-half of their rotations.” – Steve

    Exactly!

    The point isn’t the soldiers. The point, as TAIO points out, is the STUFF! The United States Army literally does not have the vehicles and weapons to give to fifty more combat battalions for Iraq.

    Try to make this point with the next wingnut you encounter. When troops arrive in Iraq they take control of the weapons and vehicles of the unit they are replacing and when they leave Iraq they leave behind the weapons and vehicles for the next unit.

    There is no more STUFF for the soldiers to use.

    Which is why the Army Chief of Staff, General Shoemaker, wants $25,000,000,000 for replacement of all the STUFF that is falling apart in Iraq. And the Republican’t Congress is only giving him $7,000,000,000.

    “Kristol wants to “win” this war to save his own ego, and none of our soldiers should have to die for that.” – Petorado

    Amen Brother!

  • Come on Steve. Kristol and Kagan know, and so should you, that three matching Risk cards would get us an extra 50,000 troops.

    You owe everyone an apology.

  • Come on Steve. Kristol and Kagan know, and so should you, that three matching Risk cards would get us an extra 50,000 troops.

    Actually, since we don’t really own the territory on the card, it’d only be like 10,000 …

    😉

  • Maybe the real trick is to argue for reinstituting the draft, an agenda that they were afraid to pursue with a right-wing congress because of the political consequences. Perhaps their strategy is to now yammer about more troops, claim that conscription was in some planning stage, and then blame Democrats for failing to follow through and “support the troops” and thus, make the Democrats responsible for failure in Iraq. It might explain McCain’s sudden embrace of the “plan” as well as bozos like Kristol.

  • I see McCain’s upcoming Presidential effort as behind this. This is the line that McCain is spouting, because when it comes down to it, when ’08 rolls around, he’s gotta be able to blame the loss on someone.

    Libs will take the fall.

  • Bzzzt. I gues it takes a female to be practical– you guys are sooo into games.

    *Of course*, we can field 50 thou extra to send to Iraq — and much more — if we do some basic reshufling. Heck, we wouldn’t even have to send women, unless they insisted. Here’s the plan, and it’s even leaner than the one offered by Rummy:

    1) Call back home *all* the troops currently deployed in Iraq (and Afghanistan too, for good measure)
    2) Raise the recruiting age from 42 to 65 (or even 70; we wouldn’t want to miss participants such as Kristol) — nobody says they have to be *fit*; we just need warm bodies on the ground.
    3) Everyone in the 18-65 age range, *who’d voted Republican in the ’06 election cycle*, gets shipping preference; there’s more than one way to “volunteer”, as I know very well from 23 years spent in a country of “compulsory volunteerism”.
    4) Absolutely no need to waste months training them; they won’t be there long enough to justify the expense, since all that’s required is making a broad enough target for IEDS and similiar. They already have all the training they need: each can drive a car (so can drive a Humvee, and with more pleasure) and all love guns.
    5) Regarding “stuff” (armor, etc) — see #4. *Not necessary*. Once all the Humvees are gone, all anyone will need is a gun. Guns are *cheap* (and NRA could provide further discount). So, for the price of a one-way flight (I’d be against the expense of bringing them back, since coffins cost too.) and a gun, we could *flood* Iraq with targets.*
    6) Release all those new “recruits” into the streets directly from the airport (they can walk, once the Humvees are gone).
    7) Repeat as necessary.

    Not only is this idea practical, but it has a long-term strategic merit as well; with so many, easily available, *American* targets, the various Iraqi factions will not have to kill off one another, thus reversing the course from the chaos setting back to normal.

    PS, I realise this would mean *millions*, not thousands of “troops”. But that’s easy to solve also, by lottery. Say, 50 thou a month between the two countries (Iraq and Afghanistan). Should do the trick, in a couple of years.

  • While writing, they seem to have stumbled into a paragraph about our overstretched forces, so they simply dismissed the point. “The troops do exist.” And that was that.

    I have got to start trying this. It would make this whole blogging thing so much easier rather than trying to find, ya know, actual creditable sources. We can learn something from the MSM.

  • ***Come on Steve. Kristol and Kagan know, and so should you, that three matching Risk cards would get us an extra 50,000 troops.***
    ———————————-Barry.

    Tell you what. Put those Risk cards in a brown paper bag, and set them next to an IED on a street in Baghdad.

    BOOM!!!

    Your 50,000 troops are a pile of confetti. Now go and have a parade with your confetti….

  • They already have cover for their sorry asses: if you tell them there aren’t enough troops, they’ll just blame Clinton for that.

  • You’re a cold woman libra. With people like you how did Poland ever get partioned? — Lance

    Catherine (of Russia) was even colder. ‘sides, I was just a baby in 1795

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