MoveOn primary draws unprecedented interest from presidential hopefuls

The Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary may be six months away, but the MoveOn Primary begins tomorrow — and everyone seems to be talking about it.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with MoveOn, it’s a liberal political group formed in 1998, motivated to try and end the Clinton impeachment fiasco. It was originally called “Censure and Move On,” since that is what the group’s sponsors wanted Congress to do.

MoveOn has since blossomed into a major political force, with 1.4 million members and two distinct legal arms — a 501(c)4 advocacy group and a political action committee. The group has demonstrated an ability to raise considerable sums of money for favored candidates (they once raised over $600,000 for Paul Wellstone in a matter of days) and a unique organizing ability, rallying thousands for anti-war protests earlier this year.

In light of the group’s prowess, MoveOn has announced the MoveOn Primary, featuring all of the announced Democratic candidates, which begins tomorrow morning and lasts exactly 48 hours. The primary is open only to Move On members (and membership, by the way, is free).

This isn’t just a fight for bragging rights or a fun web-based exercise; it’s very serious business. As Ron Brownstein noted in today’s LA Times, “It’s possible that more people will vote in this primary than in the Iowa and New Hampshire contests combined.”

There’s a lot at stake. MoveOn has said that if one of the nine Dems receives 50% of the vote in its primary, that candidate will get the group’s formal endorsement and generous financial support from the Move On PAC. Of course, getting 50% in a nine-way race can be tough, so MoveOn will hold a run-off primary in a month or so if no one reaches the plateau.

With this in mind, most of the presidential campaigns are actively encouraging their supporters to sign up as Move On members and vote in the primary. The folks at Draft Wesley Clark.com are so concerned about being left off the Move On ballot — Clark, of course, isn’t a declared candidate — that they’ve organized a petition campaign to add the retired general’s name into the mix.

I hate to spoil the surprise, and I know the voting hasn’t even started yet, but I think it’s safe to say that Howard Dean will win the MoveOn Primary. It’s not a question of whether he’ll win, it’s a question of how much he’ll win by.

There’s a number of reasons to draw this conclusion. First and foremost is Dean’s base of national support is almost entirely based on progressive Internet activists, the same folks who’ve been MoveOn members for years. Dean has been using the Internet to drive his campaign better than any candidate ever — no one else comes close. The MoveOn Primary is merely an extension of an already well-organized Internet presence.

Second, the Dean campaign has been pushing for a MoveOn victory harder than all of the other candidates combined. Over the last week, the “Dean Internet Team” has sent out emails to Dean supporters every other day reminding them to support the good doctor in the MoveOn Primary. I have a hunch there will be at least one more “reminder” going out today or tomorrow.

Third, the primary may be tilted towards Dean by design. As Dick Gephardt’s campaign learned last week, the moment new members signed up to join Move On, they received an email from Dean touting his candidacy. This prompted a spokesman for Gephardt’s campaign to say the primary “appears to be rigged.” Making matters worse for the group’s pledged neutrality, Zack Exley, the Move On PAC’s political director, has been a paid political consultant to the Dean campaign, as explained by ABC News’ The Note last week.

The email the Gephardt folks received was not exactly a sign of bias, but it points to a small flaw in the MoveOn system. When the group decided to have a primary, it hosted a straw poll to determine the top three favorites among Move On members. The three were Dean, Dennis Kucinich, and John Kerry. These three were then offered the opportunity to send campaign emails directly to all of the MoveOn membership, while the rest of the Dem field was not. While it may be an exaggeration to say, as the Gephardt campaign did, that the emails suggest a “rigged” contest, MoveOn does imply favoritism for those three. As Ron Brownstein put it, “That’s like an election board allowing only candidates from one side to hand out fliers outside a polling place.”

The smarter move would have been to allow each of the candidates the same opportunity to share their message with MoveOn primary voters before voting took place.

Nevertheless, with the results a foregone conclusion, most campaigns are busy trying to manage the expectations game. Joe Trippi, Dean’s campaign manager, said, “We’re going to do everything we can, but I think it will be a minor miracle to get to 50 percent with all these candidates in here.”

That’s nice spin, downplaying expectations, but Dean will win the MoveOn Primary. If I’m wrong, I’ll eat Tucker Carlson’s shoes on Crossfire.

And if you wanted to participate in this primary, it’s not too late. If you’re not a Move On member, you can register for free and vote tomorrow.

MoveOn has said it will announce the results on Friday. I’ll keep you posted.