For those of us looking for red states that the Dems can pick up in November, look no further than New Hampshire. A new poll (via Kos) shows Bush’s approval rating has fallen significantly in the Granite State and both of the leading Dem candidates enjoy a sizable lead over the incumbent.
A new poll shows President George W. Bush’s approval ratings in New Hampshire have fallen to their lowest levels since his election.
In a University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll conducted this week, 47 percent of New Hampshire adults said they approve of the job Bush is doing as president, 48 percent disapprove and 5 percent are neutral. That’s down from a high of 71 percent in April and down 9 percentage points since October.
Looking ahead to the November election, 38 percent of likely voters said they would vote for Bush, and 53 percent said they would vote for Democrat John Kerry. In a match-up with Democrat John Edwards, 51 percent said they would vote for Edwards and 37 percent said they would vote for Bush.
This is very encouraging. New Hampshire has traditionally been a GOP stronghold — voting GOP in every presidential election from 1968 to 1988 — but has been shifting to Dem territory in more recent elections. Clinton won the state twice and Gore lost in 2000 by only 7,000 votes (Nader got over 22,000 votes, which could have easily shifted NH to Gore and, in turn, given Gore the presidency. Oops, I forgot we’re ignoring him…)
Granted, with only four electoral votes, the Dem nominee will need more than just New Hampshire to win the White House. Nevertheless, this race will likely be awfully close, and every state we can switch from red to blue will be critically important. Besides, poll results like these keep Karl Rove up at night.
I don’t mean to beat a dead horse, but I wanted to add that this is also a significant turnaround for Dem prospects in New Hampshire in just a couple of months.
In mid-December, the American Research Group published a NH poll. While Dean was riding high at the time, Bush enjoyed a big lead overall. When state voters were asked if they planned to vote for Bush or the generic “nominee of the Democratic Party,” Bush led by 17 points, 51% to 34%. When matched up against Dean, Bush’s lead was even bigger — 57% backed Bush while only 30% supported Dean, a 27-point gap.
Two months and two new leading candidates can do wonders.