I enjoyed the excitement of yesterday’s seven primaries, but ultimately, everything went pretty much according to plan. Clark won Oklahoma, Edwards won South Carolina, Kerry won everything else, and Dean lost everywhere. That was what the polls said was going to happen and, in this case, the polls were right.
Kerry looks increasingly inevitable with every passing week, but if he were hoping to narrow the field of competitive candidates with a surprising victory or two, that didn’t happen. Sure, Lieberman withdrew, but no one’s really considered him a serious candidate for quite a while.
The Final Four that came out of New Hampshire — Kerry, Clark, Edwards, and Dean — don’t appear to be going anywhere for a while. For those of us who welcome a prolonged primary fight that keeps our guys in the public spotlight for as long as possible, that’s good news.
I know Howard Dean gave himself a pass on yesterday’s seven contests, but there’s no reason not to hold him to the same standard as the other candidates. After all, he was in the lead and enjoyed significant grassroots support in several of these states as recently as late-December. Yet, it was another bad day for Dean. Even with lowered expectations, he said Monday he might win New Mexico (he came in third) and he might come in third in South Carolina and win a few delegates (he came in fifth and got no delegates). Not exactly a momentum builder going into this weekend’s fights in Michigan and Washington state.
If you have to pick a “big winner,” it’s obviously Kerry. He won five of the seven primaries, now enjoys an enormous lead in the delegate count, and looks all-but unbeatable at this point. If there’s a “big loser,” it was Lieberman. He campaigned heavily in Delaware, hoping to eke on a victory and stay in the race. Instead he lost by 39 points. Ouch.
In the off-chance you’re relying on me for the election results, or if you’re one of my handful of international visitors who can’t find the results in your local news, here’s what happened, showing only candidates who won delegates and/or came in double digits:
Arizona
Kerry — 43% (30 delegates)
Clark — 27% (22 delegates)
Dean — 14% (3 delegates)
Delaware
Kerry — 50% (14 delegates)
Lieberman — 11% (0 delegates)
Edwards — 11% (0 delegates)
Missouri
Kerry — 51% (36 delegates)
Edwards — 25% (20 delegates)
New Mexico
Kerry — 42% (10 delegates)
Clark — 21% (7 delegates)
Dean — 16% (4 delegates)
Edwards — 11% (0 delegates)
North Dakota
Kerry — 51% (10 delegates)
Clark — 24% (4 delegates)
Dean — 12% (0 delegates)
Edwards — 10% (0 delegates)
Oklahoma
Clark — 30% (15 delegates)
Edwards — 30% (13 delegates)
Kerry — 27% (12 delegates)
South Carolina
Edwards — 45% (28 delegates)
Kerry — 30% (17 delegates)
Sharpton — 10% (0 delegates)
Tale of the tape, taking a cumulative look at yesterday’s results:
Victories
Kerry — 5
Clark — 1
Edwards — 1
Top-Two Finishes
Kerry — 6
Clark — 4
Edwards — 3
Total Delegates Won Yesterday
Kerry — 129
Edwards — 61
Clark — 48
Dean — 7