[tag]Barack Obama[/tag] was in [tag]New Hampshire[/tag] yesterday for his first swing through the first primary state, and like everyone else, I was anxious to see how it went. Granite State voters aren’t easily impressed, they’ve seen plenty of buzz-worthy politicians come and go, and after a couple of generations of vetting would-be presidents, they’ve come to expect quite a bit.
With this in mind, I was a little surprised at Obama’s visit yesterday. If it was any indication of what’s to come, he’s likely to be a very major player in ’08.
Illinois freshman Sen. Barack Obama, borne aloft by a popularity bubble that seems to float higher by the day, did nothing to deflate it Sunday on his first trip to New Hampshire.
Neither did he move any closer to a declaration of candidacy for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, for which the New Hampshire primary will be a key early test. In appearances here and in Portsmouth, he was content to play with the notion and tease the expectations of overflow, adoring crowds.
[tag]Obama[/tag] said he was flattered and humbled, but also wary.
“I am suspicious of hype. The fact that my 15 minutes of fame has extended a little longer than 15 minutes is somewhat surprising to me and completely baffling to my wife,” he said at a news conference between events. “And I think what’s going on is people are very hungry for something new. I think they are interested in being called to be a part of something larger than the sort of small, petty, slash-and-burn politics that we have been seeing over the last several years. To some degree, I think I’m a stand-in for that desire on the part of the country.”
If anything, expectations keep setting very high bars for Obama, and he keeps managing to clear them, at least so far. At a book-signing in Portsmouth, 750 tickets sold within 24 hours, and 1,000 people showed up. In Manchester, at a state party celebration, 1,500 tickets were sold, and 1,700 people showed up. “We originally scheduled the Rolling Stones,” Gov. John Lynch said, “but we canceled them when we figured out that Senator Obama would sell more tickets.”
This just isn’t normal.
Everywhere he went, Obama was relatively non-committal about the immediate future, but he nevertheless laid out what sounded like the beginnings of a campaign theme: “America is ready to turn the page,” he said. “America is ready for a new set of challenges. This is our time. A new generation is prepared to lead.”
Locals, whom I expected to be tepid with their praise, seemed genuinely surprised.
“In all my history, nobody’s ever had a crowd this big, this early,” said Charles Campion, a veteran party strategist based in Boston, as he watched Democrats assemble Sunday afternoon in Manchester.
“I’ve never seen anything like this before this early,” said Mike Ballantine, a computer programmer from Nashua, as across the room Obama was surrounded by more than 100 people, many holding up his book and hoping for an autograph. “I mean it’s amazing. Really amazing.”
It is, indeed, but Slate’s John Dickerson, who was part of a massive media contingency following Obama yesterday, no one can live up to the expectations that we’re seeing now.
If he decides to run, Obama faces the difficulty of any politician campaigning against politics as usual — he can’t act politically or he ruins his brand. Running for president is exhausting, brutal and chaotic even if you’re using the old playbook. Obama is suggesting he will go through that slog under a new set of rules that include a higher standard of candor for himself and greater fairness towards his opponents than has ever been practiced in electoral history. It’s audacious and perhaps impossible.
Obama is a smart enough politician that he knows he has become too popular too fast. He knows that he benefits from being in the first stage of political courtship where he can get away with sweeping and grand generalities. “I am suspicious of the hype,” he said at his press conference. He downplayed the fuss over his potential candidacy, saying he is just the flavor of the moment and a mere “symbol or stand-in for a spirit that says we are looking for something different — something new.” It’s wise for him to temper expectations for his candidacy. If voters stay in such a deep state of affection, they may get disappointed some day when he doesn’t walk on water.
As it stands, if Obama wasn’t considered a top-tier contender before, he is now. And if he wasn’t considered a very likely candidate before, we can probably assume he’s going to throw his hat into the ring early in the new year.