Newsweek poll — a new low for Bush

May 6, 2007

For all the talk about Dems needing to compromise with the Bush White House — Leon Panetta, we’re looking in your direction — the message from the electorate appears to be unambiguous.

It’s hard to say which is worse news for Republicans: that George W. Bush now has the worst approval rating of an American president in a generation, or that he seems to be dragging every ’08 Republican presidential candidate down with him. But According to the new NEWSWEEK Poll, the public’s approval of Bush has sunk to 28 percent, an all-time low for this president in our poll, and a point lower than Gallup recorded for his father at Bush Sr.’s nadir. The last president to be this unpopular was Jimmy Carter who also scored a 28 percent approval in 1979.

This remarkably low rating seems to be casting a dark shadow over the GOP’s chances for victory in ’08.

’08? At this point, I suspect Bush’s presidency is undermining the Republican brand for several election cycles, not just the next one. At 28% support, Bush is awfully close to where Nixon was when he was driven from office in disgrace. That’s not a good sign for the GOP.

For that matter, with negotiations ongoing between the White House and Congress, Bush’s stunning weakness and lack of support from the nation should remind lawmakers that they’re bargaining from a position of strength.

As for looking ahead, I’m still very hesitant to take any 2008 general-election polling seriously, but just to get a taste of where the political landscape is, Bush is, as we might expect, dragging down all of his possible Republican successors.

Obama beats the leading Republicans by larger margins than any other Democrat: besting Giuliani 50 to 43 percent, among registered voters; beating McCain 52 to 39 percent, and defeating Romney 58 percent to 29 percent.

Like Obama, Edwards defeats the Republicans by larger margins than Clinton does: the former Democratic vice-presidential nominee outdistances Giuliani by six points, McCain by 10 and Romney by 37, the largest lead in any of the head-to-head matchups. Meanwhile, Sen. Clinton wins 49 percent to 46 percent against Giuliani, well within the poll’s margin of error; 50 to 44 against McCain; and 57 to 35 against Romney. […]

All of the candidates can perhaps take some solace in Americans’ dissatisfaction with the way things are going in the United States at this time (only 25 percent are satisfied; 71 percent dissatisfied). American dissatisfaction ratings last hit 71 in the NEWSWEEK poll in May 2006, at the height of the scandal over secret government wiretapping inside the United States. The last time that even half of our survey respondents were happy with the direction of the country was in April 2003, shortly after the start of the Iraq war. With that many unhappy Americans, the nation should have a strong appetite for new leaders and new ideas.

When it comes to Democratic hopes, Bush is the gift that keeps on giving.

George W. Bush has destroyed everything he’s ever been associated with: Harken Energy, Arbusto, the Texas Rangers baseball team, the state of Texas, Iraq, the United States of America. Why should the Republican party be any different?

  • I’m worried about those 28% who STILL approve of Bush.
    Some camps just won’t let you leave. Jonestown comes to mind.

  • undermining the Republican brand for several election cycles

    You say that as if it were a bad thing.

    I do think we ought to keep a couple around, you know, in a zoo.

  • ‘08? At this point, I suspect Bush’s presidency is undermining the Republican brand for several election cycles…

    No. Just this one. Keep in mind the the Dem skill of taking a good thing and riding it straight into the ground. The current teamwork is refreshing, but we’ll have to see whether it won’t fall apart into squabbling once the next Pres is elected.

    but just to get a taste of where the political landscape is, Bush is, as we might expect, dragging down all of his possible Republican successors.

    But there are still opps for future GOP candidates running today, even if this cycle is a lost cause: run a a lower budget campaign, get your name and platform out there, and then use that experience for 2012. Kinda like Edwards did, except on purpose. Plus in 2012 and 2016, Republicans are gonna try to make empty promises concerning the necessary and painful decisions regarding peak oil and global warming, and attempt to use that against us.

  • At this point, I suspect Bush’s presidency is undermining the Republican brand for several election cycles, not just the next one.

    1974: Nixon resigns
    1980: Reagan elected

    Weep for our country.

  • The 28% solution:

    Attack. Impeach. Dustbin.

    Bush is wobbly and on his knees.
    Don’t back off.
    Do unto him as he has done unto the earth.
    Use your heaviest boots.
    Aim for the incisors that have sundered our world.
    Kick him in half:
    Maxilla this way.
    Lower jaw that way.

