Multiple national polls show a Democratic race in flux, while GOP race solidifies

February 4, 2008

For all the reasons we’ve talked about many times, national horse-race polls tend to be of limited predictive value. As is the case in the general election, the nominating process is a state-by-state affair. A candidate can soar in national polls, but if he or she is trailing where it counts, those national leads are meaningless (see Giuliani, Rudy, circa 2007).

That said, national polls are interesting for highlighting broader, general trends. And right now, the trend seems to be moving in one direction. Throughout the fall and early winter, Hillary Clinton’s national lead was around 20 points. Now, the race for the Democratic nomination is in such flux, some polls shows the lead evaporating. CNN just released its newest national poll, for example, which shows Barack Obama catching up to Clinton for the first time.

Obama, who trounced Clinton in January’s South Carolina primary, garnered 49 percent of registered Democrats in Monday’s poll, while Clinton trailed by just three points, a gap well within the survey’s 4.5 percentage point margin of error.

“Coming out of his overwhelming victory in South Carolina and followed quickly by his Kennedy family endorsements, Obama clearly has the momentum in this campaign,” said Bill Schneider, CNN’s senior political analyst. […]

The poll is consistent with other national surveys during the past few days. A CNN averaging of five national polls conducted in the last few days — a “poll of polls” — puts Clinton at 45 percent and Obama at 43 percent. Those five surveys were done by CNN/Opinion Research Corp., Gallup, Pew, ABC and CBS.

As for the general election match-ups — a constant source of debate between the two Democratic camps — the CNN poll shows Clinton leading McCain by three (50% to 47%), while Obama leads McCain by eight (52% to 44%).

Of course, CNN’s is just one poll, but there appears to be a fairly significant shift underway nationally.

* The latest WaPo/ABC poll shows Clinton’s lead down to four points, 47% to 43%. (The same poll found that McCain beats Clinton by three points, 49% to 46%, while Obama beats McCain by the exact same margin, 49% to 46%.)

* The latest CBS/NYT poll found Obama and Clinton tied nationally at 41% each.

* The Pew Forum’s poll gives Clinton her largest lead of any recent national poll — 46% to 38% — though the eight-point margin is down from 15 points a month ago.

* The new USAT/Gallup poll shows Clinton’s lead down to one, 45% to 44%.

It looks like a race that will go on for quite a while.

And what of the Republicans? Well, it’s actually kind of boring.

In the battle for the GOP nomination, McCain has the backing of 44 percent of registered Republicans, while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney received 29 percent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee got 18 percent and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas won 6 percent.

McCain took the top spot in most national surveys of Republican voters after his January 8 victory in the New Hampshire primary. […]

CNN’s “poll of polls” of the Republican race puts McCain at 45 percent compared with 24 percent for Romney.

It’s not enough that the Republican candidates are duller and less interesting than the Dems, but now the Republicans’ race is duller and less interesting, too.

A couple of things.

One, it’s great we have the more interesting race.

Two, it’s great the race in going beyond tomorrow, so we can get even more people engaged and act. The precentage of voters who vote in primaries but not the General because their candidate lost is…

… rather low, I imagine.

  • While national poll data is interesting, and probably encourages even more Democrats to come out and vote, I think the national polls are less meaningful at this stage than individual state polls; Democrats do not have winner-take-all contests, which means there is likely to be a pretty close division of delegates when tomorrow’s votes are all tallied – and that is going to keep the race going. It may get clearer, but it won’t be over.

    Which is good, because my state votes on the 12th, and it will be nice, for a change, to have the MD primary mean something to the outcome.

  • In New Hampshire, there was ONE poll, out of all of them, that showed a Hillary victory. I’m trying to remember which one it was. If anybody knows, please let me know.

    I’d be really interested in following that polls result from now on.

  • Romney is not a politician so he doesn’t have the slick delivery others do. But to me this is a positive. The politicians have messed things up…including McCain. We need a change and I think Romney’s the one. He can work with world leaders and will impress them instead of yelling at them with four-letter words like McCain.

    Romney took no pay from Massachusetts and only $1 from the Olympics. He’s spending his own money on the race. I believe he wants this job not for power or money, but to be of service to our country. I support him.

    Congratulations, Maine! Thanks for choosing a man with conservative values for America.
    Mitt Romney’s successful business experience, successful Olympic experience, and successful state governing success
    set him above all other candidates. His vision of using economic strength to combat terrorist and his Apollo plan for energy independence are also set him above all other candidates.
    He is a real leader who can lead American to build a strong economic and therefore a strong nation!
    Hope American people will elect Mitt Romney, the only competent candidate, to be our president.

