I half expected the latest Newsweek poll to show Bush with a little bump in popularity, which often comes immediately after the State of the Union. Not this time.
Simply put, there was almost no good news for the White House in this poll.
Newsweek’s poll showed Bush’s approval rating dropping to 50%, the lowest rating of his presidency. Likewise, 44% said they disapprove of the president’s job performance, which is also the worst Bush has done since his inauguration three years ago.
It gets better (or worse, if you’re Karl Rove). When poll respondents were asked if they’d like to see Bush have another term as president, 44% said yes, but 52% said no. This is the first time since Newsweek began asking the question that a majority indicated they’d like to see Bush lose in November.
And if you’re a John Kerry supporter, the Newsweek poll was particularly good news. Not only did the data show Kerry in the national lead for support among Democrats, but the same poll showed Kerry leading Bush in a hypothetical general election match-up, 49% to 46%. (Two weeks ago, Bush led Kerry 52% to 41%.)
In fact, Newsweek asked respondents about match-ups between Bush and all of the major Dem candidates. Kerry did the best, leading Bush by 3 points, while Clark did the second best, trailing by just one point, 48% to 47%. Howard Dean did the worst, though he only trailed by 5 points, 50% to 45%. True to form, Edwards showed the biggest improvement, trailing Bush by just three points in this poll, 49% to 46%, after trailing Bush by 16 points in a Newsweek poll two weeks ago.
All in all, I’d say the reports of Bush’s invincibility have been greatly exaggerated.