    The world does not owe Bush a living.
    The world does not owe Bush kindness.
    The world owes Bush but one thing: Unflagging scorn.

    Attack. Impeach. Dust bin.

    Anybody that tells you otherwise, hasn’t learned a damn thing in the last 10 years.

  • So when will Bush’s approval get to be the lowest ever? I’m putting my money on the week after Memorial Day when the summer driving season kicks into high gear and gas prices go through the roof.

    How long will Dems benefit from the Bush anti-bounce? I think it could be a good long while. Nixon may have lost the nation’s trust but he wasn’t intentionally trying to run this nation off a cliff at full throttle. I think many people are now scared of Republican philosophies coming to fruition. I think now there’s a deep-seated mistrust in the whole Republican way of running government. There seems to be a new crop of Democrats, from Obama and Edwards to Tester and Webb that have a fresh new way of looking at things. The Dems didn’t have that when we put forth Mondale and Dukakis as presidential material. The Dems have the deepest bench in politics right now and that gives them momentum.

  • 1974: Nixon resigns
    1980: Reagan elected

    Weep for our country

    Not really. Nixon really only wiped out Nixon – he didn’t wipe out the Republican brand, the way Hoover did on 1932. Bush and the “movement conservatives” have really wiped out the Republican brand for a good 20-30 years, since they are killing the Republican “strong card” on national security, the way Hoover wiped out the Republican strong card on economics.

    I really hope people start realizing that Hillary is the weakest candidate. We have to keep the damn Clintons from becoming an issue all over again and energizing all the Republicans to remember why they gotta go vote. Edward or Obama or Edwards/Obama or Obama/Edwards, and we win solid. Let Hillary understand she should follow the example of Ted Kennedy and become a leading Senator. Let Bill keep taking his show on the road around the world. But keep them out of the white house! We don’t need this dynasty business – that is death to republics.

  • Amen to you, Tom Cleaver. I echo your sentiments, exactly.

    Why would it be so bad for Hillary to become a “Lion of the Senate” as Ted Kennedy has become?

  • We’re still pretty early into Congressional investigations of the WH and BushBrat still has over a year left in office. I’m betting that his popularity ratings will be even lower than Nixon’s when he leaves office.

  • I’d say that wailing and gnashing teeth over the last 28% is a silly thing to do. You get larger percentages than that thinking the sun circles the earth. 28% is practically zero in polling terms, and it signals the complete collapse of effective political support for the president.

    I’d say that the Dems shouldn’t miss this opportunity to eviscerate the Republican brand, except I don’t think the Republicans will let them. Bush is riding his Iraq policy down to the ground like Major Kong riding the missile in Dr. Strangelove, and the GOP is right there with him.

  • The difference between now and 1974 is that republicans are a different breed. Back then, many repubs joined Dems in holding Nixon accountable. The current bunch would have defended Nixon long past the bitter end – just as they are doing for Bush today.
    They saved the republican brand by being responsible to their country and constituents. It put them in a position to turn it around 6 years later. Now, it’s so late in the Bush debacle that the only thing that can save them is the one thing they won’t dare consider – impeachment.

    I’m not sure it’s fair to blame a republican implosion entirely on Bush. It’s probably more accurate to blame it on the republican’s blind loyalty to all things republican. Bush merely illustrates how deep that sentiment runs.

  • Tom Cleaver: “Nixon really only wiped out Nixon – he didn’t wipe out the Republican brand”

    Exactly. Part of the reason Republicans in general are suffering is that there’s nothing voters can do to punish the lame duck president.

    Which is why I think Republicans can be persuaded to impeach Bush (and Cheney). Enough Republicans must be convinced to throw Bush & Cheney overboard for the sake of the party.

    To persuade them, I propose a bargain. Once the House impeaches the Dirty Pair, they hold open hearings on choosing a new Speaker. This can be done at any time and, under the Constitution, doesn’t necessarily have to be a member of the House. So by the time the Senate hands down a conviction, a new Speaker, chosen solely as an interim president, will be ready to take over. It could even be a Republican, for all I care. As long as it’s someone who pledges to undo the corruption of the current administration, then step aside in January 2009.

  • In 1930, the Dems picked up 53 seats in Congress. In 1932, they picked up another 97, plus the WH. They kept the WH for twenty years and Congress for longer. Are these the type of numbers we will see in ’08?

    The one good thing that could come out of this administration is that a couple of generations of Americans could turn their backs on the GOP for good. Of course it could take that long to clean up the mess these guys are making.