    How could any moderates and liberals backs war monger McCain. McCain wants to bomb Iran and stay in Iraq for 100 years and promised for more wars. McCain says he wants interest rates to be ZERO out of complete ignorance for how interest rates affect the economy. I’d like to see him say that to retirees on a fixed income. McCain want 10 million illegal immigrants to stay permanently and legal immigrants who can vote do not support it. How could this country be secure if he is in power??? If McCain is nominee, as a republican I would rather vote Clinton than McCain. As least we know Clinton has some intelligence and lead the booming economic. McCain will lead this country to a total ruin with his lack of intelligence and no executive experience. Mitt Romney is an expert in economics and finance and is the man we need as president.

    If anyone can rescue the economy at this point, it would have to be Mitt. The US is $53 trillion in debt, that is $400K per household. The dollar is becoming useless and the Euro is now becoming the credible currency. Along with the national debt, most citizens are also deeply in debt. Tommorow the market is likely going to take a dump. If we don’t have a good economy you can forget foreign policy, fighting wars, or healthcare, funding for top education. The economy needs to be front and center, not religion, steriotypes and other trivial things.

    It’s time to remind the public about the Keating 5. Here the banks are falling appart and the economy is going into recession and we want to reward a slime ball like McCain who was wrapped up with Charles Keating, the guy who tanked Lincoln Savings & Loan, driving a previous recession? Go figure. Given what this did to the economy in the early 90’s, McCain should have just taken a baseball bat to the knee caps of the American people. Mitt is too kind to this power hungry geriatric sellout!
    John McCain has allowed countless billions of American dollars to be siphoned out of this country into Mexico alongside the countless billions of taxpayer dollars spent on health care, education, welfare, crime and mortgage bailouts for illegal aliens. John McCain, in his support for illegal immigration, has allowed Al Qaeda terrorist to use Mexican drug smuggling tunnels to enter the United States and plot to attack Fort Huachuca in southern Arizona. This litany of positions contrary to conservatism and American interests could go on and on.

  • I do not understand how everyone decides that McCain is the GOP’s best.

    I challenge You to make a stand. Stop being another part of the fall of this great country, just pushing the most popular candidate.

    During the debates, Ron Paul gets about one question for every four to five questions that are asked to McCain and Romney. In the last Republican debate, Paul wanted to answer one of the questions that McCain and Romney responded to, and he was told that they would ask him after two more questions.

    Do you think they asked him that question after the two questions? I’ll let you figure that out for yourself. I just don’t understand how everyone in this country can just let an unfair race take place and not have anything to say about it. Once again, America has been forced to look at the candidates that the media and government want instead of making a decision for ourselves.

    Now, even Mike Huckabee has been pushed out of the spotlight. Since he does not, in the media’s eyes, have a viable chance, he has been pushed from the questions. He still gets a few more than Paul, but he is being welcomed by Paul to the world of ignorance.

    People, please I beg of you, wake up and watch. Paul has won almost every single debate. Have you seen this mentioned once by the media? No, you haven’t, because they don’t want him to win. What you don’t see is the media throwing sucker punches while our heads are turned.

    All I ask is for an end to the blindness. Realize that this is your future if you keep letting the people that are making money off of it make decisions for us.

  • Given the poor track record of recent polls, and the time left before the election, this is just more silly media- driven horse race nonsense. It’s a wonder anyone is paying attention after a year of endless inside baseball musings, and so little attention to the substantive issues, which the MSM find boring and are too lazy to investigate.

    If, in fact, there are stirrings among constituencies not usually voting in strength, like the 18-24 set, or the under 35 crowd, then we may indeed have a historic presidential race, which will hopefully put the MSM in the sewer where it belongs – along with the handlers, consultants, PR types, and swift-boaters. 2004 had a higher turnout than 2000. Perhaps 2008 will go further, which will make stealing the election more challenging for the Rethugs.

  • Romney is not a politician so he doesn’t have the slick delivery others do.

    Line of the day. Yeah, Romney–who’s only been running for statewide or national office a scant 15 years, never breaks a sweat, and can reverse himself 100 percent in six weeks’ time–really is that breath of fresh air and honesty this country needs!

    At least you’re hardly alone out there, though; P.T. Barnum once famously guessed that people like you enter the world every sixty seconds…

  • I have a very simple question about Ron Paul – if Ron Paul doesn’t believe in the power of Government, why does he want to be President? Why have a government and a president, if the free market will take care of everything.

