Networks call Pennsylvania for Clinton, but margin unclear

April 22, 2008

MSNBC, ABC, CBS, and Fox News are all reporting that Hillary Clinton will win the Pennsylvania’s Democratic primary.

The margin of victory, however, will likely make all the difference. A narrow win for Clinton may end up looking like a moral victory for Barack Obama. Indeed, there are some reports this evening that the Obama campaign’s strategy of late was to force Clinton to spend heavily for a single-digit victory, which would leave her with limited resources for the remaining contests.

Obviously, a larger victory will do the opposite — increasing fundraising, pressuring superdelegates, etc.

Clinton told reporters earlier, “A win is a win.” If she ends up winning by a small margin, expect to hear that phrase a lot tomorrow morning.

I am so sick of this–she is tearing up the party for her own vanities! Please, please superdelegates put an end to this madness! I’m going to bed after a good stiff drink and try not to dream. I’m too depressed for anything else—maybe her win will be really small, so her “win is a win” crap won’t get any traction.

  • They will spin it any way they can – anything to keep the public from realizing that bush-clinton-bush-clinton is a recipe for MORE OF THE SAME.

    America was never meant to be ruled by a monarchy. Elections were meant to be open, free, and verifiable too – not the case in 2000, 2004, or in the TX, OH, and now PA primaries.

  • Obviously, a larger victory will do the opposite — increasing fundraising, pressuring superdelegates, etc.

    Interesting observation… a 12 point victory for Clinton now might end up proving all that spending by Obama to be a serious miscalculation. All they’re talking about is how broke HRC is right now… a big win might invigorate the fund raising machine in ways I wasn’t expecting.

  • Don’t just vent here, take a moment and write your local superdelegates. Gov. Kulongoski has received a couple of irate letters from our household for endorsing Hillary so far in advance of Oregon’s election and pointing out that Obama polls significantly higher than she does here. If he continues to support her, he will be going against the majority of his constituents after our election. For once, I’d like the race to be over before it gets to us. It’s ugly and I’m sick of it. Hillary should bow out.

  • Current read: 53/47 Clinton, with 20% of the precincts reporting. At 9%, it was 55/45 Clinton. Time to brew another pot of tea….

  • Correction: 54/46 Clinton, with 32% reporting. Some of the rural counties are still at 0%; others are more than half-way counted….

  • Clinton told reporters earlier, “A win is a win.” — CB

    Actually, Obama has said the same thing (in Politico, maybe? Can’t find the quote now). And, of course, it’s true. But, if that win “translates” to a net gain of just a few delegates, then it’s worth bupkies, long-term. Might be the why McAuliffe (the reason I didn’t support DNC until Dean took over) is pushing the popular vote, hard.

    The NYT’s map is fascinating, as usual.

  • looks like she is winning by less than 6%
    since Super Tuesday, Hillary has added 12 SuperDelegates, Obama has added 83.

    someone show her the door. please. and her husband, too.

  • The Obama followers want to get control of the democratic party. Call them neoProgressives.
    The want to hope, and believe.
    When the policies between the two candidates are so similar, I am amazed the contest has been so vitriolic.

  • The margin has been holding around 8 for a while, which will make for interesting punditry since many of the talking heads said a double-digit win was needed while others speculated that 5% was enough.

    Of course, if the CDs dont break well, even a fairly “good” win of 8% may not translate into a significant differential in delegates.

    Nonetheless, I am torn. I understand the “lets get this over with” feeling; I often have it myself. The delegate math is daunting if not impossible. But it is hard to say “Hillary should quit, she’s only in this for herself!” (as comment #1 did) when she is still winning – which is to say that there are still large states where a majority of Democrats opting to have a say prefer Hillary. It isn’t like she has sputtered to a non-competitive position like the other ex-candidates did. And I was reminded today that the margin among votes to date is something like 50.5 to 49.5 (in any event very close). Has anyone every dropped out under those conditions? I would highly doubt it.

    The reality is that the race, much to the chagrin of Obama supporters (and for that matter, Clinton supporters who figured they’d have won by now rather than be taking solace is what a close second place she is in), really is that close and close races go to the wire. Its something people aren’t used to seeing. And in a race that close, it may require going all the way to ensure that the losing candidate’s supporters feel they were treated fairly by the process. Hopefully that will be worth something in November.

  • “A win is a win.”

    Unless, of course, your state doesn’t count.

    Or if you’ve been mathematically eliminated. This is like winning a game by a run when you’re down ten games in September. Too little, too late.

  • Hillary has built a ten point lead.

    Two things worry me. One, is the assumption that the superdelegates are all secretly wanting to vote for Obama might be false, the other is that anyone who thinks Clinton can’t finnagle this thing for a win trusts Democratic politicians a lot moore than I do.

    I think Obama is going to be our candidate, but I can’t relax yet.

  • I think Mark Pencil is right. It doesn’t make sense for Hillary to quit since she is not literally mathematically eliminated. I just wish she wouldn’t campaign so negatively and in such a silly fashion. I wish Obama could put her away.

  • Dale said: “I think Mark Pencil is right. It doesn’t make sense for Hillary to quit since she is not literally mathematically eliminated. I just wish she wouldn’t campaign so negatively and in such a silly fashion. I wish Obama could put her away.”

    It’s pretty impossible for Senator Obama to win simply with pledged delegates by June 3rd. Therefore this thing will be decided by Super Delegates. Super Delegate votes don’t actually count until the first ballot at the convention. Therefore no matter what pledges or promises they make (and I expect most of them to honor them) Senator Clinton hasn’t really lost until August.

    If Senator Clinton doesn’t have a popular vote advantage by June 3rd (and that would include Florida) then I think she’s sunk. But if she keeps winning primaries between now and then I expect her to keep going.

  • The margin has been holding around 8 for a while, which will make for interesting punditry since many of the talking heads said a double-digit win was needed while others speculated that 5% was enough. — Mark Pencil, @12

    Double digit (and high double digit, at that) is needed to get her close enough in pledged delegates, to convince the supers that she’s a more viable choice. 5% would be enough to convince her to stick with it, rather than drop out. She’s got that much and she’s — obviously– been counting on it, since her ads are up in both Indiana and NC, even though she must be running on fumes, financially, by now.

    More and more I’m reminded of that old film (the first where I realised that Jane Fonda was actually an actress, not a visually stimulating toy), “They Shoot Horses, Don’t They?” Nobody wins and the whole thing is just too depressing for words.

    It’s pretty impossible for Senator Obama to win simply with pledged delegates by June 3rd. — Lance, @16

    It’s even *more impossible* for Hillary to win that way. Or any way, come to think of it. They shoot horses…

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