  • https://www.intrade.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=22739&eventSelect=22739&updateList=true&showExpired=false

    This page from Intrade.com is more important than any poll. It shows the odds that people are willing to pay based on who they think will win the Presidency in 2008. The results from intrade have been far better than any polling organization. (I don’t work for intrade and have no connection at all with them.)

    Basically, it boils down to the Democrats having about 56% chance, the Republicans 43.5% and someone else having about a 1.5% chance. I know that doesn’t add up to 100%.

    The important thing is that the numbers have been fairly consistent since late January. They were about 50/50 up until Christmas.

    The odds of the Democrats keeping the House has gone up to about 80% from 70% in early February and the odds of keeping the Senate are about 83% and has been bouncing around a lot this year but these market is very thin and is probably not as accurate.

    So IMHO, in conclusion, Bush is unpopular and he is hurting Republicans but not as much as you think,

    You really should look at the history of the Iowa market, started by one of my professors at the University of Iowa and at Intrade. I think that markets like these will significantly change polling firms methods in the future.

  • I’m worried about those 28% who STILL approve of Bush.

    I’m worried about those who bailed on Bush because his attitude towards the Constitution isn’t cavalier enough, because he hasn’t started enough wars, because he hasn’t killed enough non-believers…

    Not all of our ‘friends’ are our friends.

  • I bet Bush only knows Rasmussen poll numbers. Those have’n budged below 38% , ever. And, the same day Newsweek showed 28%, Rasmussen showed a bounce, to 40%.

  • I find it very interesting the number of analogys that have been used to describe Bush and the Republican party. Sinking ship, millstone/albatross around the neck of, gangrenous leg. Whats interesting is that all of these analogys imply that to survive somthing needs to be removed. I don’t believe that this thought has bubbled up to the surface, but it is definitly swimming around in the subconscience. At some point the republican leadership is going to realize, that to save the party Bush/Chenny have to be jettisoned. I just don’t know if they are going to figure it out on time.

  • The more things change, the more they remain the same… “Half of all Americans doubt whether they can trust President George Bush four months after he took office, according to a nationwide poll, commissioned by Time magazine and CNN. The poll follows in the wake of Senator Jim Jeffords’ defection from the ruling Republican party last week. The crisis, which tips the balance of power in favour of the Democratic party in the Senate, has raised questions about the Bush administration’s decision to push ahead with a strongly conservative agenda in spite of its weak mandate. Mr Jeffords renounced his party membership in protest at what he saw as the government’s hardline approach on education and the environment.” -The Guardian, May 28, 2001 http://www.guardian.co.uk/bush/story/0,7369,497613,00.html

  • How many of those 28% are simply trying to avoid having their party fielding a president less popular than their poster boy of the Democrats, Jimmy Carter. (Bless him.)

    If lie detectors were allowed while administering polls, I suspect we’d have 10% approval rating.

    I doubt much of the fascist bloc of the GOP has abadoned our Decider-In-Chief. When it came to weakening civil rights, He trumps Ford, Nixon, Reagan, and Bush 41 combined.

    (Granted, Nixon suffered the dreadful handicap of having a pinko, liberal congress slowing him down. He DID try.)

  • Re Comment 23:

    Don’t use Dirty Pair to describe Dubya and Dick. That is the name of the two most loved girl characters in anime (japanese cartoon) fandom. While we adults probably won’t care, the otakus do and we need their votes!

  • Ummm…just where in “Comment 23” are a bunch of silly cartoons mentioned?

  • I wonder too what it’s going to take to shake loose that 28% as well as Republican reps and senators from their inexplicable Bush loyalty. I suspect whatever it is, when it happens it will in big numbers, not just a little trickle here and there. It will just take a few to start the tidal wave. And then what will poor little Georgie do? Sit on Condi’s lap and cry?

  • I wholeheartedly agree with #8. Hillary should stay in the Senate. As much as I love Bill, the Democrats need to avoid his sleeze factor, leaving it firmly on the Republicans. Both Edwards and Obama represent a different kind of politician. I hate not supporting the female candidate but just can’t get behind Hillary.

  • Steve @ #23: “Ummm…just where in “Comment 23″ are a bunch of silly cartoons mentioned? ”

    Now there’s a paradox!

    Sorry, otakus, for the misappropriated reference. I meant to call Bush & Cheney & Condi the Getter Robo G of Washington.

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