  • THIS CONCERNS YOU: Let’s see Barack (& Michelle) wage half as many campaigns as Bill & Hillary have. Or endure even one vicious, untetherd [e.g. The Arkansas Project] political attack, while most stood passively aside. Then let’s compare notes on grace, poise, tears and scars. And of those who argue, “Do we really want another Clinton Administration?”, maybe one-in-10,000[?] could have survived all the abuse they caught, because no [explitive deleted] liberals were going to get in the way of the pillaging of America…So now we have 500 billionairs, plus tens of millions (and a planet) in need of some form of economic, medical or ecological triage. Thank you Reaganomics!

    Maybe we need more Clinton’s, Gore’s, Brokaw’s, Kerry’s and Obama’s, etc., and fewer Limbaughs, Murdoch’s, Bush’s and Inhofe’s. After the 1980 recession, Reaganomics got the economy going. But bought-and-paid-for politicians turned policy making over to voracious corporate lobbyist who wanted free-markets to be our Nations only priority. So like livestock, we the people were fattened, and wages & benefits slaughtered…Now, unless you’re on a yatch, the human, economic and ecological carnage in America is horrendous. And a $600. tax rebate is the answer? Maybe we can’t not afford universal healthcare? Was [Michael Moore’s] SiCKO right; Give the health insurance racket the guillotine?

  • So, let me get this straight. A man who is introducing Clinton, chokes up, and seeing the emotion in him, her eyes fill, and this is “a joke?”

    Because of course, this has never happened to anyone, has it? And Clinton isn’t actually human, so her emotion could only have been completely fake and entirely political, right?

    What’s a complete joke is the way people deride her for being too much like a man, they mock her laugh, and demonize here when her eyes fill up or her voice cracks – you complain that she isn’t human and castigate her when she shows very human emotions that we have all experienced.

    Give me a fucking break. There is nothing this woman could do that would please you except to get out of the race and out of the way so that you can experience the joys of Barack Orgasma, whose next mailer will probably have him wreathed in heavenly light, lest we miss the I-am-the-Messiah-and-only-I-can-save-America message.

    Grow the fuck up. The absolute irony of people claiming to support the candidate of inspiration and unity, while simultaneously acting like middle-school Mean Girls determined to lift themselves up by tearing others down in the cheapest way possible is just too rich.

  • Phoebes: MSNBC reported today that Suffolk has Clinton leading Obama 40% to 39% in California. But honestly, this is only the second time I had ever heard of the poll. Had they not reported this, I would not have remembered the NH poll when I read your question at 4.

  • I have to acknowledge that the differences between Clinton and Obama are getting smaller. But Please vote for Clinton. She will make the history. Obama is capable. But he is still young and he could become next president after Hillary. I don’t see another woman candidate in the horizon after Hillary. So please give the most qualified woman candidate a chance.

  • [How the hell can a person, go to work in the morning…then come home in the evening, and have nothing to say?] READ MY LIPS: No new tax cuts!

  • Obama anwser up free ride by press

    Why did Obama pander to Idaho over guns at rally on Sat?
    http://news.aol.com/elections/story/_a/obama-mentions-god-and-guns-in-idaho/n20080202203509990028?cid=435
    Why when he claims that he can unite would he make comments that his supporters would not support Hillary but hers will support him–wow that is so devisive its made me not want to vote for him if he wins nom-he is fake
    http://firedoglake.com/2008/01/23/late-nite-fdl-obama-suggests-his-supporters-wont-vote-for-hillary/
    Look at this Obama’s church is rascist and makes comments against Jews too no fake emails its the facts
    http://pajamasmedia.com/2008/01/obamas_creepy_raceobsessed_chu.php

    http://bridgetdgms.wordpress.com/2008/01/27/obamas-church-is-divisive-and-racist/

  • “I don’t see another woman candidate in the horizon after Hillary. So please give the most qualified woman candidate a chance.”

    If we are voting based solely on qualifications, then what does the fact that there may not be another female candidate on the horizon have to do with anything? Seems like a mixed message.

    Truth be told, I think both Obama and Clinton are more than qualified to run this country (particularly with Bush having set the bar so low). But I just don’t think Hillary has the kind of personality to bring people together like Obama can. She doesn’t have that “leader” quality that I see in Obama. She’s just far too polarizing, and in the long run I see too many issues remaining in stasis and going unresolved because our politicians can’t find common ground under her leadership.

    I gotta go with Barack on this one.

