For the better part of his presidency, Bush has enjoyed stronger support in Washington Post/ABC News national polls than any other outlet. With this in mind, there are plenty of interesting numbers in the data released last night and they’re almost entirely bad for Bush.
Approval rating — So much for the post-Reagan “bounce.” Once again, these were the worst numbers of Bush’s presidency, at least among all Post/ABC polls. His approval rating is at 47%, while his disapproval rating reached a new high of 51%.
General election match-up — In a three-way race, it’s Kerry 48, Bush 44, Nader 6 among registered voters (Kerry’s lead is slightly bigger among the general population at large). In an identical question last month, Kerry and Bush were tied, so this clearly suggests that Kerry has more than withstood BC04’s “shock and awe” ad campaign.
Nader factor — In a head-to-head race, Kerry’s lead swells to eight points — 53% to 45% — so please don’t tell me the guy’s candidacy can’t affect the outcome.
Bush has lost his terrorism edge — Just half the country now approves of the way Bush is managing the war on terrorism, down 13 points since April. Barely two months ago, Bush comfortably led Kerry by 21 percentage points when voters were asked which man they trusted to deal with the terrorist threat. Now, the public actually prefers Kerry to handle our campaign against terror — 48% to 47%. This was Bush’s ace in the hole — and now it’s gone. Without it, he’s going to lose.
Whom do you trust? — All those negative attack ads from BC04 were supposed to convince voters that Bush is trustworthy while Kerry is a flip-flopper. Were the ads effective? You tell me — by a 52% to 39% margin, Kerry is seen as more honest and trustworthy.
Gender gap has reappeared — Last month, the Post/ABC poll showed a virtually non-existent gender gap. This month, it’s back. Among men, Bush’s approval/disapproval numbers were 52/46. Among women, it’s reversed — 43/56. It was even more startling in the election numbers. Men are leaning slightly towards Bush, 50% to 48%. Women, meanwhile, have abandoned Bush altogether, backing Kerry by a whopping 18 points — 58% to 40%.
Bush’s support is limited to the South — Bush’s nationwide numbers may be hovering in the mid-to-high 40s, but there’s a big different by region. Bush’s support is extremely weak in the East (40/59) and the West (41/58), soft in the Midwest (48/51), and tepidly positive in the South (54/44). Similarly, looking at the election numbers, Kerry is kicking Bush’s butt in East (66/31) and West (56/42), enjoys a comfortable lead in the Midwest (53/44), and is trailing badly in the South (44/54).
So much for that African American outreach — I guess it’ll take more than a few photo-ops with people of color to boost Bush’s standing in the African-American community. Bush’s approval rating among blacks is down to just 13%, while 85% disapprove. (No, that’s not a typo.) Looking ahead to the election, African Americans back Kerry over Bush, 93% to 7%.
Candidates and the issues — Kerry really shines on the issues. When asked which candidate they trusted to do the better job, Kerry held a double-digit advantage over Bush as the one to deal with health care (21 points), taxes (13 points), education (10 points), prescription drug benefits for the elderly (12 points) and smaller leads on handling international affairs (8 points), the economy (5 points), and the federal budget deficit (4 points). Bush led in only one area — handling the war Iraq — but even here his lead was modest (50% to 45%).
Support for Iraq falling to new depths — Only 47% say the war in Iraq was worth fighting, while 52% say it was not, the highest level of disapproval recorded in any Post/ABC poll. Seven in 10 Americans now say there has been an “unacceptable” level of casualties in Iraq, up six points from April and also a new high.
Americans see their standing in the world plummeting — Not only did respondents believe the war in Iraq has done little to contribute to long-term peace and stability in the Mideast, a stunningly large number noticed that our standing has suffered dramatically. 63% believe the war has caused long-term damage to U.S. relations with countries that opposed the war, such as France and Germany, while a whopping 76% believe the war has damaged our image in the rest of the world.
Those damn “connections” between Iraq and al Queda — The administration set out to convince the public of this and, alas, it worked. Even now, after countless reports explaining that it’s not true, the public still overwhelmingly believes Iraq provided “direct support” to al Queda. In fact, it wasn’t even close — 62% said there was support, while only 33% got it right.
Clinton still popular — The right still considers him the anti-Christ, but Clinton remains a popular national figure. Asked to look back at when Clinton was president, 62% of respondents said they approved of the way he handled his job (only 37% disapproved), the strongest his support has been since he left office. Even more surprising, when asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Clinton as a person, the nation was split right down the middle — 50% favorable, 49% unfavorable. Why is that surprising? Because his favorable personal numbers never got above 42% while Clinton was president after the Lewinsky scandal. The years have been kind to the Big Dog….