The latest poll out of New Hampshire showed fairly predictable results. There were, however, a couple of noteworthy trends.
The poll, conducted by American Research Group and released late Friday, has a margin of error of +/- 4%.
Dean — 38% (no change from early November)
Kerry — 17% (down from 24% in early November)
Clark — 7% (up from 5% in early November)
Lieberman — 5% (up from 4% in early November)
and everyone else below 5%
The results hold few surprises. Dean has enjoyed a huge lead in New Hampshire for months and no one is going to catch him in this primary fight. Dean, however, won’t automatically be given the nomination with a New Hampshire victory (unless he wins big in Iowa, too.) After all, other recent victors in their respective Granite State primaries include Pat Buchanan, Paul Tsongas, Gary Hart, and John McCain — and none of these guys went on to win their party’s nomination.
Kerry’s fall is disappointing. A strong showing in Iowa can help Kerry immensely, but a poor showing in New Hampshire could prove fatal to his campaign. Right now, he’s closer to third place than second.
Clark has been campaigning diligently in New Hampshire the last few weeks, including unveiling TV ads in the state, so it’s probably a good sign that there’s been a modest up-tick in his in-state polling. The Clark team said they were aiming for fourth place in New Hampshire, which was obviously an attempt to lower expectations. I think it’s safe to say Clark has a solid hold on the third place slot and will be positioned nicely for the next slew of primaries in states like South Carolina, Arizona, and Oklahoma.
But my favorite item from the ARG poll is Lieberman’s numbers. In a word, they’re awful.
The same poll asked respondents about their awareness of the candidates and whether they view the candidates favorably or unfavorably. Of the nine, Dean, Gephardt, and Lieberman were the only candidates to have 100% name recognition. Yet, while 71% said they had a positive impression of Dean, and 50% had a positive impression of Gephardt, Lieberman’s support was embarrassingly low — only 34% held a positive view.
And herein lies the reason Lieberman can’t win and should just get out of the way. Lieberman’s favorability ratings were on par with those of Carol Moseley Braun and Dennis Kucinich. It’s crazy that a guy with 100% name recognition, who comes from a nearby state, and was the party’s vice presidential candidate just three years ago, has a 34% favorability rating in New Hampshire.