  • I have been a lifelong Democrat. Everybody seems to be on the Obama bandwagon; however, I, along with every other Democrat I have spoken to, said they would vote for McCain over Obama. I do not like Obama’s inconclusive policies or his condescending demeanor. If it comes down to Obama vs McCain, I will vote Republican for the first time in my life, and so will many others.

  • Has anyone seen Obama’s mother in all of this? I understand that his mother is white and he was raised by her and his white grandmother. I watch the news often and have never seen her or heard from either one. Is he keeping her/them away from the public because she is white and he does not want this to interfere with the black vote? Hhmmmm makes me wonder. I remember when he first threw his hat in the race that the blacks said he was not black enough I guess you could call this stratagey.

  • Nancy,

    Barack Obama’s mother died of ovarian in cancer in 1995. What an uninformed and tactless assumption.

  • CNN (probably with that twit Wolf’s research) finds some polls to boost the media darling, Obama.
    Their story does not tell you that on 2/4 Rasmussen Reports gives Hillary a 9 point lead (49% – 40%) over Obama.
    Did they use this, or many others, to come up with their “poll of polls?”
    Since when do we use “poll of polls?”
    Spinning the polls.
    On another note, Reuter’s is passing a story around on the campaign spirit of Mrs. Obama.
    What I want to know is, will CNN criticize her when she attacks the other candidates, or is that criticism reserved for old, white, ex-Presidents who bring up legitimate criticisms?
    ug…50centsaday!

  • Is America ready for a President that listens to the people? That fights for the little guy? Unites us all? Wants to help those who want to HELP THEMSELVES?

    I say YES. We are.

    I frankly am tired of ‘politics as usual’ and so should everyone else.

    Let’s take back the White House, let’s NOT be afraid of Change and Forward and UPWARD Mobility.

    I am voting for Obama because I believe he can improve my life, my families lives, and other American’s lives.

    -ZsaZsaATL for OBAMA 08!!!!!!!

  • I find the absence from the spotlight of Obama’s mother’s corpse highly suspect.
    Clinton’s ability to cry is obvious fakery when she’s trying to get hold of the nuclear “football” and perpetuate our land wars in Asia.

    McCain looks so genuine compared to them!

  • Always Democrat said: “I have been a lifelong Democrat. Everybody seems to be on the Obama bandwagon; however, I, along with every other Democrat I have spoken to, said they would vote for McCain over Obama. I do not like Obama’s inconclusive policies or his condescending demeanor. If it comes down to Obama vs McCain, I will vote Republican for the first time in my life, and so will many others.”

    I said it elsewhere it is wrong to argue against [my] voting for Clinton because you’ll end up voting Republican’t. It’s just as true the other way around.

    Always, you are not a Progressive or a Liberal, clearly. You’re just a yellow dog Democrat who finally drew a line.

    And believe me, condescension is McCain’s middle name. The man regards 60% of Americans as little more than traitors and cowards for wanting us out of Iraq. He’s a lot worse than Obama that way. Have you seen his “John Cage” smiles when Ron Paul or Huckabee is talking? So I think that argument falls flat on its face.

    And in the end, remember, he wants to include you too.

  • having met Obama in person and listened to countless speeches, I am completely befuddled as to where “condescending” comes from. I have experienced him as nothing less than warm, compassionate, friendly and humble with people of every race, creed, demographic, and political leaning. and i do not need to threaten anyone that i will vote republican if clinton gets the nominations, because the Republicans are threatening to vote for her if she does too:

    call from a viewer on C-SPAN yesterday (along with similar sentiments), just prior to the UCLA rally: “I am a middle-aged Republican and if McCain wins the nomination I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life. I will vote for Hillary Clinton because Clinton will best empower the Republicans to regain control of the House and the Senate.” so you’ll have to forgive us Democrats who aren’t prone for voting for someone who best unifies the Republicans, even more than their own candidates.

  • re: always democrat

    if you’ve always been a democrat but, you will vote republican if obama gets the nomination, then in my eyes you’re just a retarded republican who has registered with the wrong party. both hillary and obama are head and shoulders above mcain, and while i favor obama, i would gladly vote for clinton in nov.

  • For those who care to know what Suffolk polls say, below is their latest polls:

    CA: Obama 40%, Clinton 39%;

    MA: Obama 46%, Clinton 44%.

    These’re the only Suffolk polls for the super Tuesday states.

  • The outcome of tomorrow’s polls will determine which of these two pollsters should be held credible. While most Reuters/CSpan/Zogby show Obama winning most states, SurveyUSA polls on the other hand show Clinton winning most states. Let’s wait and see people. Rasmussen polls are more flux.

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